Crazy 456%: The Radicals equate Shanxi fen with the second Maotai in Guizhou

Shanxi Fen Marketing policy adjustment finally have the outcome, the first quarter of Shaanxi region sales rose significantly, from a small amount of growth to more than 100 million Jiewen restaurant where there is, cowboy Shang Heng Fa chuen. The famous verse let almost all Chinese people know that the Xing Hua Cun this kind of liquor variety, but owns this brand Shanxi Fen group in the middle of the 90 not to have particularly eye-catching performance, its listed company Shanxi Fen (600809.　　SH) is also in the capital market is placid. However, a quarterly growth of 456% per cent of the net profit growth has brought the world back to the attention of Shanxi Fen, slightly more radical investors even think the company will become the liquor industry's first growth company, many institutional investors will also Shanxi Fen and Guizhou Maotai (600519.　　SH) in comparison. Marketing policy adjustment meritorious, even a very optimistic about the Shanxi Fen Securities analyst also dare not pack a ticket. "The situation in Shanxi's fen is improving, but a process is needed," the analyst told the weekly Financial news reporter.　　"In the opinion of the analyst, there are many reasons for improvement, and it is important that Shanxi Fen's product development rights are recovered." Financial weekly reporter According to survey interviews and data comb found that the adjustment of Shanxi Fen, including the right to product development of the dealer to streamline to 19, that is, the vast majority of dealers have been canceled product development rights, the dealer development of varieties from hundreds of to 36 kinds,　　The retained varieties are basically annual sales of more than 10 million yuan, the future will no longer increase the dealer development of new products varieties; The main original wine by the company headquarters production base, and no longer by the dealer independent organization production.　　Dealers can develop products, this is before the biggest disadvantage of Shanxi fen wine experts on the financial weekly reporter said, because the developer development brand, the developer brand and the company's own brand impact each other, in addition to the developer product sales price is lower, leading to the price of its products confusion. Adjustment from 2008 onwards, Shanxi Fen also suffered pains. Shanxi Fen last year to achieve business income 315 million, down nearly 50%, to achieve net profit of 28.0144 million yuan, down 78.89%.　　At that time, Shanxi Fen has begun to increase its partial fen products sales and agency prices. Shanxi Fen was publicly said that the main reason for the decline in performance is the adjustment of marketing policy.　　The negative effects of this adjustment are equally prominent in the six months. It was not until the third quarter of 2008 that the positive effects of policy adjustments began to emerge, and sales of Shanxi's fen liquor began to rebound as a result of three-quarter promotions.　　In a way, the growth of the first quarter is also the follow-up effect of the marketing policy. At the same time, the first quarter of the product price increase factor is also important. Company from product quality, brand influence, packaging upgrade the cost of upgrading and other factors, respectively, February 16 and March 16 of this year for some products two price increases, 45° ten years old ex-factory prices from 68 yuan/bottle up to 71 yuan/bottle, 48° BluePorcelain from 336 yuan/bottle rose to 388 yuan/bottle. Although the situation is good, there are still hidden concerns about the data in the subregion. Shanxi Fen's growth has been driven by sales in Shanxi Province, sales in other regions are not so stable.　　The first quarter of this year Shaanxi region's rise is very obvious, from the past a small amount of rapid rise to more than 100 million, Hainan, Guangxi and other provinces have a good growth, but in Henan and other places have declined. Shanxi local brokers said, "Shanxi people love to drink fen, rural wedding, gifts are used in this, but other regions must be a lot worse." "It is worth mentioning that the 2008-year report showed that when the marketing policy was adjusted, Shanxi Fen's sales were down about 70% per cent outside the province."　　So for Shanxi Fen, how to build a stable and efficient distribution system outside Shanxi Province is obviously more important.　　Consumption tax reform has the lowest impact at the same time, on the liquor industry as a whole bad consumption tax reform has made Shanxi fen in the same industry increasingly prominent. May 8, the State administration of taxation issued the "on strengthening tax collection and management to promote the increase in the leakage of some opinions", of which the consumption tax is mentioned: to strengthen the management of consumption tax base of liquor. This to the various liquor enterprise influence degree is very different, the industry analysis thinks to Shanxi Fen's influence relative to Wuliangye (000858). SZ), Luzhou old Cellar (000568. SZ), Mashi (600779. SH), Tuo licensing Koji wine (600702.　　SH) is much smaller. At present, liquor industry to implement 20% from the price tax rate and 0.5 yuan/kg of the amount of tax.　　Liquor industry large enterprises generally through the establishment of sales companies, will be divided into sales prices of production company ex-factory price and sales company ex-factory to different degrees to avoid consumption tax, local small wineries through a variety of forms to circumvent consumption tax. Obviously, companies with large tax avoidance are more affected. Bialle that if the current consumption tax, which is based on the profit statement, should be used to measure the tax avoidance rate, Luzhou old cellar tax avoidance is the largest, followed by Wu Liang Ye, Shanxi fen tax avoidance degree most school Shanxi Fen 2008 annual consumption tax burden (consumption tax/wine income) has reached 14.5%,　　Strengthening tax collection and management has little effect on its profitability. The Bank of China International believes that the current consumption rate of the major liquor companies for 5%~13%, it assumes that the minimum tax price of consumption tax increases to about 50% of the price of the sales company, the consumption tax rate is about 10%, the theoretical calculation of the 2008 net profit impact range from large to small order: Wuliangye, Luzhou, Wells Square, Guizhou Maotai, Shanxi Fen.　　This assumption is also the general expectation of the current market.　　The prospect is still hard to determine back to the most realistic question: Although a quarterly bulletin is very eye-catching among wine-listed companies, the persistence of high growth in Shanxi fen is still elusive. Looking back on the history of Shanxi Fen can be found that the above changes is not the first time. In the late 80, the production and sales of Fen were the first in the country, with large export volume and high wine rate.and famous for winning many prizes. However, after the 1993 raw material prices rose, the fen began to reduce prices.　　1994 Shanxi Fen has been listed successfully, and the financing of 200 million yuan expansion of the first million tons of production money, hope that by virtue of cost and technical advantages, the price of the full grab to seize the city often fen liquor at that time hope to become the common People's famous wine, but this is clearly and in the future of the The reason is self-evident. Shanxi Fen Liquor did not see the market economy under the background of the seller's market will be converted into a buyer's markets, that the ordinary wine is still in short supply.　　But at this time, Wuliangye but began to push the brand, once became the first wine. The second year, Shanxi Fen went down first, since then become the two or three line brand. Today, Fen is hoping to take the high road again.　　Listed companies mainly sell fen, bamboo wine and its series of wine, the group is responsible for the development and sale of the brand liquor such as Xing ' an, old white fen. In the product structure, Shanxi Fen will focus on the optimization of high-grade wine and sales, especially the prominent blue and white porcelain and other high-grade products. In the first quarter of this year, 48 degrees of blue and white porcelain has risen to 818 yuan, the current sales can still. However, in Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye and other brands have been quite stable in the case of how to reshape high-end brands, Shanxi Fen is obviously a long way to go.