Chinese Academy of Sciences to map the next 5-10 years of science and technology

"Because they seize the opportunity!" "Despite the 1 years that have passed, when LU about the research achievements of the Chinese research team in the field of neutrinos," he said, "the international competition was so intense that if the Chinese team didn't start collecting data ahead of time, it would not take weeks for other countries to get the results." ”

The Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences explains the importance of making "strategic judgments" before major research missions. Today, the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing released the "New situation of science and technology development and the strategic choice for the 2020" (hereinafter referred to as the report), which is included in the Chinese Academy of Sciences, including Lu, more than 200 experts to spend more than 1 years of research.

4 years ago, almost the same group of experts spent two years to draw a map of China to the 2050 Science and Technology development Roadmap, "Innovation 2050: Science and technology and China's future" research report, immediately stir both at home and abroad. When the Chinese Academy of Sciences Dean LU to "people without foresight, there must be worries" to describe the report, now, the team of experts in the study of "foresight" after the target to "worries" for the next 5-10 years, that is, 2020 the new situation of science and technology Development research.

"Aiming for the next 7 years, the time scale is closer and tighter. "The Chinese Academy of Sciences Dean Bai to describe the difference between the two, more importantly, in the sixth Revolution on the eve of the scientific research personnel and even scientific research institutions how to go," How to achieve our innovation across development ", this development map or can give a reference.

IC field is entering the "post-Moore era", the computer gradually entered the "post-PC era", "Wintel" platform is disintegrating, the Internet will enter the "post-IP Era" ... Today, the academician of CAs and the Research Institute of Computing Technology Guojie a series of "after" the beginning of the term introduced in the next 5-10 years in the field of information network will be a breakthrough in science and technology. This is only part of the 10 areas covered by the report, and it is a small piece of the day's report that predicts and describes the technological development landscape of the next 5-10 years.

In the general section of the report, it presents major scientific and technological events that may occur in the world, major technological breakthroughs in China and key scientific and technological strategies that need to be strengthened or accelerated. The most notable of these are the 22 major scientific and technological events that may occur in the world in the next 5-10 years, such as the neutrino oscillation experiment is expected to speed up the solution of "The mystery of the disappearance of antimatter", quantum information technology will become the next generation of information technology and the foundation, graphene will become the "post New forms of life-breeding based on stem cells will emerge, and so on.

The report said that there are seven major areas and directions, the need for China to strengthen the layout of the Jiangmen neutrino experiment, dark matter and dark energy research and exploration, large data science platform research, brain cognitive science major issues, "artificial life" and synthetic biology, photosynthesis mechanism, "artificial chloroplasts" Research and sustainable research on the Earth system in the Tibetan Plateau.

Large data science or the latest paradigm of scientific research, but domestic deployment nearly blank

Especially noteworthy is the large data science, "not just statistics, algebra, and even the topology of the scientists are concerned about large data." Guojie said. The report is also devoted to the general introduction of changes in this area: compared with the three classical scientific research paradigms, such as experimental science, theoretical analysis and computer simulation, large data science will become a new scientific research paradigm.

Data are everywhere, and the McKinsey Global Institute predicts that by 2020 global data use is expected to rise 44 times times, to 35ZB, relative to 2011. In particular, digital information is pouring out from a variety of sensors, test instruments, analog laboratories, cultural entertainment companies and digital terminals used by individuals. According to the report, the huge amount of data that exceeds the processing capacity of the traditional database system implies great value, and in the case of network data, it is reported that the relationship between the network data is actually the interrelationship between people.

However, many of these data are missing, duplicated, or worthless. For scientists, the main task in the future is not to get more and more data, but to classify the data, refine, and excavate the knowledge from the data. The report says that for more than hundreds of years, scientific research has been doing "from thin to thick", turning "small data" into "Big Data", and now the thing to do is "from thick to thin" to turn "big data" into "small data".

Although academics have noted the opportunities and challenges posed by large data, there has been no consensus on the scientific challenges posed by big data. In his last speech, the late Turing Prize winner, Jim Grey, in 2007, described the "four paradigm" vision of scientific research, separating large data science from the third paradigm, computer simulations. A famous quote from Google Research director Pete can be summed up in the distinction: "All models are wrong, and without these models increases your chances of success." The report found that Google's advertising optimization, the fight against human "IBM Watson question and answer system" is achieved, and this is the "four paradigm" charm.

Accordingly, countries around the world began to deploy relevant policies on large data. March 2012, the United States government has launched a "large data research and development Innovation Program", then 6 departments allocated 200 million U.S. dollars, to increase the analytical capacity of 100 times times to extract information from the text of various languages. The report said it was a landmark event, stating that after the integration of integrated circuits and the Internet, large data has become a focus of information technology.

Unfortunately, China's current layout is almost blank, and the report recommends "urgent deployment as soon as possible". Specifically, the report says China needs to build a national public innovation platform that conforms to the paradigm of this new type of scientific research activity, especially a state-level basic data resource base, a multidisciplinary, interdisciplinary, national science and technology resource system that includes biological databases, population and clinical samples, and electronic health repositories.

Historical revelation: The talents in the technological revolution are mainly native-trained

These new developments in science and technology will ultimately be implemented by people, scientists and inventors. The monograph part of the report mentions that the technological revolution has always been the emergence of many remarkable scientists and inventors, as well as a vivid picture of "brilliant stars". They come from different countries or regions, most of which have completed their major discoveries or inventions before the age of 50.

It is noteworthy that in the event of a technological revolution in Italy, Britain, France, Germany and other countries or regions, scientists and inventors are mainly in the local culture, that is, endogenous mainly. This is in the opinion of many writers of the report "very worthy of reference". Russia has learned this experience, which relied heavily on the introduction of good Western European scientists in the 18th century and later on locally trained talent. In the former Soviet Union, the country developed the international first-class aerospace experts such as the state of Colorado.

At the same time, it is a big deal for governments to attract talented people from other countries. After World War II, the gathering of American talent and the loss of German scientists is an obvious example. The report said that the United States has benefited most from the global talent competition, it has absorbed the German Nazi persecution, exclusion of excellent scientists, and in the Second World War continued to attract a large number of excellent "seedlings" and scientists, engineers and other talent.

There is no doubt that good people tend to flow into developed countries with many development opportunities and conditions, and the latter countries are generally disadvantaged in the field of talent competition, and their technology development relies on endogenous talents and attracts international talents as much as possible.

But for the post-development countries, including China, it is worth further exploring the improvement of the environment of talent cultivation and innovation. The report gives a negative case, in which the former Soviet Union, which borrowed the dogmatic ideology of the Western school of Genetics, tied the creativity of scientific exploration. This historical detail has been a matter for scientific researchers. The report's study group also included a special report on the importance of the cultural environment for science and technology. "In an environment where thought is confined, industrialization does not necessarily bring about a healthy development of science," the report said. ”

In the case of China, the report says China is weak in its modernization process and too "instrumental" in Science and "spirit". Specifically, in the important scientific direction is basically in the forefront of the level of tracking, really by the Chinese first to put forward new problems, new theories and new directions are few; Key core technology controlled, many important industries have high degree of external dependence, leading strategic high-tech field layout is weak; More importantly, China has still not fundamentally solved the problem of "two skins" of the science and technology economy.

"Qian Xuesen's question" was again mentioned, the report said, "China does not have its own unique innovative things, it is a big educational problem to" not be outstanding talent ", and this is not only the problem of university, from elementary school to university basically all run through the" inculcation-Test "training mode, in some fields, the prevalence of respect for authority and dogma.

The end of the report is put on the "reform", the solution "worries" must have "foresight". The more than 200 experts gave a bold way out, "to carry out the kind of education reform that is like the ' abolition of the Imperial examination ' 100 years ago, to try to integrate science and education, technology and the economy more integrated system." ”

Interestingly, "2020" is a special year, this year, the Chinese Academy of Sciences to carry out 10 years of "Knowledge Innovation Project 2020" plan will come to an ending, and the central government also proposed to enter the world in the ranks of talent. In Bai's words, "the two rulers overlap together." He also said that in the face of the new scientific and technological revolution, Chinese scientific research institutions must be "more thoughtful" in talent training. (Reporter Chu Chen hui)

(Responsible editor: The good of the Legacy)