Consistent forecast: December trade surplus of $20.07 billion

by Bao Zhe January 6, 2011, "The crystal ball China macroeconomic December consensus", released by the "Securities Market weekly" by Sina Finance Exclusive network, showed a trade surplus of $20.07 billion in December 2010.　　If December's true value is expected, the trade surplus has slipped slightly from the $22.89 billion trillion in November.　　Consistent expected survey data showed that the December trade surplus was expected to be the highest value of $30.06 billion trillion, the lowest value is 10 billion U.S. dollars, the median value of 20 billion U.S. dollars. Xiang Finance Securities strategy analyst Wang Tan in a telephone interview, said that the current trend of foreign trade is the export growth rate is not catch up with imports growth.　　In this case, the December 2010 surplus will still fall.　　He said that from September 2010 onwards, the overall scale of foreign trade growth faster, but the import and export significantly differentiated, rapid import growth, export growth rate is relatively slow, so the trade surplus is falling. He also said the January trade surplus will continue to fall.　　He analyzed that, on the one hand, foreign trade activities are generally shrinking before and after the Spring Festival.　　But he also said the uncertainty is that America's recent consumption recovery is better, or to some extent offset the two-point effect.　　The macro group of Huatai Securities said in an interview with reporters that imports are a conscious and controllable variable, and that China is likely to make up for the pressure of exchange rate appreciation by pulling imports, and the Ministry of Commerce officials have repeatedly stressed that the restructuring of foreign trade should not be based on sacrificing exports, but should be driven by imports　　In their emails, they said the 2011 trade surplus would maintain a steady downward trend, at around 1500~2000 billion a year. The agencies involved include BofA Merrill Lynch, Paris-France Securities, Standard Chartered Bank, Citibank (C. NYSE), HSBC, Bank of China (601988.SH/03988.HK), ICBC (601398.SH/01398.HK) and Bank of Communications (601328). SH/03328.HK), CICC, Wanguo, China Merchants Securities (600999.SH), Hongyuan Securities (000562.SZ), Hunan Treasury securities, Huatai United Securities and so on.