Citic Securities: The second half of a shares continued to concussion upward

Securities Times reporter Sun Xiaoxia today, Citic Securities held in Chengdu for two days, the theme of "Recovery and Transformation" of the 2009 medium-term strategy.　　Citic Securities believes that China's "U"-type recovery situation is more certain, the future economic growth will begin to rebound quarterly, the second half of a-share will still shock upward. Economic growth is set to rebound by the end of last year, the central government launched 4 trillion investment plans, the implementation of a loose monetary policy, the first 5 months of the year to extend credit 6 trillion yuan, the continuous increase in export tax rebates to ensure the employment of migrant workers, and vigorously develop regional economy and so on. Under the impetus of these policies, China's economic growth decline gradually stabilized, the real economic activity began to rise. Private investment is also showing signs of recovery, driven by government investment. At the same time, there are signs that America's economic slowdown is bottoming out and starting a difficult L-shaped recovery process.　　Overall, Citic believes that China's economy has entered the right half of the U-shaped recovery, and that future growth will begin to pick up on a quarterly basis. In the long run, the financial crisis has sounded a wake-up call to the world, the future of the global economy will undergo a process from imbalance to rebalancing, China's exports are difficult to reproduce the past 10 years of strong growth, the future growth of China's economy will be driven by exports and investment to consumption and domestic demand growth.　　The transformation will become one of the important characteristics of China's economic recovery in the future, and urbanization will be an important way to solve the imbalance of economy and economy during the economic recovery. From the point of view of economic change, Citic Securities believes that the impetus for economic recovery is gradually progressive. The second quarter to inventory basically ended, three quarter real estate investment accelerated, four-quarter export decline narrowed or even positive growth.　　In addition, deflation is nearing its end, with prices expected to hit bottom in the three quarter, and four quarters to be growing. The second half of the trend will still shock upward for the future trend of the capital market, Citic Securities that the A-share market with "two yuan" value structure and valuation structure. The A-share market is dominated by three major industries, finance, oil and coal, which accounts for about 50% of the three industries, with a profit of more than 73%, compared with just 15% per cent of GDP. The unique market value structure of a A-share determines its impact on global liquidity, which requires us to look at China's stock market from the perspective of large-class asset allocation. In addition, the valuation structure of A shares is also relatively special, large market capitalisation companies generally have lower valuations.　　Citic Securities thus summed up the three major factors affecting a-share market: policy, liquidity and economic recovery expectations. Overseas economies, the United States and other economies gradually bottomed out and gradual recovery, should be the main trend in the second half of the year, low interest rates will remain in the environment for more than six months. Since the United States does not yet have a leading industry to act as a liquidity carrier, future liquidity should be biased towards the export of inflation attributes, that is, the preference for equities and commodities. From the monetary factor, the dollar index still tends to fall in the second half. Commodities and emerging markets will remain a favoured target. At the same time, in the context of accelerating urbanization, investment and consumption will be the future stockThe theme of investment, real estate, automobiles, new energy and equipment manufacturing will be China's new round of economic growth in the leading industry.　　The low interest rate environment and the 78 trillion new lending this year will put the economy in a state of liquidity until the recovery has been effectively identified. For the stock market trend, Citic Securities that a share market in the second half of the trend will continue to shock upward, industrial enterprise profits will be significantly improved in the year, four quarters will resume positive growth. The performance of listed companies is expected to rebound in 7-August, the current market valuation is basically reasonable. For many investors worried about the two dip, Citic Securities that, because the market generally two of the bottom of the economy from the two dip, so the A-share market two dip risk is less.　　The impact of IPO opening on market capital is small, and the pressure of the ban on restricted stocks in the second half is moderate. In terms of industry choices, Citic Securities starts with two clues about liquidity and economic recovery, it puts emphasis on major finance, resource products and some optional consumer goods, and believes that investment will begin to reach the middle reaches, and the key recommended industries are: banking, insurance, real estate, oil, potash, nonferrous metals, steel, automobiles and post-3G plate.