China's CPI rises or exceeds 3% this year

China News agency, Beijing, June 8 (Xinhua) The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (Yu Ying) said in its 2010 financial Blue Book today that China's CPI growth rate may exceed 3% per cent this year, but this is not inflation and cannot be prevented and dispelled by tighter monetary policy.　　It also predicts that after the second quarter, China will enter a sensitive period of policy adjustment. The Blue Book believes that China will continue to adjust the price of the resource products which are too low for a long time, which will promote the CPI growth. At the same time, agricultural prices are also an important factor driving the CPI higher.　　Official data show that April, China's CPI rose 2.8%, agricultural and sideline products prices are the main factor. But the authors of the Blue Book stressed that China's current CPI uplink is only the result of the price adjustment of agricultural products and resources, not inflation, and cannot simply adopt tight monetary policy.　　The tightening of monetary policy can not solve the rising CPI problem, but will incur a series of negative effects. According to the Blue Book, the Practice effect since 2004, improve the deposit and loan interest rate not only did not change the pattern of negative deposit interest rate, but to the industrial and commercial enterprises increased the cost of capital, to the producers of agricultural products increased the cost of capital, the result further promote the price of resources and agricultural products.　　It advises policymakers not to rashly change monetary policy to avoid a negative orientation to economic operations and financial activities. The Blue Book predicts that before the middle of this year, China's existing macroeconomic policy framework is unlikely to change significantly, and a more sensitive policy adjustment period will emerge in the two quarter, "the situation may be similar to the second half of 2007."　　But in order to avoid a hard landing, policymakers may take relatively modest regulatory measures. These options include increasing the number of central votes, increasing the frequency of issuance, appropriately raising the reserve requirement ratio and the benchmark interest rate of deposit and lending, strengthening the window Guide of credit delivery, strengthening the investigation and treatment of illegal lending, using credit, standardizing local government financing and guarantee behavior.