Consistent forecast: October PPI forecast to grow 4.5% year-on-year

by Kou Xiang November 4, "The crystal ball China macroeconomic October consensus forecast" published by the "Securities Market weekly" by Sina Finance Exclusive network shows that October PPI is expected to grow 4.5% year-on-year. A consistent forecast survey showed that the October PPI growth was expected to be a maximum of 5.5%, with a minimum value of 4.1% and a median of 4.5%. PPI rose 4.3% per cent year-on-year in September, with October PPI expected to rise 0.2% from September.　　If the actual value is the expected value, this will be the PPI after 4 months of decline and flat after the first appearance of the rise.　　Dr. Pan Xiangdong, chief economist at Everbright Securities (601788.SH), said in an interview with reporters that the surge in domestic demand brought about by steady economic growth has led to a gradual upward rise in PPI. Pan Xiangdong pointed out that the October PMI index was 54.7, up 0.9% from September, although the quarter-on-quarter growth rate slowed compared with last month, but it is still higher than the historical period. The surge in orders, inventories and prices has shown a strong recovery in domestic demand.　　The strong recovery in domestic demand has led to an increase in domestic industrial prices. In addition, Pan Xiangdong also noted that the October price index continued to rise strongly, indicating that the steady recovery of China's domestic economy has greatly accelerated the pace of resource capital goods prices. Future production costs will be more and more pressure.　　This will also push the PPI further upward. "The Fed's introduction of gradual quantitative easing at the November 3 conference will bring about more global liquidity, and with this excess liquidity, future PPI will inevitably rise."　　"Pan Xiangdong said.　　CIC Securities macro analyst Xing slightly in an interview with reporters, said the international crude oil and domestic CPI rise in the transmission caused by October domestic PPI has upward expectations. Xing slightly believes that because the market to the United States to start again credit easing is expected, 3 quarters of domestic hot money inflow is obvious, pushing up the domestic soybean and other food prices, CPI rise will be transmitted to PPI.　　In addition, the rebound in international oil prices and the continued rise in international commodity prices in the short term has boosted PPI.　　Xing said: "In the future, with the rebound in crude oil prices will lead to a rebound in PPI, coupled with the market to the Fed again to introduce credit easing expectations, December, the market will continue to weaken the dollar, strong commodity conditions, the 4-quarter PPI may rise to 5.5%." The agencies involved include BofA Merrill Lynch, French Paris Securities, Standard Chartered Bank, Citibank, HSBC, Bank of China (601988.SH/03988.HK), ICBC (601398.SH/01398.HK), CICC, Wanguo, Everbright Securities (　　601788.SH), Merchants Securities (600999.SH) and so on. End