Consistent forecast: January-September urban fixed asset investment rose 24.4%

by Bao Zhe October 15, "The crystal ball China macroeconomic September consensus", released by the "Securities Market weekly" by Sina Finance Exclusive network, shows that January-September urban fixed assets Investment average growth expectancy of 24.4%. Consistent expected survey data show that January-September urban fixed asset investment growth of the expected maximum value of 26%, the lowest value of 22%, median 24.5%. January-September's expected mean value of 24.4%, compared to January-August urban fixed asset investment growth of 24.8% real value, down 0.4%.　　If the actual value is as expected, this will be the urban fixed assets accumulated investment growth rate since February this year for seven consecutive months to maintain the downward trend.　　Sheya, a senior analyst at China Merchants Securities (600999.SH), told reporters in a telephone interview that Urban fixed asset investment will remain downward in general this year. Sheya said that on the one hand, the continued impact of housing price control policy still exists, on the other hand, energy-saving emission reduction of urban fixed assets investment growth to inhibit.　　The combination of two factors makes the growth of urban fixed assets investment will keep the overall downward trend in the year.　　Everbright Securities (601788.SH) Institute chief economist Pan Xiangdong in an interview with reporters also said that the future investment growth will be further down, but the decline is driven by the central level of investment impact.　　Pan Xiangdong explained that this is mainly due to the early state regulation and the local financing platform of the norms, new projects quickly fall back, next year's commercial real estate investment is facing greater challenges. Lianping, chief economist at Bank of Communications (601328.SH/03328.HK) Financial Research Center, said in an interview with reporters that, in addition to the real estate control, local government financing platform clean-up factors,　　The impact of the renovation of overcapacity industry is one of the reasons for the continued decline of central public investment and real estate investment growth.　　Lianping said investment growth would still fall as economic growth continued to fall and investment demand tightened and the government's regulatory policy effect continued.　　But he also said that with the promotion of the protection of residential projects and regional revitalization planning and strategic emerging industry planning, the frequent introduction of investment will be formed a certain support, the future investment is expected to maintain a high growth rate. The agencies involved include BofA Merrill Lynch, Paris-France Securities, Standard Chartered Bank, Citibank, HSBC, Bank of China (601988.SH/03988.HK), ICBC (601398.SH/01398.HK), CICC, Wanguo, Merchants Securities ( 600999.SH).