China's consumer confidence declines as inflation fears fall

In the morning of November 17, the Chinese consumer confidence survey by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's economic boom Monitoring Center, and Nielsen, showed that China's consumer confidence index was 104 in the three quarter of 2010, down 5 points from the second quarter, and for the first time after a five-quarter consecutive increase.　　The reason for the fall is inflation concerns. The first drop in consumer confidence since the 5-quarter survey showed that the fall in the Chinese consumer confidence index was mainly due to a decline in consumer sentiment.　　However, the overall level of confidence is still in the optimistic range, most consumers are satisfied with the state of the national economy, optimistic about the future trend. From the regional distribution, consumer confidence in the central region leapt to the top (108), and the continued optimism of the employment situation was the main reason for the confidence of consumers in the central region. The second is the Eastern Region (104) and the Northeast (103). Pan Jiancheng, deputy director of China Economic Prosperity Monitoring Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said: "The eastern region of the manufacturing industry to the central region of the rapid transfer speed, to promote the central region of industrialization, urbanization accelerated development, the increase of local employment and income increase, the local consumer confidence has a significant impact." "The Chinese Consumer Confidence Index report reveals that consumer confidence in urban areas is stable."　　Among them, the first-tier city and two quarter flat, are 101, two or three line city rose slightly, respectively, than the second quarter 4 points and 3 points, reached 101 and 104; The four-line city fell slightly, to 102, down 1 points from the second quarter. After the level of confidence continued to rise for five consecutive quarters, the rural consumer confidence index fell for the first time and fell to 106. Ma Yi Mitch Barns, president of Nielsen's Greater China, said: "It is understandable that rural consumer confidence has fluctuated after several consecutive quarters of upbeat gains." Consumer confidence cannot grow indefinitely. The frequent occurrence of natural disasters and rising consumer prices are the main reasons for the decline of rural consumer confidence. "According to income level, the higher the income level of consumers, their confidence index is also higher." In the third quarter, only high-income households had a rise in consumer confidence, reaching 110, up 1 points from the second quarter, and median and lower-income consumer confidence fell 5 and 8 points, respectively, by 109 and 96 in the second quarter.　　Rising prices, especially food prices, and rising inflation expectations have led to a marked slide in consumer confidence in low-income groups. Consumer expectations of rising prices have risen markedly compared with the results of the previous quarter, and the concerns of Chinese consumers remain unchanged. Income security is always the focus of consumers, with "personal health" and "Children's life/education" in the top three respectively. Consumer concerns about "rising food prices" have been further strengthened, ranked fourth in the consumer's top priority, and the second in the quarter.　　In addition, "personal health", "job stability" and "personal work/career development" has also attracted much attention from consumers. According to the report, consumers for the next 1The trend of the overall price level in 2 months has increased significantly, which is closely related to the rise in food prices.　　76% of consumers said they would "rise", a notable increase of 6% in the second quarter, 19% said "Stay the same", and only 5% said prices would "fall". Among them, the rural area and the first-tier city consumers are most worried about the rising prices. 89% of consumers in rural areas think the overall price level will "rise" in the next 12 months, a sharp increase of 11% from the second quarter.　　In all the line cities, the first-tier city consumers believe prices will "rise" by as much as 88%, a slight 2% from the second quarter, and that the two-line, three-and four-tier cities believe prices will "rise" by more than 60% consumers. For the price movements of different commodities, nearly 80% consumers believe food prices will "rise" (78%) over the next 12 months, up 10% from the second quarter.　　Among them, first-tier city consumers believe that food prices will increase the proportion of the highest (89%), rural areas followed by consumers (88%), compared with the second and three or four-tier urban consumers, the rise in food prices is the strongest concern. 62% of consumers expect real estate prices to "rise" in the next 12 months, up 8% from the second quarter, and say the "drop" in consumers fell to 15%, down 8% from the second quarter. In urban and rural areas, rural consumer housing prices are expected to rise stronger than urban areas. In the third quarter, the proportion of rural consumers expected to "rise" in housing prices reached 76%, a 5% increase from the second quarter. In the city, the proportion of consumers in the urban areas is expected to rise significantly. Among them, the three or four-line city is expected to "rise" the proportion of consumers relatively high, reached 54% and 50% respectively, the first and second tier cities have 49% and 47% of consumers expect prices to "rise".　　This also shows that this year's first round of real estate regulation, although to curb the price of a front-line city has a certain positive effect, but did not affect the three or four-tier cities. Consumer expectations of rising prices have curbed consumers ' willingness to consume.　　Only 41% of consumers think it is a good time to buy what they need, a significant 11% drop from the second quarter. Consumers are optimistic about the outlook for 2011, although most consumers are on the sidelines about spending on commodities, but it does not affect their optimism about the upcoming 2011 years. Nearly 70% Chinese consumers (68%) think the job market will be "good" or "very good" over the next year, a 16% higher than the current job situation. Among them, consumers in the central region were most optimistic about employment prospects (79%), followed by the Western (65%), Eastern (63%) and northeast (56%) regions.　　Both urban and rural, employment expectations are basically stable, rural employment is still significantly better than the city, the proportion of optimism reached 78%. More than 60% (64%) Chinese consumers expect to spend the next 12 months, personal income will be in a "good" or "very good" state, down 3% from the second quarter. Income expectations fall mainly from the east, industrial transfer affects employment in the east, but also to a certain extent affect income. Rising prices, especially food prices, have had the greatest impact on income for rural and four-line urban consumers, with a positive share of 62% and 61%, respectively, down 9 points and 6 points in the second quarter. The first, second and third-tier cities expect bullish consumers to be 67%, 69% and 67%, respectively. (Huayan from Beijing)