China's economy is showing a clear rebound in two quarter or above 8%

"The trend of China's economic recovery is further clarified. After a 6.1% increase in the first quarter, the two-quarter growth should be 8% or even higher, so that the first half of the year's growth will be higher than 7%, so the Chinese economy is clearly showing signs of a rebound.　　"At the seminar of the national" excellent builders "organized by the central Front and the China Federation of Commerce, Yu Bin, Minister of Macroeconomic Research at the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out that although the above data are quite gratifying, the next step of our economy still faces many problems that cannot be neglected. First, asset prices have risen sharply. Although 1-May CPI and PPI fell 0.9% and 5.5%, and by the high base last year, overcapacity and other factors, the negative growth status is likely to continue to the end of the year.　　But with the domestic stock index rising continuously, some city real estate prices rebound on the basis of inadequate correction, etc., resulting in rising asset prices. Rising asset prices are bound to lead to a return of international capital to China. On the one hand, the rapid expansion of credit scale, on the other hand, excessive investment and overcapacity in the real economic field will inevitably result in a gradual weakening of investment.　　In this case, even if there is no direct inflow of credit, it will indirectly use social funds into the asset market, may lead to the Chinese asset prices bubble again. Second, inflation expectations have increased. The rising trend of food prices in the international market will play a role in promoting domestic food prices. Prices for primary commodities such as crude oil and iron ore are rising, and input-cost-boosting pressures are increasing. After the rebound of domestic economy, the turnover of goods accelerates and the speed of circulation increases. The price of live pigs and the sharp swings in production again will push up food prices.　　That would make it possible for China to get into a big price hike soon next year. Third, input-type cost pressure. China and other emerging countries have good economic development prospects, indicating a strong medium and long-term demand for primary products, the trend of rising prices is difficult to change. Emerging market countries, represented by China, have significantly increased demand for initial products, thus driving prices for primary commodities to rise sharply. International investment capital will also use demand growth and the depreciation of the dollar expectations, again hype commodity futures prices.　　In the short term, if this issue is not a concern, it may also be the next step in China's economic development of the grave hidden dangers. Yu Bin pointed out that in this context, China's future economic development will be three possible: the first, after the release of the policy effect, the market-driven private investment and residents consumption expansion slowed down, in the short term aggregate demand again contraction, economic growth appeared two times bottom. Second, the real estate, car market continued to rebound, driving investment, consumer demand reasonable release, overcapacity pressure gradually reduced, inflation and asset prices are effectively controlled, economic operation on a solid, healthy basis to enter the next round of expansion cycle.　　Third, due to the weak base of the rebound, economic growth hovering at a low level, asset prices too fast rise, inflation pressure is increasing, there are "low growth, high inflation" coexistence of Chinese-style "stagflation" situation. Of course, Yu Bin says, from economic developmentinternal and external conditions, the next step in the economic operation of the first prospect of the possibility has been very small, there is a second prospect of positive factors are accumulating, but the risk of a third scenario is gradually increasing.　　If the focus of the previous phase of macroeconomic policy was to prevent the first prospect, the next policy focus should be to prevent a third scenario. "The next stage of government will face a dilemma." On the one hand, the foundation of the economic recovery is weak, the first half of the growth of more than 7%, from the 8% target gap is still very large, so the expectations of growth can not be changed. The next step is to keep the economy on a steady rebound, and to prevent inflation and asset price bubbles on the other hand.　　Nevertheless, Yu Bin still believes that we should be full of confidence, although faced with a lot of problems and contradictions in the short term, but in the long run, China's good economic development prospects are beyond doubt. Where does Yu Bin's confidence come from? According to his analysis, China in the next 10 years, 20, 30, 50, will be in the urban and rural structure of drastic changes in the process of urbanization, urbanization will always be the driving force of economic growth, which is China in the next 50 years can continue to maintain a high rate of growth reasons. "So, despite the impact of the international financial crisis on China, China's economy, after a short period of adjustment, is bound to embark on a track of sustained and rapid growth." "(14C1)