China's foreign trade appears to be a positive inflection point of the trend of short-term difficult to change

BEIJING, December 11 (Xinhua): China's foreign trade in the "positive" inflection point of the trend of the downturn in the short term difficult to change Xinhua news agency reporters Remin, Tetrarch, Feng China General Administration of customs 11th released data show that November the total value of imports and exports of the year, the first year-on-year positive growth of 9.8%.　　Analysts here predict that China's foreign trade will still slowly rebound in the future, but the global demand for the downturn in the short term difficult to change, China's foreign trade recovery is still full of thorns.　　According to customs statistics, China's foreign trade imports and exports increased by 9.8% in November, with exports falling 1.2% per cent year-on-year, and 2.6% per cent year-on-year.　　From the year to look, in addition to exports, China's import and export value and import values have turned to positive growth in November, from the chain view, November China's import and export value, the value of exports, import value also from negative.　　Research Fellow of the Ministry of Commerce of International trade and economic cooperation Li Jian believes that this is affected by the lower base of the same period last year, on the other hand, and the U.S. "The total value of imports and exports from negative to positive is expected, the root cause is the external needs of the improvement." And since last year, the country issued a series of stable external demand, promote export policy has also received good results.　　Zhang, director of the National Development and Reform Commission's Foreign Economic Institute. A series of recent data shows that the economies of developed and emerging economies are recovering.　　The U.S. economy reappeared in the third quarter of a "long-lost" growth and financial markets have weathered a severe crisis, while Japan and Europe have continued to improve, with some emerging economies in Asia and South America accelerating. The International Monetary Fund reported in early October that the U.S. economy is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2010, with the European economy bottoming out in 2009 and a modest recovery starting in 2010.　　The global economy will shrink by 1.1% in 2009 and 3.1% in 2010. There are indications that international market demand is stabilizing at a low level. This fall China Canton Fair orders Year-on-year growth also confirms the external demand for warmer trend.　　However, the industry is widely believed that, although the possibility of China's export of a single month to positive, but foreign trade may face a double-digit decline throughout the year.　　According to Zhang estimates, China's exports will fall by 15% to 17% in the year as a result of earlier declines, but the surplus will shrink by around 90 billion dollars.　　Li said that the current weak global recovery, high unemployment in the major economies, and weakening financial institutions ' ability to finance the real economy suggest that the crisis needs to be adjusted longer than before, and that the external demand for China's foreign trade is difficult to reverse in a short time. "Even more worrisome is the growing international trade protectionism in the context of the global economic downturn, and China has become the biggest victim," he said. "Zhang said," external demand will still be in 2 years or so time to fall into a slump, the competition for a large shrinking cake will be more intense. "ToAs of November 3, 19 countries (regions) have launched 101 Trade relief surveys on Chinese products, with a total of more than $11.68 billion trillion, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce. China has been the world's most anti-dumping investigation country for 15 consecutive years. Moreover, trade relief measures are becoming more diversified, and countervailing and "special insurance" are becoming the focus.　　In 2009 alone, the United States launched 10 "double counter" surveys of Chinese products. The recently concluded Central Economic Work Conference has been cautious about China's current external environment, the foundation of the World economic recovery is not stable, the impact of the international financial crisis still exists, and the pressure of global challenge has increased.　　The meeting suggested that next year China will work to promote a steady rebound in exports and accelerate the transformation of foreign trade development. Li Jian said that at this stage, China should maintain support for foreign trade development policy measures of continuity and stability. At the same time, China must change its past reliance on low-cost, quantitative expansion of development strategies, focus on the quality of development and efficiency.　　In the trade structure, in addition to exports of manufactured goods, efforts to expand trade in services. Instead of discussing whether to achieve full export tax rebates, Zhang that the focus should be on improving SME entrepreneurship and innovation policy environment. The establishment of SME credit system, guarantee system, trade financing system and credit system, accelerate the transformation and upgrade of foreign trade growth mode. At the same time to vigorously explore East Asia and other emerging markets.