Consensus forecast: February trade surplus narrowed to $4.7 billion trillion

by Bao Zhe March 7, "The Vision Cup China macroeconomic February consensus", issued by the Securities Market weekly by Sina Finance Exclusive network, shows that the average value of the trade surplus in February is around 4.7 billion US dollars.　　The survey found that the February trade surplus was the highest value of 20 billion U.S. dollars, the lowest value of 5 billion U.S. dollars (trade deficit of 5 billion U.S. dollars), the expected median value of 4.7 billion U.S. dollars. Chinese Bank of China (601988.SH/3988.HK) macro analyst She Yuedong said in a telephone interview, the first half of this year, export growth is expected to gradually return to normal, and import growth relative to the pace of recovery will be relatively slow.　　In the second half of the year to see the economic recovery in Europe and the United States, Christmas and other western holiday factors may make the demand for Chinese manufacturing again increased.　　Huatai Joint Securities Macro analyst Wang Yi in an interview with reporters, said, based on the overseas (especially the United States) economic bullish, the Middle East is expected to have a limited impact on crude oil prices, import and export growth is expected to not fall in the first half, the trade surplus will narrow, individual months may be a deficit.　　Wang Yi said export growth in the first quarter of the data will remain around 25%, import growth will be close to 30% Wanguo Macro chief economist Li Huiyong in a telephone interview with reporters predicted the annual trade surplus of around 100 billion U.S. dollars. The agencies involved include BofA Merrill Lynch, Paris-France Securities, Standard Chartered Bank, Citibank, HSBC, Bank of China (601988.SH/3988.HK), ICBC (601398.SH/1398.HK), Bank of Communications (601328.SH/3328.HK ), CICC, Wanguo, China Merchants Securities (600999.SH), Bohai Securities, Hongyuan Securities (000562.SZ) and so on.