Consistent forecast: February import value growth of 35.2%

by Bao Zhe March 7, "The Vision Cup China macroeconomic February consensus", published by the Securities Market weekly by Sina Financial Exclusive network, showed that the average annual GDP growth rate for February was 35.2%, which was slower than the real value of January.　　According to the survey, the annual GDP growth rate of February is 56.5%, the minimum value is 10%, and the expected median value is 35%.　　Brokerage analysts generally said that the Spring Festival shutdown is one of the reasons for the slowdown in imports year-on-year growth in February.　　Macro-source Securities (000562.SZ) macro analyst Cai in a telephone interview, said that January imports year-on-year growth than expected increase is also February import growth slowed down the reason. Tang Jianwei, senior macro analyst at Bank of Communications (601328.SH/3328.HK) Financial Research Center, said in an interview with reporters that although the Spring Festival factor led to a slowdown in imports year-on-year, commodity imports grew faster, while international market prices showed a rapid rise, Import costs are likely to rise, and domestic economic restructuring and industrial upgrading will also lead to more imports of High-tech goods technology.　　Imports are expected to continue to grow at a higher rate in February. Tang Jianwei said that in the short term international commodity prices will continue to maintain a volatile upward pattern, and domestic economic growth will not be significantly lower, so imports of agricultural products, raw materials, such as the overall size of commodities will remain upstream.　　At the same time, due to the domestic economic restructuring, the Government to promote imports to reduce the surplus and other policies continue to implement, the future imports will continue to maintain a higher year-on-year growth rate. The agencies involved include BofA Merrill Lynch, Paris-France Securities, Standard Chartered Bank, Citibank, HSBC, Bank of China (601988.SH/3988.HK), ICBC (601398.SH/1398.HK), Bank of Communications (601328.SH/3328.HK ), CICC, Wanguo, China Merchants Securities (600999.SH), Bohai Securities, Hongyuan Securities (000562.SZ) and so on.