Cement look at infrastructure speed glass see Energy saving theme

In the second half of the year, the cement industry will be better than the first half, annual production growth can reach 15%. The infrastructure pull effect will continue, better than the first half of the year.　　A recovery in real estate investment will spur demand for cement to grow more than expected. Glass industry is expected to remain low in the second half of the year, building energy-saving and photovoltaic glass will remain an investment theme.　　To give the cement industry "stronger than the big city", the glass Industry "neutral" investment rating. Cement: Output exceeding expected downstream demand for cement is divided into three aspects of infrastructure, real estate and new rural construction, and this year cement prices bottomed out in 2 March. The explosion of capital investment has become the main driving force for the cement industry to turn warmer. Investment in urban fixed assets grew 32.9% in January-May, more than 25.6% in the same period last year.　　In the same period, real estate investment growth of only 6.8%, the growth rate fell 24.9%, cement demand for the growth of small contribution.　　From the regional point of view, the growth rate of fixed assets investment is high, and the supply of the central and western region cement production growth is significantly higher than the national average level, while the eastern region due to low investment, cement demand remains sluggish.　　The second half of the cement industry outlook: Real estate investment rebound, is expected to drive cement demand exceed expectations. In the second half, the cement industry will be better than the first half of the year, the annual production growth can reach 15%. Infrastructure and new rural construction of building materials needs to pull more clearly, and the rebound in real estate investment may lead to the demand for building materials exceed the expected growth.　　The infrastructure pull effect continues to deepen and demand is expected to be better than the first half. Overcapacity will be exacerbated. January-April National cement industry increased capacity of 91.72% year-on-year. Sichuan accounted for 13% of the country's new capacity. Regional oversupply has led to a fall in the price of cement in Sichuan since the end of April. In the region, northeast, east China, South Central Cement industry investment growth rate is lower than the national average, the future supply and demand situation is relatively optimistic. It is expected that the annual production of cement production capacity in 2009 not more than 250 million tons, growth of about 25% per cent last year, the second half of the supply risk is less than the first half, but the cement overcapacity situation will intensify in 2010.　　Industry shuffle inevitable, good for large cement enterprises. Glass: Building energy-saving theme glass industry is still in the bottom of the recovery in the first half. From the price of glass products, ordinary flat glass price fluctuations are still large, but float glass for three consecutive months to see signs of stability.　　Since the 4 quarter of last year, more than 40 float glass production line of large-scale production, enterprise inventory has been falling for 5 consecutive months.　　The second half of the glass industry outlook: building energy-saving and photovoltaic glass will remain an investment theme. The trend of flat glass boom to bottom up is basically established. From the point of view of demand, although there are good expectations, but with the market improved, production of glass production line will be gradually production.　　At present, there are about 250 glass production lines, 40 production lines can increase the existing production capacity of 20%, oversupply of the situation will depress industry profits. The supply gap of building energy-saving glass is still large. The utilization rate of energy-saving glass in China is less than 10%. As the best energy-saving effectLow-e Glass, China and developed countries still have a big gap. The energy-saving glass market starts, the future demand space is huge. "Eleven-Five" period, China will add 2.1 billion square meters of buildings, the renovation of the old building 3.8 billion square meters, energy-saving consumables will exceed the total consumption of 4 trillion yuan. In the next 10 years, the state for energy-saving subsidies and conventional consumption and the purchase of energy-saving products of up to 5 trillion yuan, even if only 5% for building energy-saving glass and doors and windows, also reached 250 billion yuan.　　China's low-e glass production line is mainly concentrated in CSG, Yao-skin glass, Fu Yiu glass and other production enterprises. The Chinese version of the solar roof plan will promote the rapid development of PV glass demand.　　Domestic solar industry is a high prosperity industry, but affected by the global economic crisis, into the adjustment period, is expected to 2009, 2010 growth rate of 15% and 20%. Investment strategy Real estate investment has become a key factor affecting the recovery of building materials industry and market trend.　　The second half is expected to rebound in real estate investment will become a big probability event, to give cement industry "stronger than the big city", glass Industry "neutral" investment rating. Cement industry: The eastern region of the real estate recovery flexibility, the central and western regions by the construction of large. Recommended two types of companies: one, with integration capacity, and demand by real estate investment rebound pull larger, the new supply pressure of the smaller Middle East company-Conch Cement, Yatai Group, Tower Licensing Group, Jidong Cement, huaxin cement.　　Second, the advantage of regional leaders (in this round of infrastructure projects to benefit the larger) area, and the supply and demand side of the situation is better, such as horse racing industry, Qilian Mountains and so on. Glass industry: the need for warmer needs time, but the state to promote energy conservation and emission reduction policy, and building energy-saving and opto-Electronic building integration has a greater correlation between the listed companies will have a trading opportunity, continue to be optimistic about the South Glass, Avic Sanxin, Jin Jing technology. (Century securities Liang)