Chuan Yi Cheng Longcheng two shares rose soaring quotation

Meng Qingjian from each reporter by Shenzhen

The online travel market giant "Three Kingdoms" may soon become "duo turn."

Recently, the industry is rumored that EGL major shareholder Expedia or by way of convertible shares held by its 65% Ellon shares transferred to Ctrip, the latter will have 82.4% of the voting rights.

Journalists at the Daily Economic News noted that capital markets had reacted earlier. Art eclipses share price rose more than 60% in recent two weeks, on June 30 the single day rose to 22%, a record high in six months. At the same time, Ctrip shares once reached the highest record of 65.20 US dollars.

The authenticity of the news, Ctrip and Yi Long are noncommittal. Insiders analysis, Ctrip and eLong are highly homogeneous business, the acquisition of little significance, do not rule out the secondary market is only manipulating public opinion to push up stock prices. There are also US stocks investors questioned the news is not released eLong shares rose earlier, may be involved in insider trading.

Price rise ahead of doubt

Recently, OTA (online travel) frequent acquisitions rumors. July 1, eLong's outbreak in the US stock market once again aroused the online travel market on the powerful combination of imagination.

Sources said the same day, eLong will have a significant good disclosure. Until July 4, consulting firm MabridgeConsulting quoted informed sources as saying Ctrip plans to acquire a 65% stake (82.4% of the voting rights) in eLong owned by the US online travel giant Expedia through a stock swap agreement, The value of 800 million to 1 billion US dollars. Art Dragon is currently worth $ 754 million.

In the field of hotel reservations, eLong and Ctrip have long been rivals. And Ctrip, where the difference between different, Ctrip and eLong business overlap is very high. In addition, eLong is currently trapped in a loss of quagmire. Earnings, eLong first quarter net loss of 35.4 million yuan, while the loss of 2.8 million yuan a year earlier.

ELong's current shareholding is as follows: Expedia, the largest shareholder, owns 65% of the equity and up to 82.4% of the voting power, Tencent holds 15.7% of the equity and 15.1% of the voting power. According to the current market value, Ctrip is expected to come up with 15% of the shares in exchange.

However, the non-normal performance of eLong shares, many investors questioned the major issues of eLong have been leaked in advance. Due to the current fundamentals of artilong and no significant positive, it is difficult to support the stock soaring. Hu Yaoping, founder of DCCI Internet Data Center, questioned in Weibo. "Before the news was announced, the stock price of eLong changed significantly. Whether the sharp increase was suspected of insider trading? After the merger, the monopoly market share was formed. Whether the acquisition itself needs to be monopolized Question exclusion survey?

Some media quoted people close to eLong as saying that Expedia wants to make the deal possible, provided that eLong's market value (or valuation) must be raised to 800 million to 1 billion US dollars. Rumors also aggravated the market eclipsing, Ctrip behind the scenes of the stock market speculation stock price speculation.

However, the Daily Economic News reporter yesterday (July 7) adopted a multi-party interview and did not get any definitive evidence of the "insider operation" of any stock from any authoritative person.

Antitrust investigation or difficult to avoid

"Daily Economic News" correspondents were telephoned yesterday, eLong, Ctrip-related person in charge, the answer is claimed to be unknowing, anything between the two companies "no comment." Wei Changren, chief analyst of online travel consulting firm, said: "Although there are many rumors, it can not be confirmed that the news is real. Ctrip did not get any news in advance when it cooperated with Tongcheng Network and Touyou.com. This time it is obviously anomalous of."

Rumors have drawn the attention of the industry because it is "earthquake-magnitude" news for the promising OTA market. Some analysts believe that Ctrip, Tongcheng and eLong occupy the Chinese OTA market share of nearly 70%, of which Ctrip and eLong two in the domestic online hotel sector share of more than 50%, if together, either Ctrip Holdings or only a small stake Investment, will in essence form a "coalition", which will likely subvert the original market structure.

OTA's main profit model is to receive commissions, that is, by participating in the market twice pricing, based on the prices given by hotels and airlines to consumers overcharged part of the money to form their own revenue, accounting for such a large share of the two companies Once the alliance, most likely to eventually form a "price union."

Airfare, the continuing price war in the hotel sector, although the pressure on corporate profits, but consumers enjoy the benefits. Wei Changren said that after Ctrip took the eLong, competition will be weakened, the two sides in the hotel, tickets and other areas cashback will be weakened, the profit may be raised, the retail price may be raised.

Yang Yanfeng, an associate researcher at China Institute of Tourism, said: "As a leading domestic online hotel booking market, top-tier deals and mergers and acquisitions have potential monopoly issues, the Ministry of Commerce may launch an antitrust investigation."

OTA huge market space

IResearch data show that in 2013, China's online travel market transactions 220.46 billion yuan, by 2015, this figure is expected to reach 340 billion yuan, the space is still very large.

Huge "cake" for Chinese Internet companies to step up competition, Ctrip fastest action. Through a series of investment and mergers and acquisitions, Ctrip tried to create an online travel ecosystem. Since 2013, Ctrip has made a series of investments in upstream and downstream products and suppliers.

"Ctrip eLong after the completion of the merger, because the degree of overlap is very high, in fact, eliminated a competitor, almost no complementarity, it is difficult to form a dominance." Wei Changren believes that Ctrip is not only faced with an opponent, Compared to Ctrip, Baidu has the backing of where the network, get more support at the business level. In particular, to create a one-stop travel and travel services, and where to get a lot of resources from Baidu to support compared to Ctrip as "alone."

Data show that where the current airline ticket business has accounted for 22% of China's aviation market share, is China's largest ticket distribution platform. "If eLong and where to go hand in hand, the value gained in the business complement each other far exceeds the marriage of Ctrip coincide, showing that Ctrip want to control eLong, most likely out of defense." Wei Changren said.

Giant vertical and horizontal, squeezing the survival of the second tier OTA. Analysis, the breakdown of the vertical site and buy site still have a chance. Yi Huanhuan, deputy director of Hongyuan Securities Institute, said Ctrip's core business is air tickets and hotels, the way cattle customized for tourism products, with Cheng advantage lies in short-term travel and low-cost sales scenic tickets, where to rely mainly on traffic and Traffic profit, ant cell, poor travel network, bread travel mainly rely on travel Raiders agglomeration effect through advertising, content implantation and other ways to win the market. "Online Travel Social" will also open up some markets in the future, and the agents will share the cake in the online travel market with different modes of operation.

Wei Changren that similar to the United States Mission, the public comment network these buy sites are also cut into the OTA market. Group buy site has a strong push to push the team, such as the United States mission in the country have more than 3,000 people to push staff, compared to Ctrip, eLong these OTA company advertised light assets, marketing and maintenance capabilities have great advantages. For example, in some low-level information technology, medium and low-end hotels, sign-ups superior buy site has a lot of market space, at the same time they have a large user base and a certain bargaining power, the prospects are very impressive.