Citic Securities HU-Fan: The second half of the renminbi or appreciation 3% to 5%

March 2 Afternoon news, in response to China's macroeconomic problems in the second half of this year, Sina Financial securities learned from the Sino-US trade frictions in the second half of this year or will improve, the second half of the renminbi 3% to 5% appreciation space. With the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, President Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama and the Google incident, the recent Sino-US relations have changed subtly. And the impact of political friction on the macro-economy, Sina Finance, the securities chief macro-economist Yifan Office won her opinion. These issues will be reflected in trade, exchange rates and investment, Hu said.　　She told Sina Finance that the trade dispute between the two countries could continue to heat up in 2010 years, amid high unemployment and weak domestic demand, but she expects the trade frictions to improve in the second half of 2010 as the US economy recovers. On the issue of appreciation of the renminbi, Hu Fan said to Sina finance, as China's economic and trade recovery and international pressure, the renminbi is expected to appreciate 3% to 5% this year, the appreciation will start from 2 quarters or 3 quarters.　　The change trend of RMB exchange rate in the future, Hu-Fan is vividly summed up as "interval floating, snake climbing." Although recent capital inflows have been halted as a result of increased risk appetite and a rise in the dollar, Yifan that the influx of capital into China is likely to continue. Yifan pointed out that China's monopoly industry, domestic consumer-related industries, as well as High-tech and new energy industries will continue to be popular. In addition to portfolio investment, a new wave of foreign direct investment is expected in the coming years in China's high-end manufacturing and service sectors, given the large population and rising consumption capacity and desire. (Yuet from Hong Kong)