Consistent forecast: October GDP growth rate of 23.3%
Source: Internet
Author: User
KeywordsGrowth rate national total value
by Bao Zhe November 5, "The crystal ball China macroeconomic October consensus forecast", released by the Securities Market weekly by Sina Finance Exclusive network, shows that the expected average of the GDP growth rate for October is 23.3%. Consistent expected survey data show that the October GDP growth rate of the expected maximum value of 33.1%, the lowest value of 10%, the median 23.05%. The expected mean value of GDP growth in October decreased by 1.8% from the actual value of 25.1% in September. Zhangjing, a macro analyst with Huatai Securities, said in a telephone interview that the decline in export growth was mainly affected by the slowdown in the overseas economy and the short-term rise in the renminbi exchange rate. Lu Zhiming, an international economic researcher at Bank of Communications (601328.SH/03328.HK) Development Research Department, said in a telephone interview that the slowdown in export growth was related to the trend of import and export scale over the years. Lu Zhiming said, generally in the normal years, October, export scale of less than September, the average proportion of about 8-10%, and 09 fell larger, up to 16%. From this year's export growth, it will continue to follow this rule. Yan Wei, chief economist for Oriental Securities, said in a telephone interview that future export growth would continue to fall, but the decline would be narrowed. Yan Wei said that last October, the seasonally adjusted export chain growth rate increased by 0.7% compared with September, and last September export quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 2.9%. As a result, the export high base effect was weakened in October this year. Yan Wei also pointed out that processing trade import growth determines the future processing trade export growth speed. He explained that in September this year, import and processing imports of imported and processed imports year-on-year growth of 12.9%, respectively, a sharp decline in the last month, 19.4 and 11.2, which is one of the factors that export growth will gradually slow down. In addition, another export-led indicator, the new export orders for manufacturing PMI, rose only marginally by 0.6% in September from August, indicating that export growth remains weak. Based on these three factors, Yan Wei said that future export growth will continue to decline, but the decline will gradually become smaller. The agencies involved include BofA Merrill Lynch, Paris-France Securities, Standard Chartered Bank, Citibank (C. NYSE), HSBC, Bank of China (601988.SH/03988.HK), ICBC (601398.SH/01398.HK), CICC, Wanguo, Merchants Securities (600999.SH).
The content source of this page is from Internet, which doesn't represent Alibaba Cloud's opinion;
products and services mentioned on that page don't have any relationship with Alibaba Cloud. If the
content of the page makes you feel confusing, please write us an email, we will handle the problem
within 5 days after receiving your email.
If you find any instances of plagiarism from the community, please send an email to:
info-contact@alibabacloud.com
and provide relevant evidence. A staff member will contact you within 5 working days.