China's high saving rate leads to the controversy over the Western countries ' responsibility of saving countries

Core tip: McKinsey said in its report that if emerging markets were more rapidly carrying out infrastructure and other investments than the US and the developed countries increased their overall savings, interest rates would rise further, thereby curbing global economic growth. "China's savings rate is bound to fall in a few years," Christopher Carroll, a professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University in the United States, said at the first International Conference on Economic Studies in Fudan University in China, "not by increasing domestic consumption and investment. is to passively decline through exchange rates and trade wars. "The theory of the state of savers" in the West argues that the root cause of the financial crisis is global economic imbalances, and an important manifestation of the imbalances is the excessive savings of Asian countries, especially China, and excessive consumption in the US and Europe.　　Last 10, China invested 1 trillion of billions of dollars into US Treasuries and institutional bonds, lowering interest rates and fueling a housing bubble in the US.　　Under the influence of these ideas, Christopher Carroll, the easing of monetary policy in the United States will further pressure China to boost domestic consumption and financial reform and reduce the savings rate as soon as possible.　　Professor Zhigang, dean of the School of Economics at Fudan University, told reporters that China is in fact the buyers and victims of global economic imbalances, and that addressing global economic imbalances requires the improvement of global governance structures, including reform of the international monetary system. Zhigang said: "Two of US quantitative easing has pushed up international commodity prices, causing a rapid rise in manufacturing costs in China, indirectly increasing inflationary pressure in China, which is also the victim." "In addition, Christopher Carroll believes that China's high savings rate is the main reason for the renminbi's exchange rate to remain relatively low." In the face of international exchange rate pressure, China should choose to reduce the saving rate through endogenous consumption and investment, avoid trade war, "I am cautious and optimistic."　　"He also believes that in the short term, China will increase domestic investment, stimulate private investment, provide a variety of preferential policies to encourage enterprises to build factories and investment in machinery and equipment, in the long run, improve the social security system and financial reform, which will lead to a few years savings rate decline."　　Zhigang that China's savings rate would not fall so fast, a process that would take about 10-20 years. "The reduction of China's future saving rate depends on the change of the domestic population structure and the improvement of the social security system." He said that the future spindle-shaped demographic structure in China would change and that the proportion of people with a high savings age would fall.　　At the same time, reforming China's income distribution pattern and perfecting China's social security system will require greater reform.　　While China's high savings rate has become a "target" for the current global economic imbalances, McKinsey's recent report suggests that the future decline in China's savings rate may yet be another "hat". The McKinsey Global Research Institute (McKinsey Globe Institute) issued last week"The low interest rate environment in developed countries will change over the next few years and the further decline in savings rates in developing countries, especially in China, will make global fixed asset investment expectations exceed the saving will and global savings will become scarce," said farewell to Cheap Capital, a research report.　　Cheap capital is no longer sufficient.　　McKinsey said in its report that developing countries had entered one of the most active construction peaks in history, and that interest rates would rise further if emerging markets were more rapidly carrying out infrastructure and other investments than the US, while the developed countries increased their overall savings, which would curb global economic growth. By 2030, according to McKinsey, the global savings rate would be reduced by 1.8% per cent if the government's domestic reforms reached a target.