Contradiction between technology and market: "Machine substitution" cost is higher

Abstract: Also addicted to the sci-fi film "I Robot" in the robot scene? These days, these are becoming a reality in Chinese factories, updating Chinese manufacturing. Recently there is a famous film "Interstellar Crossing", which has an interesting role in the intelligent robot, not only to distinguish

　

Also addicted to the robot scene in the sci-fi movie "I Robot"? These days, these are becoming a reality in Chinese factories, updating Chinese manufacturing.

Recently there is a famous film "Interstellar Crossing", which has an interesting role-intelligent robot, not only can distinguish human beings, objects, scenes and activities, can walk in space, deep-sea diving, and have their own ideas. In reality, such robots are made in Zhejiang.

After the 2008 international financial crisis, China's labor shortage problem is outstanding, the robot began to active in the market. Zhejiang Province as a large manufacturing province, migrant workers in the city, Low-cost advantage is no longer, at the end of 2012, Zhejiang provincial government to make a "comprehensive push machine substitution" decision-making, "machine substitution" is becoming an important hand to promote industrial transformation and upgrading.

Under this market and policy dividend, the province is setting off a "machine substitution" boom.

According to Zhejiang provincial government estimates, in more than three years after the scale of enterprises to complete the basic "machine substitution", Zhejiang province's labor productivity will rise from the current 100,000 yuan/year to 140,000 yuan/year, which means that will bring the growth of the trillion GDP.

In the face of the global economic contraction, rising labor costs, recruitment difficulties, "machine substitution" can provide a solution? What are the opportunities and challenges that the robot industry itself is facing as a new industries? What kind of experience can Zhejiang samples provide in the transformation of industrialization and urbanization in China?

Recently, the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out: "The population aging is growing, the agricultural surplus population is decreasing, the factor scale driving force is weakening, and the economic growth will depend more on the quality of human capital and technological progress." "" Emerging industries, services, small micro-enterprises more prominent role, production miniaturization, intelligence, specialization will become the new characteristics of industrial organization. These are the reasons behind the substitution of machines.

Doubling of bread production efficiency: higher labor costs before

December 11, in Hangzhou Xiasha Economic development Zone, No. 555 Silver Sea Street, covers an area of 370 acres of Hangzhou Top Yi Food Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the" "Top Benefit") Production workshop, a Taiwan Automatic fork machine, code chopping machine and other new "robot" equipment is busy operation.

Top benefit is one of Master Kang Holding company, the main production of Kang Master series of instant noodles, the annual output value of 6 billion yuan, Xiasha plant Planning 3 workshops, currently built 2, each workshop has 8 production lines.

21st century economic reporter at the scene saw that from the original raw materials into, to stir the dough, polished into a crust, cut into noodles, steamed noodles, and then after frying, dehydration, stereotypes, cooling, and then become our usual contact with the dough, loaded into the barrel, put the fork and seasoning, packaging completed, The whole process depended almost entirely on the machine.

In the pastry production of several front links, as long as one staff responsible for the normal operation of computer machines. Only the back-end of the fork, seasoning and the addition of a bucket lid, only need to operate workers, on average, a production line of 10 employees, mainly responsible for inspection, such as the individual weight of the substandard bread or leakage of the packaging bucket out.

"Although the process of instant noodles production has not changed, but rely on machine automation, production speed significantly accelerated, food safety is also more secure." Director Yang told the 21st century economic reporter.

In the so-called world-wide production of instant noodles, one of the largest workshop, there are 8 production lines, of which two production barrels, the remaining 6 production of bagged noodles, can produce 500 cakes per minute.

In the fork link, this year installed a number of fork machine, a 600,000 or so, a total of 5 units, a production line needs of workers from the original 6-8 to 1 people. Calculate down, 5 machine Although cost need 3 million yuan, but lean manpower 60 person, save 3.6 million yuan in an year.

In fact, the top benefits as early as a few years ago to do so, but also to a company in Hangzhou to buy a 1 million of the prototype, but the effect is not good, "fork is irregular, like a fishbone so about overlap." "Wang Hongwen said.

In addition, in boxing into the warehouse link, the original is through the human code after good, put on the pallet, and then transported to the warehouse by the forklift, now 8 palletizing robot undertook this task, not only can automatic code box, but also by the transmission machine automatically shipped to the intelligent warehouse.

These 8 palletizing robots, one cost about more than 1 million, 1 years of depreciation costs about 100,000, plus some operating costs, higher costs. and its size of the box model requirements are more fixed, there are some procedures are set early, if you want to adjust to buy a new program. This batch of palletizing robot can reduce manpower 18 people, the year saves 1.1 million yuan.

In workshop second, another new type of palletizing robot is also being tested, Yang points out, which can save half the cost of the first workshop.

After the palletizing task is completed, the goods need to be transported to the warehouse for storage and are now implemented through the latest intelligent stereoscopic warehouse. In this total investment 28 million of intelligent three-dimensional warehouse, as long as the computer system input the corresponding types of instant noodles, the warehouse can be the corresponding goods out, "a workshop, a trip can be loaded with 2.5 million boxes, 100 million of the product value." Yang said, from the code chop to warehousing automation, saving 6 million yuan.

The reason for spending so much money on "machine substitutions", Yang, is that "people are getting more expensive and harder to find." "The effect was that there were more than 2000 operators in 2012, and now there are only 900 operators," he said.

"Machine substitution" or consensus: large and medium-sized enterprises more welcome

"Machine substitution" to save labor costs, improve product quality in Zhejiang has become a consensus. For example, Yongkang Zhongtai Holding group introduced 12 automatic intelligent welding robot, the production line staff from 120 people to 30 people, the one-time rate of products to increase to 99%; Jiaxing's days of China Weaving Co., Ltd. rely on foreign equipment, a year to reduce the wages of more than 17 million yuan workers.

According to the arrangement, more than 36,000 industrial enterprises in Zhejiang Province strive to complete the modernization of "machine substitution" in 2017 years, and invest not less than 300 billion yuan per year.

A large number of enterprises in Zhejiang are "machine substitution". And this strategy began in 2012 at the end of the economic work conference held in Zhejiang Province, when the governor of Zhejiang Province, the current party secretary of Zhejiang Xiabaorong, Zhejiang will accelerate the promotion of industrial transformation and upgrading, the overall promotion of "machine substitution."

The essence of "machine substitution" is to upgrade the enterprise market competition and sustainable development with the technology innovation, technological innovation and management innovation which is the carrier of equipment renewal. Zhejiang Province through the letter Committee deputy director Lingyun said.

The background of this strategy is that at that time, there were 14 million workers in Zhejiang, faced with social stability, employment, social security and many other problems, "and when it became the main force of labor, few people would like to do those physical work." "Lingyun pointed out that Zhejiang's manufacturing employment is decreasing at a rate of 1 million/year."

It is reported that 2005-2012, Zhejiang Scale Industrial enterprises above the per capita labor remuneration from 14847 yuan/year to increase to 41370 yuan/year, an annual growth of 15.8%, total and growth in the forefront of the country.

In 2013, Zhejiang province formally proposed the "555 Machine substitution" promotion plan, namely the next five years to implement 5,000 projects each year, Invest 500 billion investment, promote machine substitution.

In Lingyun's view, the inevitability of "machine substitution" is to reduce production and employment, improve product quality, improve production efficiency, improve management level, optimize the local employment structure, "machine substitution for the development of equipment manufacturing industry space, promote the transformation of manufacturing mode." ”

Zhejiang Province, the commission of the research report pointed out that "machine substitution" to help significantly reduce front-line staff, optimize the structure of enterprise personnel. 61.5% of the company's front-line staff of more than 10%, of which 16.3% of the enterprises to reduce more than 30% front-line staff, 68.9% of the enterprise production costs fell by more than 5%.

Zhejiang "Machine substitution" form, mainly includes some parts of the machine substitution, the entire production line automation transformation, automated production line + industrial robot, the realization of machine equipment networking, that is, "machine networking", to achieve "plant networking" and so on.

Lingyun in the actual research found that in some bearing production lines, through industrial equipment "Internet of Things", the need for workers from 28 to 2-3, the production cycle from 9 days to 30 minutes, "the direction of the transformation and upgrading of Zhejiang is the industrial networking." ”

According to the data, in 2013, through the "machine substitution", Zhejiang Province reduced ordinary labor employment 700,000 people, January-August this year reduced 600,000 simple labor-oriented operators, "is expected to reduce the end of the year 1 million is not a problem." Lingyun said.

In Li Zhenggang view, machine substitution more important is to ensure product quality, quality promotion will bring more profit growth, 2013, Zhejiang Province Industrial enterprise profit growth of 15.2%.

Robot Industry Heat

In addition to government promotion, the urgent demand for "machine substitution" by manufacturing enterprises has promoted the development of robot industry in Zhejiang.

At present, the domestic mainstream robot companies have settled in Hangzhou, including Zhejiang Country from Robot Technology Co., Ltd., Hangzhou Zhongke New Pine Photoelectric Co., Ltd., Staubli (Hangzhou) Precision Machinery Electronics Co., Ltd., Hangzhou Kaida Robot Technology Co., Ltd, Zhejiang Jinshi Robot Manufacturing Co., Ltd., Hangzhou ke jue Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd.

Are, a part of those companies in charge of the 21st century Economic report, said the robotics industry was just beginning in Zhejiang and even across the country.

At the end of 2010, Hangzhou Xin Song Robot Automation Co., Ltd., Hangzhou, its Shenyang head office to do mechanical manufacturing applications have been twenty or thirty years of history, "probably from the middle of the last century, 90, the domestic robot market gradually up, we are in the East China layout, now probably accounted for this piece of the market share "Hangzhou Xin Song Robot Automation Co., Ltd. General manager Li Zhenggang in the 21st century Economic report reporters said.

Hangzhou is the company's main production base, due to enter the market earlier, Siasun robot at present in the domestic market to promote smooth, future consideration to Wuhan, Ningbo and other land expansion.

Hangzhou ke jue Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd. It is in this upsurge in the end of August 2011, the establishment of local enterprises. As one of the earliest research and development of automatic solder robot, the company is fully self-financing, its main product for the desktop-type automatic solder robot.

Yao Jianli, general manager of the company in 21st century, said in an interview with the Economic Report reporter, this kind of robot in 1969, there are Japanese enterprises to take the lead in the invention, now the products have been exported to Japan, Bosch, Samsung, Panasonic, three flowers, Chery and other well-known enterprises are their customers.

The third-generation product of the current main push, the 7-inch color LCD full touch control screen, "workers can learn to operate as long as 15 minutes of training." Yao Jianli said that the traditional artificial solder, a tin platform requires a skilled solder, and the use of their robot, each can operate 2-5 units, and efficiency can be increased 5 times times.

In 2013, the sales of the products of the division grew by 400% in 2012, and in 2014 it was expected to grow by 200%. Developed so quickly, Yao was established thanks to the price advantage of the product.

A survey of 120 industrial enterprises in Hangzhou has revealed that more than 94% of enterprises have turned their attention to "machine substitution".

Multinational Staubli (Hangzhou) Precision Machinery Electronics Co., Ltd., its robot division manager Zhang Zhenhui in the 21st century Economic report of the interview, said the company in the auto parts market share of about 5%-10%, solar energy in a certain area of the field occupancy of more than 97%, laser cutting can reach 30%-50%, Spraying about 3%-5%.

Despite 2008 years of entry into the Chinese market, Staubli has continued to grow well over the years, with sales reaching 60% to 70% per cent a year.

As an established multinational, Staubli current research and production mainly in Europe, the domestic market is just beginning, "The main reason is that prices, such as food handling robots, in Europe can accept 300,000/Taiwan standards, but the Chinese market may only accept more than 100,000/Taiwan price." "Zhang Zhenhui said.

He pointed out: "The Chinese market cake is quite big." In the next 10-20 years the economy will definitely shift to Asia Pacific, and we'll consider local production in the next few years, even designing new robots for the Chinese market. ”

The contradiction between technology and market

But the cost of "machine substitution" is quite high. It is reported that Zhejiang Province, the use of automation equipment manufacturers, more than 90% from abroad, not only expensive, but also need two times refit and commissioning.

In the interview, learned that the "machine substitution" of the difficulties mainly include robot production and application of two large chunks, the specific problem without the technology, talent, market and so on.

Domestic robot companies are facing the main technical problems, especially the robot joints necessary for the reducer, "at present basically all imported from abroad." Zhang Zhenhui said that the robot is an industrial chain, to have the front of the motor, servo, core reducer, the back end to keep up.

"Reducer in fact very simple, is the material, heat treatment, precision processing, but the domestic basic industries do not pass, it is difficult to get a key parts, must be imported, will be the overall cost, cycle and so have a big constraint." "Li Zhenggang said.

They unanimously said that if the domestic robot can be a breakthrough in this field one day, the price of the robot will be greatly reduced, and these aspects of technical defects will lead to industrialization problems, "mainly production volume, technology and so on, the stability of the product is not enough." ”

Even if the production of high-quality robots, later applications still make enterprises "headache", "if the new product can not find the downstream to do integrated partners, or find solutions, the robot launched to go or not use." "Zhang Zhenhui said.

The so-called integration mainly includes software, hardware, technology, such as cutting, cutting angle, speed, light is a lot of time to accumulate experience, not every automation enterprises have the ability to do.

In addition, "for staubli, high prices cause market expansion difficult, imagine, high-end use of one enterprise, low-end of another enterprise, but in fact, customers are emotional, or want to always use the same product." Zhang Zhenhui pointed out that the robot industry is not a short-term ability to do, need to accumulate for a long time.

Money is a big problem for application companies. The introduction of advanced production equipment, some hardware input to millions of dollars or even tens of thousands of dollars, and cost recovery may take 3-5 years.

Siasun Robot Automation Co., Ltd. President Qutauqui that the cost of machine substitution challenges in a pair of very prominent contradictions, that is low-end industry high-end robot applications, such as bathroom hardware (polished polished).

He pointed out that the industry's customer base is very backward production mode, the industry is very wide, the market space is very large, but very sensitive to price.

But the reality is that this aspect of the robot is far more complex than the welding machinery, "it requires the robot body waterproof, dustproof, explosion-proof, control requirements including force control, off-line programming, and the process requires surface planning, grinding and so on, very complex, resulting in very high cost." ”

In addition, the high-end technology, the first line of staff must put forward higher requirements. Respondents said that a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises themselves lack of technical departments and personnel, it is difficult to independently develop new technology, new equipment.

Talent dilemma, almost no enterprise to avoid.

In the past two or three years, the emergence of a large number of domestic robot manufacturers in Zhejiang, the government has played a significant role in it, "resulting in a stampede, easy to form irrational market behavior." "Many of the companies surveyed unanimously said.

"This requires industrial upgrading and machine substitution combined, if there is no industry upgrade, single talk machine substitution, and the original situation is not much." Li Zhenggang pointed out that in Zhejiang's historical development process, the private enterprise plays the main role, the industrial structure is relatively weak in Jiangsu, the promotion of the advanced manufacturing industry is also relatively difficult.

He encountered some companies in the actual business requirements for two years to recover costs, "because they are not enough confidence in the market, for two years after how, feel bad say." ”

Zhu Shijiang, deputy director of the Robotics Research Center at Zhejiang University, said in an interview with the 21st century economic reporter, Zhejiang Enterprises, the production of more categories of products, in turn, the demand for machinery and equipment is high, may be more than those large-scale social industrial production requirements are much higher, from this point of view, the promotion of the role of the robot will be greater.

The combination of industrial transformation

In the International Robotics Federation (IFR) report, the Chinese robot has been the international number one, in the next 3-5 years, China's robot consumption will be far ahead, in terms of per capita, China 2013 per million people have 28 robots, 2012 is 23 units/million people, South Korea has reached 396 units per million in 2012, which shows that China is quite a big gap.

However, in the actual operation process, "machine substitution" there are more concerns. A general concern in society, for example, is whether it causes large numbers of workers to lose their jobs.

Zhu Shijiang pointed out that "machine substitution" originates from the enterprise's own demand, is based on the industrial upgrading, industrial restructuring such a starting point, "not to say that a business person recruit, you do not need to replace the machine." ”

Zhang Zhenhui said that in some areas, "machine substitution" can liberate people and do more innovative content.

At present, Industrial 4.0 has become a social hotspot. But does not represent the realization of "machine substitution" entered the industry 4.0, blindly fashion I am afraid not only failed to reduce costs, improve efficiency, but faced with the risk of shuffling.

Moreover, "machine substitution" is one of the important ways of transformation, but not all, can not ignore at the innovation level through the promotion of technological content level transformation. Moreover, the current robot industry has not yet formed a scale.

Lingyun pointed out that Zhejiang province to promote the substitution of machinery mainly includes enterprises and government two levels. Enterprise level is to deepen understanding, improve the consciousness of entrepreneurs, looking for machine substitution into the mouth, active docking, to solve information asymmetry difficulties, establish mechanisms to promote the long-term machine substitution.

In response to the above mentioned many low-end enterprises, the higher the demand for machine substitutions, Zhu Shijiang said that the question could not be solved in general terms, "if one can do it very simply, the machine needs to be very expensive, at least for now, the machine is not viable at the moment, consider the balance point, Cost is one of the most important factors. ”

Lingyun said that the current one months in Zhejiang Province, a special report, "As long as you have a good project, the government to help you platform to help you promote." ”

Recently, the establishment of the robot Industry Alliance in Zhejiang Province, "in order to focus on the best quality resources, and then actively solve the industrial development, technology development, some bottlenecks, and promote the development of machine substitution industry." There is a lot of demand for machine substitution companies, but it is difficult for domestic equipment suppliers or machine manufacturers to solve these problems well. "Zhu Shijiang said.

"Research and development is one of the ways that the government has been advocating in recent years," said Liu Jinchang, a researcher at the Center for High Technology Studies in the Ministry of Science, in the 21st century Economic report. Apply some of the research results of the university to the products of the enterprise. The