CPI and PPI expected to grow in the second half

Intern reporter Liu Huijie, 21st century economic reporter Xiao Ming doesn't June 9, the JPMorgan Global investment conference, JPMorgan Chase, the managing director and China Securities Market chairman, said she would have 10 trillion dollars to find opportunities to invest in China. "They found that China is a safe place to invest because the Chinese economy is likely to lead the recovery.　　"she said. However, when overseas investors have such confidence in China, a series of economic indicators, such as electricity and freight, remain negative.　　June 9, our correspondent on the second half of the economic trend of Jing Ulrich conducted an interview.　　CPI, PPI or positive growth in the second half of 21st century: May consumer prices (CPI) and industrial factory price (PPI) growth will remain negative, how to see the trend? Ulrich: The CPI and PPI will become positive in the second half. Both were very high in the first half of last year. The CPI reached 8.6% last February, largely driven by rising pork prices. This year has no effect on this factor.　　So this year and last year compared to food prices, pork prices and food prices are likely to be negative. But the negative growth of prices don't worry too much. On the one hand, prices are negative, it is really related to pork prices, food prices lower, but as mentioned earlier, this year and last year, the situation is different, last year, pork prices in the fourth quarter has begun to decline, so the second half of this year, the year-on-year decline in pork prices will shrink the other At the end of last year, the growth rate of the economy in the early years compared to the previous year did have a substantial decline, resulting in a decline in demand.　　But the economy is expected to pick up in the second half.　　21st Century: How does the current rise in global commodity prices affect the PPI? Jing Ulrich: Now it seems that the second half of the year to achieve industrial products ex-factory price increase is possible. But the current global rise in commodity prices needs to be considered.　　For example, crude oil is currently 67 dollars a barrel, than the lowest value of the past increased by one times, copper from 3000 yuan/ton, rose to 5000 yuan/ton, also close to 1 time times. And the ex-factory price of industrial products rose faster, is expected to make PPI year-on-year increase in positive. As the price of commodities fell sharply in the second half of last year, and as the global economy shrank, PPI accelerated.　　But at present, considering the factor of the chain rise, the PPI may become positive in the second half.　　"21st century": Is there any possibility of stagnation in the economy? Jing Ulrich: There is no such possibility at the moment. Because economic growth is still accelerating, prices will not rise anytime soon.　　And the current rise in commodity prices is a big factor in trade speculation factors, there is no substantial economic support of the real economy.　　Economic growth is expected to accelerate by the quarter of 21st century: electricity and other indicators are still negative, can say that the economy is improving? Jing Ulrich: China's economy is indeed recovering. JPMorgan Chase June 10 held a global investment summit in Beijing, with more than 3,000 fund managers from around the world who are bullish on China, thinking that the global economy is not yet fully improved, China has been the first to revive.　　And China's stock market is even leading the global stock market recovery. As for the problem of generating electricity, although it has been negative for nearly 4 months, the growth rate has not been negative.　　The reason is that on the one hand, the industrial enterprises operating rate is still relatively low, heavy industry, the large power consumption by the larger, on the other hand, China's electricity efficiency, the use of energy efficiency has also improved.　　But because the current corporate inventory is ready to digest, we expect the next industrial production will gradually accelerate, May industrial growth is expected to be higher than April.　　21st Century: What is the forecast for two quarters of growth? Ulrich: The economy grew by 10% in the first quarter of last year, and we judged the quarter-on-quarter growth rate to accelerate in the next few quarters. At least the economic chain has bid farewell to the past low, if at the current rate, the next two, three or four quarter to achieve year-on-year 7%, 8%, 9% growth is possible.　　Therefore, the annual economic "8" no problem, this is based on the lack of improvement in exports, if the export upturn, the economy will be faster throughout the year. This year, iron ore, copper, aluminum imports accelerated, such as April iron ore imports year-on-year growth, reached 33%, copper imports increased by 148%, aluminum imports rose 2,107%, coal imports also reached 167%, even crude oil April also bid farewell to the first few months of negative imports,　　April year-on-year growth of 13.6%.　　Speed up reform and start domestic demand "21st century": what should investors pay attention to when commodity prices are rising faster and have negative effects on the economy? Ulrich: Commodity prices are rising very quickly, affecting the domestic economy, such as the middle of the industry's profits will be hit. We estimate that the oil price is near 80 dollars a barrel, and the negative impact on the economy will deepen.　　This requires investor attention. Cars and steel plates are now low in profitability and valuations are low, and we expect their profitability to improve by the end of the year.　　The Shanghai Composite index reached 3,200 points at the end of the year.　　21st Century: What impact did the financial crisis have on China's economic restructuring? Jing Ulrich: With regard to macroeconomic trends, China is not completely decoupled from the world. But China's mainland and coastal economies have decoupled.　　For example, Shanghai, Guangdong and other coastal areas of economic growth is currently 3%-5%, and the mainland's economic growth has reached double-digit, which means that the impact of the financial turmoil on the mainland economy is not big. From the promotion of China's economy, the transformation of Chinese enterprises, this is of great benefit. For years, the Chinese government has been hoping to turn the export-led economy into a domestic-demand-oriented model, which we have now found.　　At present, we should use this opportunity to speed up reform and start domestic demand. Although the current economic development is relatively good, but the trend of profitability is still relatively grim. The profit-making profits of industrial enterprises across the entire industry have fallen by about 28% per cent. Or that problem, overcapacity. In the next few months, corporate profitability can beWill get better, but it will have a lag in the economy.