China-US stock market relevance 60% view of a-share transfer from a global perspective

Investors reported that this year, the Dow Jones index has been down all the way, but has surged 30% since the bottom of March 9, a trend that is rare in the Dow's history. At the same time, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen 40% per cent this year, but in March and April it lagged far behind the overall international market for a shares and overseas markets.　　May 11, BTV financial channel "Finance 5 Bursts" host Li Nan invited the fifth largest mutual fund company of the United States Oppenheimer Fund company managing director Li Shanquan, Murong investment founding partner Zhao Zhong, bosera Fund retail Business Department managing director Beijingers and "investor newspaper" the executive editor-in-chief He Gang, from the global view to judge a a-share. China-US stock market correlation 60% Zhao People think a-share market and peripheral market relationship can be divided into two stages: before February 27, 2007, basically no contact.　　February 27, 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index and the deep card indexes all fell, due to jet lag, that night, from Hong Kong to Europe and the United States, the stock index all plummeted, the same day the Dow fell 500多 points, and set a last minute drop of 200 points in the historical record. Then they have a relationship. In the United States as a representative, one of the equivalent of handsome, one of the equivalent of beauty, they are in a circle of brothers or a small sister circle inside, live their lives. But one day I hit a ray, everyone found their house collapsed, this time the two sides have a thrives, so from this time, China's investment and American investors start to see each other's city often if the image is that they love, think who are inseparable from each other. In terms of quantity, the correlation is basically 60%. As a result, the relationship between China and the United States Index is growing.　　In the midst of the economic crisis, with the strength of China's economy, the power to influence U.S. stocks has grown. He Gang said that since 2007, the relationship between China and the United States has increased, the 2008 "investor newspaper" has a special report called the U.S. stock speculation. From the second half of last year, especially after September, there has been a decline in U.S. stocks, a shares certainly fell; U.S. stocks do not fall, A shares also continue to fall, because at that time we are in the acceleration of the bottom stage. A A-share than the U.S. stock, the last November has been out of the 1664-point bottom, so from then to the current 2,600 points, the rebound is larger than the U.S. stock, longer time. Stocks accelerated their fall earlier this year, with worse expected cash, and then a quick rebound.　　A sharp rise in a short period of time, due to the early irrational fall after the formation of normal rebound, 7,000 points should be a more balanced position.　　The attractiveness of foreign investment has increased recently, while QFII (qualified foreign investors) has risen by only 3.38% in market capitalisation compared to the four quarter last year, while the enthusiasm for qdii (qualified domestic investors) has soared and market capitalisation has grown rapidly. When the financial crisis arrives, countries around the world are looking for stimulus packages that will inevitably change the entire international goldThe supply and demand of the market, the withdrawal of foreign funds from the country leading to the outflow of foreign capital, will inevitably affect the revitalization of their economies.　　The first quarter of a year of qdii swept the haze, indicating the attractiveness of foreign investment has begun to increase.　　Zhaozhong that when the overall macroeconomic situation is good, the fundamentals of the stock market are not necessarily good, but the fundamentals of the stock market must be bad when the overall macroeconomic situation is bad.　　Li Shanquan said that active fiscal policy led to a global flow of capital, while the only market for investment in equities and commodity markets was lower prices for stocks and commodities, and good returns when the subsequent economy turned better. He Gang that, from the recent figures, a-share of the QFII should be shunting, rather than lighten.　　Last year 1700 to 1800 point is the QFII to add a very strong time, and at that time they added basically some of the more violent varieties, such as non-ferrous Metals, new energy and so on, recently on these varieties have been reduced. The QFII has recently been on the move to a unit of delivery equipment, similar to China's southern car and other obvious benefits from policy-driven varieties.　　The goal of the QFII is to select good companies for a shares, such as transportation, mining, petrochemical and financial stocks, especially banking stocks, whose valuations are more advantageous and are the focus of the QFII's next consideration. Beijingers that in the way of investment, both QFII and qdii are choosing cheap things, whether it be value investment or growth investment, which ultimately aims to create good performance. In this goal driven, they certainly hope to find the right assets in advance, and so its value fully reflected and then slowly adjust, now may be in the process of adjustment, so the recent a-share daily closing point of fluctuation between the fluctuations are not too large, to maintain the oscillation adjustment.　　In fact, the current rebound in the global stock market, but the "dead cat Jump", there may be a larger rebound, but it is only a bear market rebound.　　Look at the United States to see more China He Gang that both the U.S. stock market and the Chinese stock market have entered the stage of recovery, this trend is irreversible. For short-term investors, the concern is trading risk, such as one months up nearly 30% of the U.S. stock market will certainly have a downward risk, this time to do more than the possibility of error, but for long-term investors, if not to the positions, the allocation of high-quality varieties, that is not right.　　So from the operational strategy, they are now in conflict, someone to short, some people continue to configure high-quality varieties. With active fiscal policy and loose monetary policy, both the United States and China, capital promotion has become a very important force in the stock market rally. The money is the stock market supply and demand relations determinants, the money is many, everybody confidence is stronger when certainly will rise.　　If the whole market does not rise, due to excessive liquidity, the second half of the year will be likely to appear hyperinflation. Beijingers that the Chinese economy will certainly recover in 3-5 years, but that there will be a short-term shock and that the structural adjustment in the US is not easy to complete. Zhaozhong saidIn recent years, the overall strategy has been to see more China, the United States. In Beijingers's view, a-shares rose 40% from the beginning of the year, is there a possibility of a fall, the two mentality of investors, one is the previous owners have bought shares, they will consider whether the current should be appropriate to lighten, but also worried about instead Ta Kong; and some investors have been in the early stage, hoping to buy at the bottom of the low, But this opportunity is not visible in the short term.