Conch Profiles (000619): Anti-economic cycle configuration varieties

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The company is an anti-economic cycle of the variety of the 09 will experience high growth in the current performance of the most explosive phase of the current share price: Today's investment stocks Safety diagnostic stars: ★★★ Wang Jinxiang Industrial Securities Co., Ltd. is a variety of anti-economic cycle configuration since 1997 the company's net profit growth rate, 1998 southeast Crisis and the 2005 national macro-control occurred, the company's net profit to achieve 1397% and 158% of the rapid growth, and economic growth trajectory is opposite, we believe that mainly because of the company's performance on the price of PVC highly sensitive, whenever the economic crisis or macro-control occurs, usually accompanied by a sharp drop in PVC prices　　, and the company's product prices fall generally far less than the decline in raw materials, resulting in rapid growth of the company's performance; on the contrary, when the economy is good, generally accompanied by the occurrence of inflation, PVC prices appear to rise, the company's performance is subject to a certain degree of repression. 09 will also experience high growth in July 08 international oil prices record new highs, the same 08 three quarter is also the company's most difficult period, with the international oil price drop, PVC prices have also come down sharply, the company's operation began to appear significantly better. PVC price from 08 about 9000 Yuan/ton (including tax) the highest bit down to the current 6400 yuan/ton (including tax), the company's gross margin in 09 a quarter from the 08 9.5% to 14%, net profit also achieved a 65.1% year-on-year rapid growth, with the 09 PVC price drop,　　The rapid growth of company performance is quite clear. PVC Price trend is an important performance of the "barometer" PVC occupies the company's production costs of about 60%, so the trend of PVC prices on the company's performance plays a key role, when the price of PVC rose more than 7000 yuan/ton, the company and downstream enterprises must jointly bear the cost rise, also when the price of PVC The company is also unlikely to profit all to the downstream enterprises, therefore, when the price of PVC rose sharply, the company's performance must be squeezed, and when the price of PVC fell sharply, the company's profit space will also expand, therefore, PVC price trend is still our key concern.　　From the historical point of view, the current PVC price of more than 6,000 yuan/ton is very beneficial to the operation of the company. Find to break the performance "ceiling" effect of effective measures on the one hand, because the company has occupied more than 30% of the market share, the company does not want to market share too big, this will be too large to bear the industry risk, on the other hand, because the general steel industry technology, capital threshold is lower, the Reasonable gross profit margin to maintain market stability, the company is difficult to pass the bigIncrease the gross margin of the general profile to enhance performance, therefore, the company's performance growth is to share the industry average growth, there is a certain "ceiling" effect. To break the "ceiling" effect, the company also tried a lot of ways, including increasing the intensity of exports, large color profiles, etc., after years of cultivation, color profiles will be broken "ceiling" effect of effective measures, compared to general profiles, color profiles of relatively high threshold, the mature technology is mainly in the like conch, In the hands of a big business like Shide, at the same time, the price of color profiles higher than the general profile 30%, gross margin is also twice times the general profile, through the larger color profiles to enhance the company's comprehensive gross profit margin is feasible, the company's 08 color profile sales accounted for about 5%, the company's 09 color profile sales will be increased to 10%,　　The next 2 years will be further increased to 20%. The next phase of expansion will move to the West. The company currently produces 580,000 tons of capacity (340,000 tons of Wuhu, Ningbo 40,000, Tangshan 120,000 tons, 80,000 tons of Anglo-German, of which the color profile capacity of about 60,000 tons, the next 2 years the company plans to upgrade through the renovation, the color profile production capacity to 8.1 million tons, the proportion of sales from the current 10% Ascend to 20%.　　For future expansion of production capacity, for Eastern market companies more in the maintenance of the next phase of the plan to expand the western market, the company plans to expand in Chengdu, Sichuan, 80,000 tons of production capacity, Xinjiang Urumqi new 40,000 tons of capacity, then the company's capacity will reach 700,000 tons. Guarantee housing construction to ensure the demand for profiles have been worried about the real estate downturn will affect the utilization of the company's capacity, from the current situation, the company in the protection of housing such as shanty towns, housing and other major breakthroughs, because the plastic profile energy-saving effect is better than aluminum, and affordable housing is the government It will pay more attention to building energy-saving and other related indicators, so that steel doors and windows will be the main selection of materials, according to the government planning 3 years of investment 900 billion, we calculate will bring 70.8 million tons of steel profile demand, equivalent to an annual increase of 20.3 million tons of demand, The demand for affordable housing has largely made up for the likely decline in real estate demand in the 09.　　From the current sales volume, the company's sales volume significantly in April, we will increase the company's 09 sales from 490,000 tons to 500,000 tons (sales were basically flat), of which color profile sales from 35,000 tons to 50,000 tons. Gross margin performance than expected from the company's April operating situation, as sales began to appear volume, and color profile sales than we expect better, the company April gross profit margin to 15% or more, from the year of 09, due to the color profile sales expectations, according to our estimates,　　We expect the company's 09 gross margin to reach 12.9%, higher than our previous forecast of 10.9% levels. The investment proposal synthesizes above analysis, increases the company 09-11 year EPS to 0.46 Yuan, 0.56 yuan, 0.70 Yuan, the company is the anti-economic cycle disposition variety, the eyeThe former management is recovering from the bottom, is also the performance most explosive stage, maintains the company "the recommendation" the rating.