Chen Yonglu: Chasing backward stock game is not finished

The QE3 of Hong Kong stocks after the rise of the wave, not everyone to catch up with the car, because investors believe that regardless of QE3 and http://www.aliyun.com/zixun/aggregation/39048.html "> The ECB unlimited money to buy debt, The stimulus for the real economy takes time to take effect, so the global investment market is now false.

As I have analysed before, since the tsunami, the global investment market is not the real situation of speculation, but the anticipation of a recovery, but the situation is now the same.

In Europe and the United States under the premise of water, we are afraid of vicious inflation, so the funds are also speculation into the investment market.

However, the world's rise in the market, it is worth noting that the economic cycle-related investment tools, and the trend of inflation-resistant tools significantly different, the most obvious distinction is the trend of crude oil and gold.

Market speculation against inflation

In the past, when the market was speculating on inflationary expectations, basically, the rally in commodities was comprehensive, but only gold was present, so the investment taste of the market is obviously turned, simply put, it is mainly about speculation against inflation rather than economic recovery.

Earlier on in this column, we have pointed out that Hong Kong stocks have turned around, but October is a traditional "stock disaster month", and a lot of technical analysis in the market recently means that Hong Kong stocks have been faced with greater adjustment pressure in the October, and whether there will be a stock disaster in October.

In all fairness, a single look at the current objective card is not high probability, the reason is in the financial flow level analysis, the United States and the deterioration of the situation is not large, the outflow of funds did not cavalry back to the urgency, coupled with China's "18" has set a meeting time, in the hope that the

This week, it's better to lose pounds.

However, it is worth noting that Hong Kong stocks have risen to the present level and that the strategy is to change, and at the very least, the shippers should start to lose their pounds on the road when they rise again this week.

At the beginning of the year, I suggested that the overall investment portfolio must increase the share of the income-bearing shares, and now the biggest feature of the Hong Kong stock market is that the common stocks and REITs run the whole race, reflecting that the risk aversion of the markets still exists, and if there is such a bottom, it is still

Short-term continuation of shipping stocks backward

In addition, the current market has been clearly turned to continue to play chasing backward game, economic cycle stocks such as shipping, industrial sectors, especially shipping stocks such as CSCL (601866, shares bar) (02866), China Sea Development (600026, shares bar) (01138) in the Baltic Sea dry bulk rise in the spur of the surge, Short-term will continue to chase backward.

In addition, the resources unit is also stirring up steel stocks (000898, shares bar) (00347), Ma On Shan Steel (00323) technology seems to be upward breakthrough, in fact, such shares are also speculation to revive the concept of demand, but to note that as mentioned above, economic recovery is only a vision, such as the plate occasion speculation, The overall need to turn the trend is still difficult, the main reason is not fully cooperate with the strategy, only short-term speculative follow-up.