Chengdu High Speed Valuation puzzle: Minimum 3.1 max 4.92 Yuan

July 8, Chengdu high-speed preliminary inquiry and site promotion will be moved to Shanghai. On that day, more than 60 organizations gathered to promote the scene again.　　The same as the company's senior management team in Shenzhen, the same, institutional investors still on the company's valuation and market development prospects for further consultations and forecasts. The day before, the IPO main underwriter Galaxy Securities announced the two-tier market 4.2-4.92 investment value range. With this as the axis, the major securities companies corresponding to their own forecast price began to comprehensive consideration. According to the reporter understands, the reference different valuation system, many institutions currently anticipates the inquiry interval is still the dispute unceasingly.　　The lowest price as 3.1 yuan, slightly lower than the Chengdu high speed of the H-share close of 3.17 yuan yesterday, the highest price is more than the Galaxy securities given the 4.92 yuan valuation high. "The agency's offer will be launched tomorrow (July 9) and is still not a good guess."　　"Tangyong, chairman of Chengdu high-speed, who is busy recommending work, said. Differentiation of valuation System "reference to the H-share premium is not necessarily justified, and H-shares can only be used as a reference and cannot be considered as the correct valuation hub." At present more should consider domestic capital market situation. Wei Fang, chief trade analyst of Jin Yuan Securities, said, "from the market liquidity, valuation considerations should be more to the domestic a-share market, that is, the domestic market pricing."　　"According to the latest research report on CITIC Securities, according to the A+H premium rate valuation method, as of July 3, 57 a+h shares of the h/a stock (RMB) average of about 56%, of which 3 a+h-share road companies (deep high-speed, Nanjing-Shanghai high-speed, Anhui high-speed) h/a share price (RMB) on average in 67% or so.　　According to the Securities Company analyst Xie Military forecast, assuming that as of the end of the inquiry, Chengdu High Speed H shares of HK $3.3, based on the calculation of its shares on the first day of the stock price of about 4.4 yuan, if the new shares 20% profit interval, the price of its inquiry for 3.47 yuan/share. However, the valuation of Galaxy Securities is based on the DCF absolute valuation method and the industry comparable company relative valuation method.　　According to these two valuation methods, the space of valuation is floating.　　According to Citic Securities Research report, the company's DCF valuation is based on the company's existing road production and business, did not consider the existing two road investment projects, and did not consider the future acquisition of Nanchong high-speed, and its valuation of 5.43 yuan/share. And from the PE valuation, the domestic a-share major road companies in 2009 and 2010, the average PE is 18 and 17 times times, H-shares of the average PE for 14 and 15 times times, foreign Highway average PE 13 and 10 times times, can give its a A-share 2009 14-18 times of PE, The company 2009 diluted EPS for 0.258 yuan, the corresponding reasonable valuation interval of 3.6-4.6 yuan.　　From PB look, can give its A shares 2009 1.8-twice times PB, corresponding reasonable valuation interval is 5.16-5.7 yuan. But only in the market generally expected price per share of about 4 yuan, according to the stock issued 0.2 per share1 yuan conversion, its static P/E ratio will reach 22 times times, but not only higher than the current a-share of other high-speed shares, but also to Chengdu high-speed H-shares to maintain an exorbitant premium. Those who participate in the inquiry said that all should be market-oriented, the reform of the IPO mechanism is to market, so more by the market and the company's fundamental to decide.　　The [page] takeover effect is hard to solve, but the actual forecasts are still subject to changes in the company's subsequent assets. Wei Fang believes that in the short term, the company price will be around 4 yuan. After the listing, its share price is likely to climb to more than 5, there is a larger profit space, if the follow-up there are asset-optimized acquisitions and other acts, the price will rise.　　Therefore, it is not accurate to predict the reasonable valuation of the market condition simply. July 7, Chengdu High Speed Chairman Tangyong in the inquiry promotion meeting revealed that from this year, Chengdu high-speed will be to the Lego high-speed and table calculation, the listed companies are expected to contribute to the net profit of more than 100 million yuan.　　According to the Galaxy Securities estimates, the next year into the music high-speed contribution of the net profit will reach 158 million yuan. It is reported that the previous one months, Chengdu high-speed with its own funds 1.098 billion ahead of the completion of the high speed of the acquisition, for its return a shares to win market recognition.　　And in the listing to raise capital, some of the funds will also ease the bank loans, release financial pressure. And then, at the end of this year, Chengdu high-speed also plans to buy 215 kilometers of Nanchong high-speed and 36.64 kilometers of Chengdu-Chongqing high-speed Sichuan section, so that the listed companies have the highway mileage from 470 km to more than 700 kilometers.　　According to the company's executives, in order to complete the acquisition, Chengdu high-speed will also carry out a partial debt-type financing.　　According to public information, as at December 31, 2008, Nanchong high speed audited total assets of 9,357,640,000 yuan, net assets of 2,098,670,000 yuan, operating income of 790.8 million yuan, including toll income of 781.79 million yuan, net profit of 274.73 million yuan, about Sichuan Chengdu 2008 net profit of half.　　Some market personage thinks, if according to Nanchong company the next three years of toll growth will not be less than 20% to expect, by 2010 Nanchong company operating income will be expected to exceed 1 billion yuan, net profit will exceed 400 million yuan. However, it is more certain that, compared to the current Chengdu high-speed highway under the domestic average level of the charges, it has been brewing further price increases. The company also revealed that the current weight of the charges are 80% discount, and starting next October, the concession began to stop.　　This Chengdu high speed weighing charge will have 20% room for improvement.　　However, Citic Securities analyst Xie joined the army and believes that it is expected that the future will continue to face large-scale investment and acquisition of the interest rate risk, the high speed and into high-speed land leasing gold fluctuations. The company's H shares have risen for 4 consecutive months, rising from 1.22 Hong Kong dollars to a peak of HK $3.62, the biggest increase of 197% in the June, ChengduThe speed has risen by 35.75%.