Chinese People's University report says China's economy is facing a recession

"China Economic Weekly," reporter Bang Jialong | Shanghai reported that the future of China's economy will not "two dip"?　　The controversy has been so lively since July that the events that triggered the market's anxieties stem from the Chinese economy's semi-annual report, published by the National Bureau of Statistics. In mid-July this year, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that China's GDP grew by 11.1% in the first half of 2010, slowing significantly from 11.9% in the first quarter.　　GDP grew at 10.3% in the second quarter, also significantly below the first-quarter growth rate. Bashusong, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the State Council's Development Research Center, said in an interview with China Economic Weekly in Shanghai: "Some of the economic data that began in 5 June this year, including the manufacturing Purchasing Managers index PMI, was somewhat unexpected." Investment growth may also fall in the coming months. "China's Macroeconomic Analysis and prediction report (Mid-2010)," published in July by the School of Economics of Renmin University, in stark contrast to the view that China's economy will face a "secondary recession" in the coming months, it argues that China's macroeconomic "foresight" (long term economic growth momentum is insufficient) is better than "immediate worries" ( Economic growth rate declines).　　Yang Ruilong, President of Renmin University of China, said that the current macro-economic prosperity and upsurge of the situation has a strong short-term and false, the first half of the rapid growth of macroeconomic output, the rapid rebound in prices, it does not mean that China's economy has entered a lasting upward cycle. The "second depression" erupted in four quarters, but not "two times." The report said that although China's macro-economy will not appear "two dip" this year, but GDP growth will be a strong quarterly decline in the trend of multiple economic downturn, such as export growth fell back, real estate investment decline led to lower fixed investment, Last year's higher data than the tail factor (refers to the previous period price changes in the next phase of the impact of the index) and so on, will erupt in the fourth quarter of this year, causing China to have "quarterly GDP growth below 9%", "monthly CPI growth fell to about 2%", "total balance and dynamic deterioration" of the "second recession" situation,　　This led to a sharp decline in macroeconomic prosperity in the 2011. What is a "secondary depression"?　　Yang Ruilong's definition is that the "secondary depression" refers to the macro-economy has emerged from recession, the rebound after the economic downturn, resulting in the economic oscillation, volatility, differentiation of the bottom operating characteristics, but the decline is not enough to constitute a "two dip" standard.　　and "Two dip", in response to China's situation, the report gives the definition is: sales, employment and other macro-data in a row for more than 4 consecutive months, and make GDP growth rate of two consecutive quarters below 8%. In the first half of this year, China's macro economy continued its strong rebound since the two quarter of last year, with many indicators reaching a high level in recent years, Liu Yuanchun, deputy dean of the Economic Institute of Renmin University. But this economic rebound and recovery is based on factors such as strong stimulus policies. The dynamic mechanism of economic growth is seriousDepending on the continuation of stimulus policies and the recovery of World economic uncertainty, the growth trend is characterized by short-term, fragility and variability.　　Shanghai is the first to "peak down"?　　Since the international financial crisis, global economists have been keen on predicting economic recovery, including U, L, W and V, which have become intuitive symbols for predicting economic trends. In early June, Li, a member of the central Bank's monetary policy committee, said in an interview with the People's Daily that the pattern of a V-shaped rebound in the Chinese economy had been formed, and that the basis for a V-shaped rebound was the rapid growth of consumer demand, which maintained more than 15% per cent growth　　Fixed assets investment to maintain the growth rate of around 25% is basically no doubt, external demand will not be due to the crisis and the apparent contraction. Is the situation so optimistic? One months later, the report of the School of Economics, Renmin University of China, saw the other side of the economy's "V-shaped rebound".　　Yang Ruilong that the first half of this year, China's economic growth to a large extent depends on the "inventory back", so the foundation of the rebound is not solid, trend instability, power is not obvious. The so-called "inventory recovery" refers to the enterprise due to economic crisis in the real and psychological impact, in the economic crisis will be a large number of inventory clean-up, resulting in a slight improvement in the economy there is a large number of replenishment needs.　　But such replenishment behavior does not mean that the market has a strong consumption capacity, and the economic indicators will be reflected in strong data growth. "The report" that the return on inventory benefits led to the first half of this year's economic growth rate of high operation, but also the second half of the economic rapid decline in one of the reasons. In particular, the multiple declines will erupt in the fourth quarter, leading to a sharp decline in investment and exports in the four quarter, with a "small pullback leading to accelerated decline".　　Taking real estate as an example, Liu Yuanchun, deputy dean of the Economic Institute of Renmin University of China, said that with real estate prices falling in the four quarter, fixed asset investment would also fall considerably. From the experience of the past, Shanghai's economic growth compared to the country is often a shot to half, with a leading indicator significance. "Shanghai's economic growth has been showing signs of peaking since May," Shanghai Municipal Government Development Research Center director Zhou Zhenhua told reporters: "The former high and low will lead to the third quarter of Shanghai, the superposition of various factors, the impact on the Shanghai economy is relatively large, and the national economy will be similar in the four quarter."　　"Where is the new power?"　　It is noteworthy that, in the course of this round of economic speculation, foreign institutions are not divided on the issue of slowing China's economy, but the extent of the slowdown is very different. Frank Gong, chairman of JP Morgan Securities (Asia-Pacific) Limited, a longtime bullish outlook for China's economic growth, expressed concern about uncharacteristically. "At present, China's economic restructuring has not been completed, economic growth is too dependent on real estate and foreign trade, and these two driving China's rapid economic development of the carriage will be gradually stalled," he told the China Economic Weekly. If the global economy shows up two times, China's economic growth will be ahead of the high and low, GDP grew by or below 8% in the fourth quarter.　　However, the 2010 Asia Outlook and strategy year, issued by the eastern Bank of France, said that even taking into account the impact of local debt and real estate regulation policies, China's GDP growth could remain at 10% this year, perhaps until next year, when China's GDP growth rate slows to 9%.　　According to the China Economic Weekly, Citibank, the analysis of foreign banks, such as HSBC Group and Standard Chartered Bank, noted that these foreign institutions have expressed varying degrees of concern about the gradual withdrawal of China's stimulus policy, the introduction of a new deal, the liquidation of local investment and financing platforms and the difficulty of economic restructuring. In contrast, Suisse, managing director of Credit Suisse and Asia's chief economics, told the China Economic Weekly that, while there are such or such problems in China's economy, in the long run, China's new super factor is urbanization.　　Urbanization can lead to the next stage of China's consumption, the large number of rural population into the city will detonate a wave of consumption boom. Bashusong told reporters that the central government now hopes to take urbanization as the driving force for China's economic growth, while high house prices are anti-urbanization, the central authorities have clearly seen such a situation.　　There are signs that policymakers are unlikely to regain real estate to save the downturn. Liu Yuanchun said that the current macro-economic development should be adapted to the cyclical transition period and structural adjustment of the inflection point of service, rather than the absolute maintenance of economic growth. First, macroeconomic objectives should be appropriately lowered and the target of inflation appropriately adjusted. Secondly, it is inappropriate to take excessive administrative measures to find the source of growth for the next cycle.　　Thirdly, the short-term macro-policy should pay attention to the lag of the downward force and the synchronous eruption, and pay attention to the superposition effect of regulation policy. Wang Yiming, executive vice president of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Research Institute, said that we should not be too worried about the economic slowdown, and that speed down is not necessarily a bad thing, sacrificing a little speed, in exchange for longer and healthier growth.