Commodities stocks soar global madness when liquidity remains plentiful

Every journalist Liu Mingtao on the one hand, loose financial policy has contributed to curbing the economic downturn, but on the other hand, large-scale, centralized financial expansion may bring a greater impact on the solid economy and healthy operation.　　On a global scale, ample liquidity, or lingering outside the real economy, has driven a new round of global markets as inflation expectations have flowed into capital markets and commodity markets.　　But the real economy is not a short-term solution to the problem, in the current economy has not fully recovered, the capital markets and commodity markets, "crazy" or already in the "overdraft" economic warming expectations, and may even be creating a new round of "bubble."　　The essence of liquidity "submerged" market fundamentals have become a foil since last October, liquidity has been the main force to promote a-share market rebound, coupled with the ongoing economic stimulus policy, so this year, the stock index to achieve "month-month red." The first week of June, in the peripheral market rally led, a-share market again ushered in a "start."　　The root cause of the rally is still ample liquidity, and the macro-basic face of the role of the market, but seems to be weakening gradually.　　Liquidity is still plentiful this week a-share market in real estate, finance and petrochemical "double-hung" and other large blue chips, such as the strong pull up, the stock index has climbed sharply, the daily transaction amount also returned to 200 billion yuan mark, reached 243.673 billion yuan, to reproduce this February hot money surging "lively" scene. Some market participants believe that the first week of the strong performance of the market, is still abundant liquidity in the promotion, large stocks of the hurricane, it is from a lot of money pulled up.　　In other words, the continued upward strength of the dominant market still comes from ample liquidity. Tang Securities chief strategy analyst, said, "This week the market was driven out of the boom by bank stocks, mainly triggered by a number of reasons: First, the bank shares at present low valuations, and non-financial plate valuation is a big difference; second, liquidity adequacy itself is a great boon to banks; third, The two-quarter banking sector may be turning a good turn. "Ping An securities strategy researcher Guo Yanhong," The market rally this week was caused by a rise in blue chips, and capital adequacy is one of the leading forces. After all, the rebound in the bear market, liquidity is the main driving factor.　　"The Bohai Securities macro strategy researcher Huangfeng also to" ample liquidity is to promote the A-share market rally this week, "agreed. The latest research report of Bohai Securities, although the new loans in April this year from the previous 1 trillion yuan to fall significantly below 600 billion yuan, but the market interest rates did not rise significantly, then the reduction of new loans does not necessarily lead to a decline in liquidity adequacy In addition, May new loans may still reach about 600 billion yuan, in this calculation, the growth rate of renminbi loans will be increased to more than 30%.　　While loan growth has been growing steadily, the data suggest that interbank lending rates and inter-bank repo rates remain low, suggesting that the liquidity situation has not changed.The fundamentals have weakened as the capital continues to dominate the market, the stimulus to the market is weakening. Market participants believe that, although the current market has continued to stimulate the economic policy, and macroeconomic data is also warming, the economic fundamentals recovery is expected to continue to strengthen. But the market response to such information tends to be bland.　　For example, the introduction of economic policy, good stocks have been difficult to maintain a continuous rise in the situation, the agency's enthusiasm for the concept of a good theme stock speculation is not so strong as before. In addition, the A-share market often reflects the macro-fundamentals of the "Warm and cold", this year the market a major investment theme is economic recovery. At present, Prev Close from 1600多 points has rebounded 1000多 points, the market on the economic side of the warming estimate has been early digestion, or even reached the "overdraft" level.　　Then the macro-data improvement, the role of the market or is only "icing on the cake." The May data impact is small, starting next week and May major macro data will be released.　　Macro-analysts at Guotai and other institutions say that the domestic economy as a whole is in a slow state of recovery after bottoming out. In particular, the projected May urban fixed assets investment and total retail sales of social consumer goods is expected to continue a small increase, but import and export year-on-year or continue to slow down; by the seasonal decline in food prices, May CPI or continue to decline, PPI year-on-year growth rate is roughly the same as April.　　According to State Grid dispatch data, May output was down 3.5% year-on-year, down from April's 3.55% decline.　　From the various indications, May macro data show that our economy will continue to improve, some market participants said that, although the market expectations, but these macro-data has limited impact on the market. In addition, the latest trend of new shares issued next week, the recent market has been a certain digest. But industry insiders believe that the biggest impact of the IPO restart is on investor confidence, so the information is more deserving of investor attention.　　[Page] crazy performance? Peripheral stock market Dow three months or 35% per reporter Mao Jinnan recently, the world's major stock markets have soared, so that a-share investors see in the eyes, happy in the heart.　　From US equities to European equities to the region's major stock markets, the gloom of the recession seems to be in the past, with big rallies. GM's bankruptcy protection Dow rose June 1 morning, General Motors filed for insolvency protection, not only did not hit the U.S. stock, but it has become a new force to boost U.S. stocks.　　On that day, the Dow Jones Industrial average rose 2.6%, closed at 8721.44, creating a new high since the rally, with the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq also following the Dow. In fact, in recent months, the trend of the U.S. stock market has been relatively strong, since March this year, the lowest to 6470.11 points, followed by the launch of a boom, to this Thursday close, the Dow closed at 8751.17 points, the period rose to 35%. During the same period, NassThe duck index, which was 1265.62 points from its lowest point, surged to 1850.02 but rose to 46%.　　With the U.S. "Printing" the dollar, leading to a new round of devaluation of the dollar, a lot of liquidity began to flow into the global stock market, which led to the rally in U.S. and global stock markets.　　Asia-Pacific, European stock markets have been seen in the face of the U.S. stock market and European stock markets, in the continuous red of U.S. stocks, also launched a substantial increase. Major European stock markets have risen sharply, with France's CAC40 index reaching 2465.46 points in March this year to 3347.3 in Beijing, and 3399.59 in the afternoon, or more than 35%.　　The Italian MIB index, Germany's DAX index and so on were also excellent, the former's biggest rise even reached 60%. Major stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region also performed well, with the Nikkei 225 rising from its lowest 7021.28 point, and Friday at 9,768, up 40%.　　Indonesia's comprehensive index, the Thai composite, and so on are also a continuous surge. Hong Kong's performance also swept the gloom, the Hang Seng index rose from 11344.58 in March to 18679.53 in Friday, and the state-owned enterprise index rose from 6403.95 to 10862.05 in Friday.　　Both indices rose more than 60%.　　The rise of Hong Kong stocks has also become a direct force for the rise of a shares, state-owned enterprises in the mainland banks, insurance, real estate, transportation and other sectors of the stock, have also appeared a sharp rise, stimulated a A-share market, the simultaneous pull of blue chips. Crazy performance? A shares on the periphery of the "small spring" strong push A shares on the 2,700 points per reporter Liu Mingtao A-share market in the Dragon Boat Festival after the first week of a small holiday, ushered in a good start, Shanghai Composite index bang up 2,700 points,　　Finally closed at 2753.89, this week rose to 4.59%, deep card exponentially also rising, and in Friday to create a rebound in the new high 10817.04 points. The strong performance of a-share market has also boosted the market sentiment, the amplification of volume is the best proof.　　However, the A-share market can have such a good performance, but also to "thank" the peripheral market in the Dragon Boat Festival during the rally. Peripheral rally to enhance confidence in late May a-share market shocks downward market, shaken the confidence of many investors.　　May the last three trading days of the number of accounts are only 176,000, the position of 48.5338 million households, these figures show that investors cautious outlook on the psychological, and the uncertainty of the holiday has become a major factor in the psychology of investors. However, just a few days in a-share, under the lead of strong U.S. stocks, the periphery of the major stock indexes have been upward, the global stock market rally for this month's a-share of the "start" market injected a needle "tonic."　　More important, investor psychology is boosted by the strength of the peripheral market. Some market people believe that after the 2008 a-share market plungedAnd after the global financial crisis, investors have become particularly sensitive to peripheral market information. The performance of the peripheral stock market also directly affects the confidence of a a-share investors, whenever U.S. stocks or Hong Kong stocks weak, investors will be worried about the market, showing pessimism. But that's why, when the peripheral stock market is collectively warming and surging, the confidence of a-share investor can be quickly restored.　　This week's strong trend in the A-share market, with the U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stock rally has a close relationship, in other words, the strength of the peripheral market has led to a a-share market. The market sentiment gathers again on the other hand, the periphery market rally also lets the A-share market sentiment to gather again. In this week's a-share market rally, the volume of the cities than the Dragon Boat Festival before the obvious amplification. In addition to the decline in Friday, the first four trading days of the week, the total volume of the two cities has maintained a positive trend of gradual increase. The average daily turnover of 243.673 billion yuan this week, also compared to last week's average daily turnover increased by 36.55%.　　In the volume of moderate amplification with the cooperation of the market to do a strong atmosphere, a shares this week to go out on the market. One market Personage said, "From this week's a-share volume, there has been a big rebound, market sentiment in the past month after the downturn to gather again." From the market performance can be seen, investors do more than willing to participate in trading enthusiasm is also high. These gratifying performance, are the peripheral market ' small Yangchun ' help push a A-share reflection. "Crazy performance?" The commodity market "crazy oil" led to a strong commodity rally after every reporter Zhang Hao the Dragon Boat Festival, a sharp spike in oil prices led to a sharp rebound in global commodity markets. U.S. crude oil July contract May 26 closed at 62.45 U.S. dollars/barrel, after several consecutive trading days on a strong attack. To this Thursday, the report closed at 68.81 USD/barrel, the highest touch of 69.59 U.S. dollars/barrel.　　The Friday electronic trading session, this strength continues, the price of the next approximation of the 70 dollar mark. Commodities soared in the "King of commodities" crude oil rebound, so that the entire commodity market to show a warm atmosphere. In terms of basic metals, the LME3-month copper contract rose 6.15% per cent to $5090 in the run-up to a major breakthrough earlier this week.　　The rest of the week, the price performance remains strong. Compared to the strength of copper in the metal, this week the trend of aluminum can be described as "crazy". Early in the week LME3 aluminum contract inertia, the day Rose 3.47%, closed at 1490 U.S. dollars, the Thursday March contract for the whole day rose to 7.99%, the report closed at 1582 U.S. dollars. During the Friday electronic trading session, the price of the period was completely out of tune, with the top up to $1611.　　In addition, zinc, tin, lead and other metals in this week out of the rising market. Gold's trend this week is particularly striking. May 29 International Gold price breakthrough pre-finishing platform, on the day of 979.42 USD/oz. [Page] The fundamentals are expected to rebound as the international commodity market rebounds, in addition to inflationary expectations, another important factor is the expected rise in the economic recovery. Friday U.S. Labor Department data showed that the United States May non-farm employment reduced by 345,000 people, the market forecast to reduce 520,000 people. That bodes well for the labour market. Tuesday U.S. construction spending rose sharply in April, the latest 8-month record. Personal income also rose to a recent 11-month high.　　The May New Order index rose to 51.1 from 47.7 in April, the first time since November 2007. The upturn in economic data suggests that consumer demand is emerging. U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 2.9 million barrels to 366 million barrels in the week of May 29, mainly because of import growth, the Energy Data Association (EIA) announced in Wednesday. From petrol consumption, when the week of the U.S. gasoline inventory again reduced by 200,000 barrels to 203.2 million barrels. The use of local refinery equipment in the United States rose to 86.3%.　　OPEC Secretary-General Badri expects oil prices to reach 70~75 dollar/barrel before the end of the year. In addition, LME basic metal inventories are also continuing to decline. Friday inventory data showed that the LME copper inventory again reduced by 3225 tons to 299975 tons.　　Write-off Warehouse list 34825 tons, accounting for 11.61% of the inventory. In addition, U.S. Treasury yields have been rising sharply recently, but the government's desire to keep interest rates low may prompt a rapid thaw in credit markets. Market participants said the fiscal deficit would skyrocket prices at the end of the year and could even put countries and regions such as the US at risk of hyperinflation.　　The international gold price is again to be brave under the inflation worry, late May hit 1000 dollar high point. The producers of oil and gas will obviously benefit from the rising oil prices of related stocks or opportunities. As the largest oil and gas production enterprise, PetroChina has benefited most obviously. In addition, as a substitute for petrochemical products, the cost advantage of coal chemical industry will be revealed. China's oil performance is more sensitive to oil prices, according to the Haitong Securities Research report.　　After the oil price is straightened out, the domestic refining industry will gain stable profits. In addition to good economic data, this wave of metal prices is also driven by crude oil prices.　　Market analysis that the current crude oil prices, metal prices, will continue to stimulate China's a-share market oil and non-ferrous metals and other commodity-related stocks strengthened, investors can pay due attention. Future strategy high Altitude dance careful operation every reporter Mao Jinnan this Monday a big Yang line, laid a strong market this week, Prev breakthrough 2,700 points, the highest touch to 2791.65 points, to create the new highs of the rally.　　By Friday Close, the Monday formation of the upward jump gap is still not back up, the market seems to be entering a new round of rising waves.　　However, from this week's market trend, although the new high, but the stock performance is not wonderful, banks, real estate, steel and other indicators of the "elephant Dance" more like a solo, should be few. National Securities analysts believe that the current close to the 2,700 point "highland", short-term although the market to maintain a strong, but more like aHigh altitude dance, although exciting, but the risk is very big, investors should be cautious.　　Blue-Chip Lonely "dancing" blue chip is undoubtedly the protagonist of this week, but also to promote the largest market innovation is the biggest contributor. Monday, the first weight shares of China's oil (601857, closing price 14.14 Yuan) rose 3.73%, pushing the Prev + 18.67 points.　　Financial stocks surged further in Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, and remain the benchmark stock market.　　However, throughout the organization's business route map, is already the old routine: "Two barrels of oil" when the pioneer, the main force is the choice of financial and property stocks, as well as steel stocks, and food and beverage stocks as a surprise, through the operation of the above plate, the strong pull index rose. Stock activity is significantly lower. However, from Friday, the stock activity significantly weakened, the two cities only 569 stocks rose, while the decline of the stock reached 914, the ratio of rise and fall significantly reversed. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.59% per cent this week, but only 456 shares in the two cities rose more than 4.59%, including several stock-market shares, with 504 stocks falling.　　It also shows that the upward pace of most stocks is getting harder. On the other hand, the earlier hot spots ebb, such as new energy, car, the two hot plate, performance this week is poor, showing that after a big rise, the funds involved are unwilling to forcibly pull higher.　　The ebb of the mainstream plate also deserves the attention of investors. The operation should be cautious although this week the market took out a Yang line, and left a "look very beautiful" week line jump gap.　　But from the actual income, investors feel the difficulty of making money, the loss of a large minority. Analysts say the market may not be rosy next week.　　In particular, with the opening of the IPO, the market uncertainty factor began to increase, the broad market continues to increase the difficulty of increasing, adjustment at any time may come. Hualong Securities analyst Huangchangquan that the gem has been getting closer. July may have the first gem company landing. The Board IPO may also be restarted around July, which will have an impact on the market. Investors in the operation should be cautious, control positions, the proposal to the main short-term, set a good stop. In the run-up, investors holding positions should also gradually lighten up.