Comments on US bailout policy exit

Wen/Wang Zili in the global economy, there have been some recent changes, the most basic change is "recovery" instead of "crisis", which is now the most popular words. Is the world economy reviving? My personal opinion is that at least in the second half of 2010 can see the clue.　　At present, if we talk about economic recovery, such as China and other countries can talk about, and the global scope, the economy has not recovered, on the contrary, it faces great challenges. It is said that the global economy faces great challenges: first, in the face of the crisis in 2007, governments, without exception, Keynes the banner of "visible Hands", from loose monetary policy to active fiscal policy, effectively curbing the deepening of the crisis.　　However, the economic stimulus of government behavior is fundamentally impossible to stop the crisis and only to alleviate it, and there is a certain limitation. Now two years have passed, and in the present state, governments have consumed almost or even depleted their finances, even with the ability to stimulate further. The role of the government's "visible hand" has been exerted to the extreme, the implementation of a positive and expansionary policy, the direct stimulus will not be economic recovery but hyperinflation, with economic explanation is the government's macro-control effect of marginal benefits are tending to 0 or negative. Once the economy recovers quickly and inflation emerges, the pressure on fiscal imbalances in many countries, particularly in the US and Europe, will be unbearable, leading to a fiscal collapse based on fiscal deficits.　　And the emergence of inflation may force the central bank to shrink monetary liquidity and thus depress economic recovery, which is the real challenge of the so-called exit policy arrangements in the world. Second, the U.S. economic upturn in the crisis has not led to a significant improvement in the double deficit situation, but rather a widespread government deficit in Europe that is being dragged down by the US.　　The US trade deficit, although showing signs of improvement last month, is too slow, and Europe's trade deficit is expanding, and the global crisis has not eased in two directions from the trade deficit and the fiscal deficit. Third, the European and American countries in the near-crazy violation of international treaty restrictions, continuous trade protection and investment protection, has led and formed the global trade protectionism and rapid development, greatly restricting and shrinking the global economy scale and volume, which in itself is to continue to expand the global economic crisis and reduce market efficiency, Reduce the efficiency of global economic resource allocation. From the point of view of global economic integration, the crisis of overcapacity in the world is just beginning, if the European and American countries think that through trade protection can realize the full employment of the country, it is completely wrong to save their own economic direction, its direct effect can only be to stimulate the advent of inflation and the deepening of the crisis　　While it is not difficult to recognize this, it is not easy to do so rationally, so we expect the shrinking trend in global trade to continue to deepen the crisis. Four, competitive devaluation is the inevitable outcome of trade protection, even if the central banks in the United States to bail out the rescue policy, the devaluation of the competition caused by trade protectionism will certainly continue to carry out,This, in turn, will divert countries from playing different games on their exit policies.　　The frequency and range of exit policies will become one of the main tools to influence the exchange rate movements, thus affecting the stability of global financial markets, the result is likely to form a global loss. Therefore, it is premature to talk about exit policy under the present circumstances. In fact, the timing of the exit policy is not shifted by human will, and anyone may have difficulty predicting the timing of bail-outs, and there is little point in talking about exit policies: influencing market expectations and making market expectations affect market-trading prices in a way that is conducive to politicians ' expectations.　　So, we now listen to Bernanke's or Chetry's, their speech on the exit of the bailout policy, nothing more than to continue to take their own position and the cheapest way to induce the direction of global capital flows in favor of their own interests, and the real exit time I think they themselves are not clear. (The author is the vice chairman of the PBC Postgraduate Department Committee)