China's trade surplus will gradually fall, analysts survey

"Financial network," reporter Bao October 29, reporters interviewed 8 of the macroeconomic analysts, analysts generally believe that in the current domestic and foreign environment, foreign trade enterprises export commodity price advantage gradually weakened, China's trade surplus will gradually shrink. Guotai, a macroeconomic analyst, said in an interview that China's trade surplus is decreasing year by year, according to the annual data.　　In terms of annual units, China's trade surplus has started to decline since 2008, and the trade surplus is expected to be between 150 billion and 160 billion dollars for the full year of 2011. Wang said that the domestic inflation and the renminbi appreciation of the dual impact of the future period of Chinese export commodity prices will move higher.　　In addition, China's current import demand is very large, so the trade surplus will gradually lower.　　Wei Fengchun, Chief macro analyst at Citic Investment Securities, also said China's trade surplus would shrink gradually, with a monthly trade surplus of between $15 billion and $18 billion in the fourth quarter of this year. Wei Fengchun explained that China's labor costs are rising and energy consumption costs are rising, so export commodity prices will continue to rise. This is also bound to lead to a weakening of the competitiveness of domestic export commodities.　　This is also evidenced by the slowdown in export growth in recent months. Xiang Finance Securities strategy researcher Wang Tan that in the context of the appreciation of the renminbi, as Chinese goods relative prices rise, competitiveness has declined. On the import side, with the rise of national income, the accumulation of social wealth, China's consumption upgrade (from basic consumer demand to the demand for high-end consumer goods), domestic consumption potential is enormous. And from Europe, the United States, Japan's new round of stimulus policy, to expand exports are its important means, so to relax export control of China, to sell more High-tech products (such as precision lathes, high-end electrical and mechanical equipment, medical equipment, etc.) is the general trend.　　In this case, the gradual decline in the trade surplus will be inevitable phenomenon.　　October 27, Commerce Minister Chen Deming inspected the 108th session of the Canton Fair, said the world economy, although the recovery process, but multiple indications that the process of recovery is slow, complex and fragile, there are a large number of uncertainties. "From the current situation, companies have been in the exchange rate changes, labor price increases and other factors have been considered and prepared." "But the uncertainty caused by the current problem is even more difficult because of the uncontrolled release of the dollar and the continuing rise in international commodity prices, which is bringing in an import inflation ' shock ' to China," Mr Chen said. (Stock market Weekly feeds)