China's economy is adjusting toward policy expectations

China economic boom monitoring and warning report April 2010-National Development Bank Research Institute National Information Center Forecast Department Shanghai Securities newspaper Overall planning Guo Yan National Development Bank Research Institute executive Vice President Fan jianping National Information Center Forecast Department director Cheng Shanghai Securities newspaper deputy editor-in-chief of the project leader Hong Zhenghua National development Wangyuan, deputy dean of the Banking Research Institute, director of the Song Shanghai Securities Newspaper chief editor of the Liu Wentao Du Yu ' Mr. Wu Li Joe Xu Ping health Liu Yuhong, Ji Xiao Hui April, a comprehensive reflection of macroeconomic performance of the consistent synthesis index and describing the future economic trend of the first synthetic index appeared to fall back, when The monthly comprehensive police sentiment index was 93, the same as the March index, running in the red light area for 5 consecutive months.　　Of the 10 indicators that constitute the comprehensive police Intelligence index, the cumulative growth rate of fixed assets investment, the real growth rate of total retail sales of social goods, the M1 growth rate, the growth rate of various loans and the growth rate of power generation, etc., CPI, revenue, industrial value added, total import and export, industrial enterprise sales With the adjustment of macro-control policies, fixed asset investment growth rate, monetary and credit growth to maintain a high level of correction, continue to adjust to the direction of policy expectations; Exports, consumption continue to maintain a high growth, between internal and external demand, investment and consumption between the serious imbalance continues to be eased;　　Supply indicators such as industrial added value also have a pullback or slowdown, however, the rapid growth of investment and product output in some high-energy-consuming industries has exacerbated the contradictions between structural adjustment and energy-saving and emission reduction; CPI and PPI have rebounded rapidly, and some urban real estate prices have fallen back in late April by the state's policy of curbing excessive price inflation. First, April economic boom came down 1, consistent and leading index fell back. In April, a consistent composite index reflecting macroeconomic performance fell back, with a April consistent composite index of 120.8, down 0.2% from March.　　Among the 5 indicators that constitute a consistent composite index, the growth rate of industrial growth and fiscal revenue continued to rise in March, but the growth rate slowed; The total retail sales of consumer goods and fixed asset investment continued to decline after the growth of the seasonal adjustment trend, the growth rate of electricity production from slow to small decline. In the April, the first synthetic index, which describes the future economic trends, also fell, with the April synthesis index at 110.2, down 0.7% from March. From the 5 components of the first synthetic index, it is that after the seasonally adjusted production of finished goods capital occupancy (reversal), crude steel growth and M1 growth rate continued to maintain downward trend in April; the growth rate of coastal port cargo throughput and New start area of commercial housing continued to keep growing in April,　　The new construction area of the commercial housing after the seasonally adjusted growth rate of April as high as 66.5%, the rapid increase in the index so that the Advance index drop period delay. 2, the comprehensive Police Intelligence index continues to operate in the red light district. April, the comprehensive alarm index was 93, the same as the March index, running in the red light area for 5 consecutive months.　　Of the 10 indicators that comprise the integrated Police Intelligence index in April, the cumulative growth of fixed assets investment, total retail sales of social consumer goods real growth rate, M1 growth rate, each loan growth rate and power generation growth rate of 5 indicators decline, CPI, revenue, industrial value added, import and export, industrial enterprises selling income and other 5 indicators continue to rise. April, 10 police sentiment indicators, only a consumer price index in the normal Lengian, fixed assets investment completed the cumulative growth rate continued to slow down in Huangguo, revenue, RMB loans, electricity generation, industrial value added, import and export total,　　Industrial enterprises sales revenue and other eight indicators are in the hot red light district. From the previous analysis can be seen in April 2010, the first, consistent index came down, the police sentiment index continues to run in the "Red light district". From the trend of the indicators, we can see that with the adjustment of macro-control policies, fixed asset investment growth rate, monetary and credit growth to maintain a high level of correction, continue to move towards the direction of policy expectations; Exports, consumption continue to maintain a high growth, and between internal and external demand, investment and consumption between the　　, power generation, industrial added value and other supply-type indicators also have a correction or slowdown in growth, however, the rapid growth of investment and product output in some high-energy-consuming industries has exacerbated the contradictions between structural adjustment and energy-saving and emission reduction; CPI and PPI have rebounded rapidly, and some urban real estate prices have fallen back in late April by the state's policy of curbing excessive price inflation. Looking from the direction of future economic boom change, influenced by the government's macro-control policies since the beginning of this year and the high post-low base last year, after April, the real estate regulation, energy saving and emission reduction and cleaning up the local government investment and financing platform will continue to reduce the growth rate, and the adjustment of domestic property and automobile market will make the real growth The deterioration of the European sovereign debt crisis will cause a certain drop in China's exports, the main economic indicators and economic sentiment index is likely to continue to maintain a high level of decline in the situation. As the European sovereign debt crisis has not yet been resolved, the coordination of macroeconomic policies of various countries is difficult, the uncertainty and complexity of the process of international economic recovery may be more than expected, the domestic economic growth rate correction, energy-saving emission reduction and rising price pressure will make macroeconomic policy to achieve steady growth,　　The trade-off between pushing structural adjustment and maintaining a moderate rebound in prices is harder. Second, the main indicators of the trend and analysis 1, the increase in industrial value growth continued to fall. Industrial production growth has fallen slightly. April, the value of the above-scale industry increased by 17.8% year-on-year, the growth rate was slightly lower than March 0.3%.　　After the adjustment of the season, the industrial growth rate in the red light district high continued to rise slightly. The activity of industrial production has declined. Taking into account the April 2009 increase in industrial value year-on-year growth of 7.3%, lower than the March 1%, 2009, April 2010 Industrial increase in the average year-on-year growth rate of 12.55%, below the two-year average growth rate of 0.65% in March, indicating that in April China's industrial production activity declined. The rapid decline in heavy industry growth is a key reason for the small slowdown in industrial production. The slowdown in heavy industry was largely due to a fall in some of the higher-energy-carrying sectors, such as the April growth in transport equipment manufacturing, which was 23.2% per cent, down 6.9% from the previous month. At the same time, the heavy industry in the six high load energy industry growth rate of 17.9%, which will enhance the growth of energy consumption in China, and make our energy-saving emission reduction faced with grim situation.　　and the raw material industry growth was basically flat last month, equipment manufacturing production also fell. In April, industrial growth in the eastern, central and western regions increased by 16.8%, 21.7% and 17.1% respectively, down 0.1, 0.5 and 0.2% respectively last month, and sustained relatively rapid growth in the central region.　　In addition, industrial exports continued to rebound in April, with exports of manufactured goods rising 27.5% per cent year-on-year, up 1.7% from last month. 2. Urban fixed investment growth continued to fall. 1-April, urban fixed assets investment of 4.6743 trillion yuan, an increase of 26.1%, compared with a year earlier fell 4.4%, down 0.3% than the first quarter.　　After the seasonal adjustment, the urban fixed assets investment accumulated year-on-year growth rate continued to decline, has been downward close to the hot Huangguo down the edge. Sub-industry, 1-April, primary investment increased by 16.5%, compared to 6.8% in the first quarter, secondary investment grew 21.7%, fell 0.7% from the first quarter, and third industry investment grew 29.7%, down 0.3% from the first quarter.　　This shows that the second industry investment growth fell faster.　　In addition, the fixed assets investment also has the following characteristics: First, the local project investment growth drop is bigger; secondly, the policy effect of the new project of fixed assets investment is more remarkable; Real estate development investment continued to accelerate, April real estate development investment 993.2 billion yuan, growth 36.2%, than the first quarter expanded 1.1%. 3, the total retail sales of consumer goods continue to grow steadily and rapidly. April, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 1.151 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.5% year-on-year, faster than the same month last year 3.7%, faster than March 0.5%. After discounting the price factor, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 15.3% in real year, basically flat with March.　　After the adjustment of the season, the total retail sales of consumer goods in real time year-on-year growth continued small downward, but still operating in the red light district. In terms of products, by the early stage of real estate market sales and home appliances to the countryside and other policies, home appliances and audio equipment, furniture, building decoration materials, such as the strong consumption, auto sales year-on-year growth rate is still significantly higher than the total retail consumption of consumer goods growth.　　Consumer hot spots continue to be maintained, consumer upgrades continued, and retail sales growth in the urban-rural gap has narrowed. 4, exports continue to maintain a recovery situation. Higher export growth, the trade surplus is small. April, China's import and export value of 238.16 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 39.4%. Among them, exports of 119.92 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 30.5%, faster than last month 6.3%; imports 118.24 billion U.S. dollars, growth of 49.7%. The current month's trade surplus of 1.68 billion U.S. dollars, down 87%.　　After the seasonal adjustment, the total import and export volume continued to increase in the red light District high. The level of export recovery has declined.　　April, although China's exports rose 30.5% year-on-year, the growth rate was 6.3% faster than last month, but given the low base effect of a large expansion of exports in the same period in 2009, the current level of China's export recovery has actually weakened. Low-end labor-intensive products are the main factors driving the expansion of export growth. From the product structure of the chain, April textile, furniture and other low-end labor-intensive products, accounting for most of the chain increase in exports.　　From the product structure of the year, the April low-end exports year-on-year growth rate of more than 17%, on the contrary, mechanical and electrical products exports in April year-on-year growth and the last month basically flat, and High-tech products exports year-on-year growth is lower than last month. At present, China's overall export growth is Europe and the United States and Japan stability, emerging markets are still the strong impetus for export growth.　　In April, China's exports to Brazil, ASEAN and Russia surged by 114%, 63% and 43% respectively, while the growth rate of exports to the United States, Japan and the European Union was 19%, 25% and 28% respectively.　　In addition, imports of major commodities have risen and decreased, such as April imports of iron ore fell 2.9% per cent year-on-year, import crude oil growth of 30.9%, import soybean year-on-year growth of 13.2%. 5, the credit regulation effect is further apparent, the loan structure has improved. The renminbi loan balance of financial institutions increased slightly year-on-year. At the end of April, the renminbi loan balance of financial institutions was 43.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.96% per cent, up 0.15% from last month, and 7.76% lower than a year earlier.　　After the adjustment of the season, the financial institutions renminbi loans at the end of the year continued to decline year-on-year growth, has been close to the red light district along. The effect of credit regulation is further revealed. April, RMB loans increased by 774 billion yuan, year-on-year increase of 182.2 billion yuan, more than last month increased by 263.3 billion yuan. The new loan is mainly due to the large increase of residents ' medium and long term loans, which fully illustrates the effect of credit regulation.　　In addition, short-term loans increased in April, demand for long-term loans weakened and loan structures improved. 6, consumer prices rose to a new year high. Consumer prices rose by a year high, slightly exceeding expectations. Consumer prices rose 2.8% per cent year-on-year in April, up 0.4% from last month, to a record high in the year.　　After the seasonal adjustment, consumer prices continued to rise year-on-year, to reach the middle of Lengian. Rising food and housing prices are the main drivers of CPI year-on-year gains. April, food prices rose 5.9%, driving CPI rose 1.9percentage points; residential growth rose by 1.2% to 4.5% per cent last month, boosting CPI by 0.7%; The two combined to pull 2.6%, accounting for 2.8% year-on-year gains.　　The fall in the price chain of food prices is too small and the price of service items increased significantly, together leading to consumer prices rose in the chain, inflationary pressure initially appeared. 7, M1 month-end balance year-on-year growth rebound. At the end of April, the narrow currency grew 31.25% per cent year-on-year, up 1.31 and 13.77% from the end of last month and the same period last year, and rebounded after a sharp fall in the M1 month balance for two consecutive months. In the case of M1 absolute quantity has not increased, the main factor that M1 the month-end balance year-on-year growth is lower than the same period last year. After the seasonal adjustment, the M1 month-end balance year-on-year growth continued to decline, but still in the red light district high level operation. The broad currency grew 21.48% per cent year-on-year, down 1.01 and 4.47% from the end of last month and the same period last year, while the balance of currency (M0) in circulation was 3.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.76% year-on-year.　　Month net put cash 57.7 billion yuan, more than 6.6 billion yuan. 8. Revenue continues to grow rapidly. April, the national revenue of 792.566 billion yuan, increased by 202.851 billion yuan in the same month last year, an increase of 34.4%. Among them, the central level income of 417.93 billion yuan, an increase of 42.1% per cent, local income of 374.636 billion yuan, an increase of 26.7%. Seasonal adjustment, revenue year-on-year growth in the red light district continued a large upward.　　January-April Cumulative, the national revenue of 2,755,273,000,000 yuan, compared with the same period last year, increased 701.353 billion yuan, an increase of 34.1%. 9, the power generation continued to increase significantly. April, industrial enterprises above the scale of 331.64 billion kwh of electricity generation, up to 21.4% year-on-year.　　After the adjustment of the season, the growth rate of electricity in the red light district small downward. Gao Cai Industrial production accelerated, April growth of 17.9%, faster than the 0.9% last month, is the main reason for the increase in power generation growth than last month.　　In addition, the power generation structure, hydropower growth in March for the decline of 1.46%, April year-on-year decline of 1.1%, the decline has slowed; thermal power generation growth from March 19.7% rapid jump to April 25.6%, fossil-fired power growth rate increased by a large margin. Financial markets and securities market operation one, currency and bond market 1, open market operation continue large-scale net withdrawal of funds.　　April, the central bank open market operation presented a large-scale currency withdrawal, a total of net withdrawal of funds 420.979 billion yuan. 2. The bond issue is more balanced.　　In April, the interbank bond market issued 395.885 billion yuan, an increase of 4.47% from last month. 3. Market transactions are more active. April Interbank lending accumulated a total of 2.2 trillion yuan, 12.2% more than March;Accounted for 91.41% of the total lending volume this month. In April, the bond-backed repo traded 6.41 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.4% from March. Trading variety of 1 days mainly, 1-day variety turnover accounted for all the pledged this month repurchase turnover of 86%. In April, the interbank bond market coupon trading accumulated 4.7 trillion yuan, down 2% from March.　　In April, the exchange bond trading accumulated 14.614 billion yuan, 34.5% less than March. 4, the market yield stability in the fall. In April, interbank lending rates declined compared with March, with a weighted average interest rate of 1.34% per cent for interbank lending. In April, the inter-bank bond market repurchase weighted average interest rate was lower than March, the bond mortgage repurchase weighted average interest rate was 1.36%, compared with March 4 basis points, the Bond pledge type repurchase 1 days variety weighted average interest rate is 1.31%, compared with March 4 basis point. In April, the interbank bond Index and the exchange-rate index were slightly upward. Among them, the inter-bank bond index rose 0.72%, and the Exchange-Bond index rose 0.28%.　　In the April, the bond yield curve of inter-bank market showed a flattening trend, the short end was slightly upward, while the middle-length stability was slightly downward. Second, the stock market 1, the initial total financing of new shares rebounded, the total amount of market financing fell more. Total IPO financing appears to have rebounded.　　April, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market IPO continued high frequency, the month a total of 28 companies in a-share market for the first issue of new shares, the initial fund-raising total of 33.524 billion yuan, compared with the March IPO financing total has rebounded. Total refinancing has shrunk sharply. April, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market listed companies refinancing only in the issuance of shares, allotment and warrants are in a state of stagnation. Additional financing, public additional financing 2.208 billion yuan, directional additional cash financing 7.439 billion yuan.　　The total refinancing was only 9.647 billion yuan, which shrank significantly from the total refinancing of 29.031 billion yuan in March. Total market financing declined more.　　April, although the total IPO financing in the initial period of increase compared to March, but because of the greater contraction, the Shanghai-Shenzhen stock market in April Total monthly financing of 43.181 billion yuan, compared to March 61.933 billion yuan total financing of the larger contraction. 2, a-share market index has fallen significantly, turnover increased more. The A-share market index fell significantly. April, a-share market index overall showed a sharp downward trend.　　The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3111.93 points earlier this month, closing at 2870.61 at the end of the month, down 238.49 points and a monthly decline of 7.67%. Increased market volume.　　In April, the average daily transaction amount of the Shanghai and Shenzhen cities was $247.283 billion, which increased by 55.479 billion yuan from the average daily turnover of 191.804 billion yuan last month. 3, the reduction of the non-tradable is still relatively depressed. April, as a share market appeared more substantial decline, the lifting of the ban on the reduction of the willingness to reduce the desire to continue to slump in the two-tier cityThe actual reduction scale of the field has been improved less. The month, the Shanghai and Shenzhen cities to reduce the size of the total amount of 607 million shares, compared to March 577 million shares of the reduction scale appeared a small rebound.　　Among them, the larger than the month to reduce the number of 343 million shares, less than 7 million shares last month, small non-reduction of 264 million shares, increased by 36 million shares last As of the end of April 2010, a-share market share reform formed a total of 479.233 billion shares. Among them, has been lifted the size of 336.753 billion shares, accounting for the proportion of the total size of 70.27%, large and small non-lifting of the proportion of 68.05% and 81.54% respectively, the cumulative reduction of 43.436 billion shares, reduce the number of shares have been lifted the number of stocks of 12.9%, large and non,　　The proportion of small and non cumulative shares in the total number of the respective lifting amount is 6.2% and 41.32% respectively. 4, the stock index futures officially. April 16, the first batch of four Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures contracts began trading in CICC, the first listed contracts for the May 2010, June, September and December contracts, the pegged benchmark price is 3,399 points.　　Overall, as China's stock index futures are still relatively narrow, securities companies, funds, endowment insurance funds and other institutional investors have not been involved, and the market mechanism is still a certain defect, the function of stock index futures will still take some time. Countermeasures and suggestions facing the complex and changeable environment at home and abroad, we should maintain the basic orientation of macroeconomic policy, further refine and implement a series of macro-control policies, strengthen the pertinence and flexibility of policy, and grasp the key, intensity and rhythm of policy implementation.　　Focus on the long-term, cultivate independent growth capacity, improve the quality of economic growth, and strive to achieve sustained and stable growth. 1, "controlled and guaranteed" to maintain a reasonable investment scale one is that all levels of government to continue to control infrastructure investment, focus on the completion of projects under construction, strict controls on new projects. The second is to strictly control the high energy consumption, high emission industry and overcapacity industry new project investment and loans, and further increase the backward capacity of the elimination of strength, to promote the steel, cement and other industries mergers and acquisitions pace. Third, the real implementation of affordable housing investment plan, on the one hand to increase the effective supply of housing, on the other hand, "hedge" housing investment growth decline in the growth of investment in the drop. Four is to continue to promote the traditional industrial transformation, upgrade the level of equipment manufacturing industry, promote the application of modern information technology in the manufacturing industry. Five is to speed up the formulation of strategic emerging industry development planning, the launch of a group of research and Development, industrialization and marketing of major special projects, in taxation, credit and other areas to increase the support of strategic emerging industries.　　Six is to further refine the implementation of policies and measures to promote the healthy development of private investment, to eliminate unreasonable barriers to the entry of private investment and to support private investment in the industries and areas encouraged by the policy. 2, efforts to maintain a steady and rapid consumption growth one is to actively promote the reform of the income distribution system, and continue to enhance the residents, especially the lower and middle income groups consumption capacity. The emphasis is on implementing the policies of supporting agriculture and benefiting farmers, promoting the increase of peasants ' income;The policies of enterprise retirees ' pension, special care placement's treatment and so on, improve the minimum wage standard and the minimum living security level of the urban and rural residents, implement the policy of performance pay in compulsory schools, public health and primary medical units, and raise the income level of the personnel concerned. The second is to continue to improve and implement the promotion of household appliances, automobiles, energy-saving products and other consumer policy measures. Third, actively promote the culture, tourism, physical fitness, education and training, elderly care and other service consumption, promote domestic, community, endowment and other living services development.　　Four is to strengthen the commercial circulation system and other infrastructure construction, promote the "Thousand Villages" and "Double hundred" market engineering construction, rectify and standardize the market order, regulate market price level, and strive to create a convenient, safe, assured consumption environment. 3, reasonable guide market expectations one is to pay close attention to the development situation of European sovereign debt crisis, to study and formulate related response plans, to prevent the spread of European debt crisis on China's investor confidence, financial market and the real economy impact. Second, to strengthen the monitoring of food supply and demand situation and price operation, to do well in the production, distribution and distribution of important agricultural products and the adjustment of reserves, through timely use of the relevant national reserves to ensure market supply, to avoid some areas due to climate anomalies such as food, vegetables and other supply shortages and excessive fluctuations in prices, to ensure that market prices are basically stable, Stabilize expectations about commodity prices. The third is to grasp the opportunity and strength of reform, and steadily promote the reform of the price of resource products, and control its influence in a moderate range. Four is to further refine and improve the real estate market regulation and control measures, strengthen the economic operation and the interpretation of macroeconomic policies, reasonable guidance of market expectations, to prevent the real estate market and stock market irrational fluctuations. To strengthen the binding force and seriousness of macroeconomic policies, we should continue to strictly implement policies related to energy saving, emission reduction and structural adjustment in the period of high economic correction, especially to avoid relaxing requirements for short-term regulatory purposes.