Chinese Academy of Sciences predicts GDP growth of 10% this year

Experts say six types of unexpected factors are worth paying attention to Xinhua Beijing Channel February 7 (reporter Yua Ruifang, Wu Yu) The Chinese Academy of Sciences Forecast Scientific Research Center 6th released the 2010 China Economic important indicators of the latest forecasts, the 2010 GDP growth rate is expected to reach about 10%,　　In 2009, the overall rebound to a good foundation, the 2010 China's economy will show a moderate upward trend. Among them, investment, consumption and net exports have driven GDP growth by 6.3%, 4.2% and 0.5% respectively.　　Quarterly observation, China's economic growth is basically high after the low trend, GDP in the first quarter of 11%, the second quarter is about 10.2%, the third quarter is about 9.5%, the fourth quarter is about 9.8%. In terms of investment, investment growth slowed in 2010 compared with 2009, with total fixed capital investment expected to grow at around 25% per cent.　　Affected by the investment stimulus policy, government investment will continue to grow, private investment continues to rebound, agriculture, transportation and livelihood related industries are still the key industries of investment. While consumption keeps growing steadily, in the 2010, with the improvement of the external environment, the import and export trade will show a clear recovery.　　It is estimated that 2010, China's total import and export growth of about 17.6%, export growth of about 16.6% year-on-year, import growth of about 18.9%, the surplus year-on-year growth of about 4.8%. As for prices, 2010, the rebound in the economy, liquidity, inflation expectations and resource price reform and other factors will lead to rising prices, and overcapacity, adequate supply of agricultural products and price control and other factors will curb the sharp rise in prices, forecast for 2010 prices will increase modestly,　　Annual CPI growth of about 3.06% per cent year-on-year, PPI growth of about 5.22%. The Director of China and the World Economic Research Center at Tsinghua University said that, in general, forecasts are based on events that do not occur in emergencies.　　He believes that the 2010 China's economy behind the beautiful forecast data, there are six types of unexpected events worth attention, the need to prepare and plan ahead. First, the food supply of the weather and climate change is short-lived, such as the weather, snow, snow, drought, temporary climatic effects, etc., which make the supply of agricultural products fluctuate, thus passing to the price and index; second, the influence of the change of investment and financing policy on the fixed assets investment projects Third, the impact of the sharp fluctuation of asset prices on the stable operation of financial institutions and the stability of social mentality; four is because of regional friction caused by the supply of oil and other commodities to reduce or pause caused the sudden rise in product prices; Five is the global market turmoil in local areas, and six is the impact of trade protectionism and green environmental protection overlap on exports. Finish)