Coal price ahead of summer China Shenhua Coal Energy first benefit

Although the traditional peak of summer electricity has not yet come, but the price of coal has been the first "power consumption" step ahead into the "summer". According to the Qinhuangdao coal trading market data provided, as of May 17, Qinhuangdao calorific value of 5500 kcal of power coal prices have risen to 755 yuan per ton-765 yuan, relative to a week ago (May 10) Price rose 15 yuan/ton.　　This has been the market price of Qinhuangdao power coal rose for the 8th consecutive week. Multiple factors to promote coal price upward on this, Founder Securities research report that this year, the rapid development of national economy, especially the rapid growth of fixed asset investment, for the steady growth of coal demand provides a solid foundation. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, April national power generation, pig iron production, crude steel production and cement production respectively completed 331.64 billion kwh, 51.623 million tons, 55.403 million tons, 161.145 million tons, respectively, the year-on-year growth of 21.4%, 23%,　　27% and 16.1%. At the same time, founder Securities industry analyst Zhang Zhenghua that, with the rise in temperature, the general increase in electricity load, combined with the drought in the southwestern region, the power supply is limited, the increase in electricity to fossil-fuel dependence on the two-quarter coal demand remains exuberant. The current shortage of hydroelectric power generation in the Southwest makes thermal power more stressful, which contributed to the two-quarter coal market boom.　　If water is sufficient in the future for a period of time, hydropower capacity recovery, then the pressure of thermal power is relatively slow, coal prices can enter a relatively stable stage. In addition, the industry experts pointed out that May 5, the State Council to further increase the elimination of backward production capacity; May 13, the three ministries issued a joint dispatch of high energy-consuming enterprises to cancel the preferential price; The National Energy Bureau director Zhang in the "2010 National power industry to eliminate backward capacity workshop" reiterated that, Make sure the target of closing 10 Million-kilowatt small thermal power plants is completed by three quarter of this year.　　is another impetus to push coal prices upward. Experts believe that the policy-intensive introduction fully embodies the state's determination to adjust the industrial structure, so that the industry to the downstream electricity industry, slow growth and the second industry to the whole society to reduce the demand for power consumption to produce judgment.　　However, from the supply-side point of view, Shanxi integrated small mining capacity release was suppressed, while the integration of resources and security checks are underway, the main coal province, the supply capacity continues to be limited. On the upside of coal prices, China Shenhua (601088) reported April 2010 operating data showing that its coal production fell by 1% to 17.3 million tonnes a year, with coal sales growing by 6% to 23.3 million tonnes a year, and sales increasing by 63% to 11.04 billion kwh per year. Coal sales and sales increased by 9% and 3% per month compared with last month. In the first 4 months, coal sales and sales increased by 12% and 56% to 88.4 million tonnes and 41.22 billion kwh per year respectively, equivalent to 32.5% and 35.3% of the full-year target. Experts say coal prices have risen by about 9% since April, and coal demand will enterInto the peak season, the next few months may still rise further. In addition, since March, Shanxi coal mine accident, coal Energy (601898) May in the second consecutive month, a significant increase in its market share since March low 3.1% to 3.9%.　　Compared with the average output of 7.26 tonnes in the first quarter, the average monthly production in April-May increased by 20% to 8.75 tonnes. On the other hand, China coal last year spent 3.5 billion yuan to buy two coal mines in Inner Mongolia 51%, it is expected to increase the coal reserves of 2.2 billion tons, a potential annual output of 14 million tons, plus the first quarter of this year, the new annual output of 5 million tons of coal mines, also help to promote long-term growth. According to management, in the next few years, China coal to strive for the end of 2014, raw coal production reached 200 million tons, commodity coal sales of 200 million tons, operating income of more than 100 billion yuan, to achieve the total amount of energy economy in the coal to double. As two new mines were put into production in the second quarter of this year, experts pointed out that the growth in Chinese coal production may be 2-6% higher than market consensus.