Certainty and uncertainty of mobile electricity quotient

No doubt, the tide of mobile internet has been hit, because the first smartphone shipments exceed PC shipments, the number of Chinese mobile phone users more than 350 million, about 70% of the total number of netizens. In this context, mobile electric operators are particularly eye-catching, because the mobile is the result of mobile interconnection.

So what about the year of mobile interconnection? "2011 Taobao Wireless E-commerce Data Report" published on February 20, 2012 (full report: Http://vdisk.weibo.com/s/2F1GW). The report tells us: "2011 Taobao Wireless Cumulative transaction amount of 11.88 billion, compared to 2010 1.8 billion, doubled 6 times times, the 2012 cumulative transaction is expected to maintain more than four times times the increase." ”

"I'm afraid of uncertainty," says financial tycoon George Soros. In this emerging field of opportunity and challenge for mobile, there is no doubt that there is uncertainty, and who will be the winner from today's uncertainty to predict tomorrow's certainty. From the "2011 Taobao Wireless E-commerce Data Report," We can sum up how much certainty? What important uncertainties can be analyzed?

First Look at certainty:

1, the end of the dispute has been basically determined. The iphone-represented touchscreen phone, the ipad-represented tablet, will be a factor for a long time. Thanks to the great jobs, the Apple followers-the Android camp. Mourning the first-time dead: Nokia, BlackBerry, Windows Mobile.

2, the operating system dispute has been basically determined. Apple iOS, Androping points, Symbian is difficult to pull. Interestingly, the end of the battle is the operating system determinism, closed Apple and open Google the same, once a single big Nokia did not lose in the open closed or not, but lost in the user experience.

3, although we know that a long time will be combined-similar computer browser such a unified terminal form will eventually unified lake, but the client is still the mainstream. "In 2011, client-side transactions grew rapidly and the Q4 turnover ratio reached 37% per cent, and clients are becoming the main portal for mobile shopping," the report said. ”

4, the user is accustomed to "male left female right". The data show that the sex ratio of mobile internet users has tended to 1:1. At the same time, in addition to the waterfall we have observed last year, Mushroom Street, Beautiful said outside the hot, a Amoy comparison tells us: Search price comparison of the users are more men, Comparison category for the number of digital products.

Certainty means that there is no chance, for example, that the other operating system represented by Windows has a slim future and that other types of terminals have no chance. Uncertainty means: There is a chance! We look at uncertainty:

√ Where does the browser or client go? The current client such as Windows popular in the beginning of the program, do a simple thing must download a client, duplication, cumbersome, wasteful, difficult to maintain. A long time must be divided, a long time will be combined, the unified standard will be achieved.

√ Where is the logical shopping portal? In the computer age, the main shopping portal of the browser era is search engine, such as shopping search engine-taobao. The client temporarily disrupted such a pattern, in addition to clear direction of the wireless Taobao, other electric dealers show a disorderly situation. Most electric dealers still use browsers as portals to keep up with the computer age; a few start experimenting with the "client + browser" approach; others begin with the terminal box ROM, forcing the bundle. Terminal, ROM, browser is obviously difficult to the final outcome, the new entrance who is the main river is a huge doubt.

√ How the brand of personalized times spread? The end of the change determines the future of the brand is personalized. The recent rapid development of Facebook confirms this view. What will this social brand eventually develop?

Look forward to next year wireless Taobao give us more definite answer.