Corn Mad Speculators Survey: grain storage Enterprises self-purchase

Our correspondent Yang Yi Shanghai reports that after garlic and mung beans, corn is becoming the new leader in the price rise of agricultural products. "One months, the price of corn from about 1650 yuan per ton up to the maximum of 1840 yuan, up nearly 200 tons per ton!"　　"At the end of May, the head of a large northeastern corn processing enterprise said to reporters. Corn prices have risen by as much as 33.3% since last February, according to the latest figures released by the Ministry of Agriculture on May 28.　　In the third week of May this year, the country's average corn price has exceeded 2 yuan per kilogram, up 26.9% year-on-year. The real reason for the increase in corn prices, the people interviewed by this newspaper are mostly "very complex", "very sensitive" to describe.　　One of the complicated reasons is whether there is a gap between supply and demand in the market at present, the views of the parties are very different, and the "sensitive" argument comes from the question of speculators, including some Chinese enterprises. In fact, this wave of agricultural products prices, the NDRC and the National Bureau of Statistics do not agree.　　The former think there is speculation of hot money, and the Bureau of Statistics that no hot money into the evidence. But in any case, the rise in agricultural prices, including corn, has affected social perceptions of inflation expectations.　　Penson, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the rise in agricultural prices would not directly affect the CPI, but it would play a role in fuelling inflation expectations. There are signs that the price of corn also has a downward trend in the high pressure of the NDRC.　　Some market people believe that some of the hot money shipments, within a short period of 5 days, corn prices per ton has fallen about 50 yuan.　　The trouble with the supply and demand gap? For corn prices to rise, some people think it is inadequate supply, the imbalance between supply and demand.　　But official statistics and officials have denied the claim.　　The reason for the lack of supply is that the main production areas have been cut, and national inventories have decreased. "The decline in the main production areas since last year has had a huge impact on corn prices."　　Said the head of the processing business. In fact, from last summer, Liaoning, Jilin and other areas of the continued drought began, corn production and the ensuing price increase in the news will be in the Northeast and other major areas spread.　　At that time, the reporter in Jilin was informed by local people, Jilin corn production should be more than Shansheng. "Last year corn was supposed to cut production by 15%-20%.　　"The head of the processing business believes that the location of the main production areas to reduce output in 30% or more, which has a greater impact on prices."　　Because of production cuts, and after nearly a year of acquisitions, farmers in the hands of surplus grain has been basically sold out, and new corn has not yet entered the harvest season, resulting in supply suspended. "Our factory day is 2000 tons of corn processing capacity, but now one day to collect about 80 tons of raw materials, only the processing capacity of 4%."　　said the person in charge. This claim has also been approved by the director of a grain depot in the northeast. "Cut production should be the most important reason, now farmers have little corn in hand." "In addition to cutting production, national inventories are shrinking, not as much as they say, and there is not much change in real demand and imbalances in supply and demandcondition, the price rises naturally.　　Said the head of the processing business. But official statistics show that 2009 corn production is plentiful. China's 2009 corn production was 164 million tonnes, higher than the market had previously expected, citing statistics from the national Grain and oil Information Center.　　National Grain Bureau Deputy director Zeng Liying May 24 also stated that domestic corn supply and demand basic balance, does not support domestic corn prices continue to rise sharply. "According to our monitoring, there should be no shortage of supply and demand in corn," said Ma Wenfeng, a grain analyst at Orient's agricultural consultancy. "He provided data that, as a result of several years of storage, by the end of April this year, domestic corn stocks at least 120 million tons, higher than in previous years." As of now, corn reserves are estimated at more than 40 million tons.　　On the other hand, demand is not very good at present, demand for meat is down and the farming industry is stagnant, so supply and demand are not as big as they think. He also believes that the increase in corn imports this year has also exacerbated expectations of higher corn prices. At the end of April, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's import and export data showed that Chinese companies and U.S. private exporters signed a contract to import 115,000 tonnes of U.S. corn.　　Since then, the American Grain Association has revealed that Chinese companies have ordered 250,000 tonnes to 300,000 tonnes of corn from the United States.　　It is the first time China has imported corn in 4 years, and the largest number of Chinese corn imports. "No surprises this year, corn is supposed to increase production. At present, the sown area of corn has been increasing, and has become the second largest food crop after rice.　　"Ma Wenfeng said.　　Who are the speculators behind the scenes?　　Given the basic balance between supply and demand, what is behind the rise in corn prices?　　The above-mentioned deep processing enterprises are regarded as a driving force for the rise of corn prices. The argument of those who hold this view is that, as a result of economic recovery, corn deep-processing products market improved, including starch and alcohol and other deep-processing products continued to rise, stimulating domestic corn deep-processing enterprises to improve capacity utilization; In addition, under the latest auction conditions, deep-processing enterprises are prohibited from participating in the corn auction starting May 18　　, this is also disguised as an increase in the processing of enterprises to rob Food Psychology. China's corn Network, said June 1, because of market acquisition situation is not ideal, Jilin Province, another processing enterprises to raise prices.　　So far, Jilin Province, two days ago this week, five or six companies have raised prices. The official confessed that, despite the current high raw material prices, but the price of starch is also the historical highs to the latest starch prices to calculate, enterprises can basically capital preservation. He didn't agree with the high price of the business. "Corn processing enterprises, or feed enterprises accounted for a large proportion of deep-processing is very small."　　According to his introduction, because the corn is not received, many small deep-processing enterprises have opened and stopped, large enterprises can only maintain production.　　Deep-processing Enterprises do not admit, then in the end where is the source of price increases? "There are still small portions of corn in the hands of traders, most of them in the middle-word business, and they are hoarding goods."The Grain Depot director told reporters bluntly. His story is not unreasonable. Unlike previous garlic and mung beans, maize has been the subject of a national reserve takeover in recent years.　　And the important carrier of national acquisition is the state grain storage institutions and other enterprises. From October 2008 to June 2009, a total of 35 million tonnes of corn was temporarily hoarded in the national batches, while the main locations were in the northeast.　　Large-scale, high-priced storage, on the one hand, the processing enterprises have no food can be collected, on the other hand, make most of the corn is in the hands of the national grain-storing institutions. At the end of August last year, a person in the Heilongjiang branch of Cofco had complained to reporters that successive purchases and purchases had already made the food "overflowing", while many local grain depots had also become storage sites for grain storage. "Rice, corn is the most variety."　　"At that time, only in Jilin Songyuan, more than 90% of the local grain depots are helping to store grain storage for the work." "Formerly 70%-80% of the corn in the market circulation, now this ratio in turn, 70%-80% of the Northeast corn into the library."　　"Last year, there were processing companies complaining to reporters, because of the harvest of corn, the enterprise for a period of time to stop production." In fact, to address inventories, as well as depress corn prices, starting in mid-April, the northeastern corn-producing areas entered the auction process.　　Moreover, the turnover rate has reached or nearly 100%.　　June 1 in Anhui grain wholesale trading market and its networking market held the national temporary storage Corn Auction Sales Fair, the plan to sell temporary storage of corn 984,700 tons, the actual transaction 924,500 tons, the turnover rate of 93.89%, the average price of 1679 yuan/ton. In this respect, some futures analysts said that the high turnover rate exposed the low price of corn auction, and the current port flat price spreads too big problem.　　On the other hand, the short-term market in the trade of food sources concentrated in the hands of the enterprise, the market circulation is limited, the auction has not been able to effectively promote the market trade main body low price promotion of food sources, but to increase the large trade holding food wait and see, which makes the market for the next three months The statement was further elaborated by another insider who declined to be named.　　He told reporters, as a result of the subsequent auction of deep-processing Enterprises excluded, and the current feed industry recession, demand is not so big, but each auction high turnover rate let him more and more doubt, this is the northeast of the store enterprises in the "self-purchase". "It's a big possibility that they're auctioning off their own stocks of corn by some means, and such high turnover naturally increases the market's expectations, corn prices continue to rise and corn is still in their hands to drive up prices."　　"he said.　　Until the deadline, this reporter could not contact the grain storage and other institutions to confirm this statement. On the other hand, a local private trader in the northeast told reporters that he did not participate in corn hoarding. "As far as I know, the traders around me are not hoarding goods.　　"The peers in his mouth are private traders. Compared with garlic, mung bean, corn price is bigGrowth, the impact is even greater. "The rise in corn prices is bound to drive up feed prices, and then the price of meat and eggs will rise." Then inflation may come. ”