China construction or frozen capital 1.6 trillion to be "shockproof" next week

Every reporter Li Wenyi long-lost "Elephant stock" or came to us. As a large central enterprise known for its construction of "high, big, fine, sharp and new" projects, Chinese Architecture (601668,SH) will be issued in a a-share market next week and become the first mega-market unit issued after the IPO restart, with 12 billion shares of its total issue shares to be financed more than 40 billion of the size,　　is likely to be the highest level of new equity financing this year. He who has not arrived is the first to come.　　After the release of the three or four Sichuan-Chengdu-Chongqing (601107,sh), the inter-bank market repurchase rate still maintained a higher momentum, short-term capital prices all higher, it is not difficult to understand that most of these or go straight to Chinese architecture. After preliminary calculation, the Chinese construction or will freeze the capital of 1.6 trillion yuan, of which the internet frozen 900 billion yuan. Analysts point out that China's construction has such a strong power to absorb gold, two-tier market funds will inevitably be diverted.　　According to historical experience, the market will fluctuate next week, but the overall trend is unchanged. Purchase number of households or more than Sichuan Chengdu yesterday, the online distribution of 350 million shares of Sichuan Chengdu, attracted 522.038 billion of funds to participate in online purchase, resulting in online check rate is too low, the company had to start the callback mechanism, the net released 375 million shares.　　At the same time, 3.9844 million online purchase of effective account number, is home run more (002277, closing price 37.9 yuan) more than 1 million of the number of users of more than twice times, large stocks of the attraction of funds can be seen.　　Analysts pointed out that after the IPO new deal, institutional investors can only choose one of the ways to purchase from the Internet, the net, but because the online check rate is less than the proportion of the distribution under the net, most institutions still choose the net placement, so in fact, the new online is based on small and medium-sized investors as the main force, the average capital of each household is It is true that several new shares have been released since then. Sichuan Chengdu-Chongqing online subscription for an average of about 131,000 yuan per household, and Guilin three gold (002275, closing price 32.46 yuan) 126300 yuan/households, million horse cable (002276, before the closing price of 27.45 yuan) of 122900 yuan/households, home run more 184,000 yuan/household difference is not big.　　As a result, the Chinese construction distribution of the online average account subscription funds should be in the 120,000 ~18 million.　　At present, the agency's inquiry interval is generally 3.4 yuan ~4.3 yuan/shares, that is, about 4 yuan, the lower purchase price or can attract more small and medium-sized investors to participate in the purchase, then, the online purchase of Chinese construction of the number of households may be more than Sichuan Chengdu, optimistic estimate in 4 million households ~500 million　　If the amount of the purchase account and the new funds per household to take the above forecast average, then the Chinese construction of the online purchase funds or will be 675 billion yuan. But this data is only a forecast for small and medium investors. If the Chinese building price in 4 yuan/share, according to its online distribution program, 7.2 billion shares that financing 28.8 billion yuan, so, 675 billion yuan purchaseThe online check rate of funds will be as high as 4.27%, set the proportion of the net under the distribution. In addition to the online purchase of the shares do not have a 3-month lock-up period, break the risk is very small, so do not exclude some agencies to abandon the network under the placing of online subscription.　　Therefore, the actual purchase of Chinese construction online funds may be more than 675 billion yuan. Freezing funds or up to 1.6 trillion how much would it be if institutional funds were to go online?　　Let us take a look at the amount of bargaining chips in the hands of institutional investors who are now publicly available. First look at the insurance funds. China Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "2009 1 ~ May insurance Business Data" shows that, as at the end of May, the bank's deposit on the scale of 1,052,940,000,000 yuan.　　CIC Securities and insurance industry researcher Xu Shoude told the Daily economic news, this part of the bank deposits have fixed deposits and demand deposits, of which fixed deposit or about 70%, then the remaining flexible use of insurance funds only 315.882 billion yuan. Next is the public offering fund.　　Wind statistics show that, as of the first quarter of this year, public offering funds hold cash 232.744 billion yuan, plus the two-quarter set up 31 new funds about 100 billion yuan of capital scale, public offering funds can be used for 332.744 billion yuan. At the same time, in recent years, enterprise annuity also as a new financial force to participate in the market, the Ministry of Social Security released the 2008 national Social Security situation, as of the end of last year, China's Enterprise annuity fund accumulated balance of 191.1 billion yuan, but according to the relevant provisions, only 20% of the enterprise annuity can be　　So this part of the money is 38.22 billion yuan. Finally look at the brokerage. "Securities companies to participate in the new own capital elasticity is too large, high yield can reach hundreds of billions, when the low may only be billions of yuan."　　"Citic Investment finance researcher said that the current market on the initial estimate of securities companies can participate in the new capital of the size of 150 billion yuan. By the above rough statistics, institutions currently available liquidity scale of about 836.846 billion yuan, if the participation of 4.8 billion shares under the net purchase, to 4 yuan/share of the price calculation, the proportion of its net placement of about 2.29%, much lower than the online check rate, so this part of the funds or will have 20% into the online,　　About 167.369 billion yuan. In addition, whenever the market has a large stock issue, inter-bank repo rate will fluctuate upward, such as China's oil (601857, close to 14.59 yuan) issued, the interbank 7th-weighted average interest rate rose to the highest point since the beginning of 2007.　　Recently, the Sichuan Chengdu-Chongqing, China's construction of the issue has also attracted this fluctuation, this week after the distribution of three or four Sichuan-Chongqing, Thursday, Friday, interbank repurchase rates have been rising continuously, this part of the funds or will participate in the Chinese construction online purchase.　　Therefore, the comprehensive view of Chinese construction online purchase funds or will be up to 900 billion yuan, the net of about 700 billion, the total frozen capital of 1.6 trillion yuan. Take the history as a mirror next week to "shock" if the above analysisTo be true, China's construction of up to 900 billion of the online frozen funds, no doubt will be on the level two market funds caused diversion.　　Next week the market trend is quite scary.　　Recalling a-share history, and China's construction financing scale close to three large stocks: Construction Bank (601939, closing price of 6.1 yuan), China Shenhua (601088, close 34.33 yuan) and PetroChina, its release time in September 2007 to October, it is the market is the craziest time. September 17, 2007, raised funds over 50 billion of the construction Bank online distribution. The previous 3 trading days the market continued to rise, the 3 Yang line. September 17 The same day, the market rose 2.06%.　　However, after the release, the market appeared two trading days of the volatile trend. September 25, 2007, raised more than 60 billion yuan in China Shenhua online distribution, the day the market fell 1.08%. The stock market trend before and after the main shock, September 26 more shrinking.　　However, the purchase of funds to thaw the previous day, the market launched the last round of the bull market, followed by a number of consecutive jumps higher, directly to the 6124.04 point of the history of the highest. The October 26, 2007 issue of China's oil fundraising is also as high as more than 60 billion yuan. Before the online purchase, the market plunged 4.8%, and the day the volume was enlarged, the two-level market funds evacuated significantly.　　But after the release of China's oil, the market also appeared for four consecutive trading days rose, which received three Yang line.　　Synthesis of these 3 large-cap stocks before and after the market trend, the general characteristics of the super large stocks before and after the release of short-term shocks. Datong Securities Strategy Researchers believe that this commonality is partly because of the impact of huge financing on investor psychology, on the other hand, the diversion of market funds also bring volatility.　　But the current market environment and 2007 9, October is not the same, at that time the market has reached the top of the history of the region, the regulatory layer of continuous distribution of super large stocks, cooling means strong. "Now the market environment is, after a round of rally, the market confidence has recovered, the capital is abundant, the most different place is the IPO just opened the gate, if the Chinese construction distribution changed the market trend, is the regulators and investors are unwilling to see."　　The researchers said. In this regard, analysts believe that China's construction in Wednesday before and after the release of the two-tier market funds will certainly have diversion, the market will be shaken;