Coal industry: Incident Impact does not change the industry to the good trend

Accounting policy changes and resource tax rumors: In recent days, the change of accounting policy in coal industry and the rumors that the resource tax is about to be levied make the stock price of the coal listed company fall rapidly, for the above incident, our overall view is that the incident impact in the short term will not change the trend of the coal industry, and we still maintain the industry.　　Leading City-a "investment rating. Accounting policy changes in the short term affect the listed company EPS: The Ministry of Finance issued a corporate accounting standards interpretation of the 3rd draft, for high-risk industries in the treatment of safety costs have changed, that is, the security costs generated by the fixed assets no longer phased depreciation, but in the current period of total entry costs,　　If the implementation of this policy will be in the current period of the coal Enterprise EPS will have a negative impact, according to our calculation, the most influential companies are Lu ' an ring can, ping coal shares, the country yangxin can, the proportion is: 19.3%, 17.8%, 15%. The imposition of a resource tax is subject to industry conditions: The rumor of the resource tax has a long history, mainly is the change is from the quantity levy to the price levy, the market concern lies in the levy proportion, we judged, the resource tax levy will be subject to the industry condition, one need to remind of the fact is: if the coal listed company's profit, The overall profitability of the coal industry is not as good as the market imagine, we simulated the 2009 1-February coal industry eliminated the profit of listed companies, after the net sales rate of only 5.33%, with such profitability, it is impossible to withstand higher tax rates, if the class to heavy tax,　　Then the marginal will be the loss of coal enterprises, resulting in insufficient investment, affecting the stable operation of the economy. The incident impact does not change the industry to the good trend: We reaffirm the coal industry bullish view, specific reasons: 1, the coal industry's supply and demand balance is not done through the market, but through administrative means to complete, that is, the closure of small coal to supply a sharp contraction, so the first to reach the balance And the downstream industry is through the market means to complete the clearing, must be accompanied by a decline in profitability, which is slow and undermines profitability; 2. As the economy recovers, other industries will face a profit recovery, while the coal industry will show a profit growth; 3, in the sub industry, Our preference for coking coal industry The main reason is that its supply of small and medium-sized coal mines, the highest proportion of industry convergence, when the steel production rises, coking coal prices will be the first to rise, recommended: Xishan coal power, Taurus energy, flat coal shares, Kailuan shares, Panjiang shares. These events will only affect stock prices in the short term, not change the trend towards good in the coal industry.