Credit policy or will fine-tune recommended 5-year ticket

Guotai Chen Yu Jiang Su, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan's "dynamic fine-tuning of monetary policy", has raised concerns about a tightening of monetary and credit policy, and the central bank is more likely to fine-tune its credit policy.　　With the decrease of bank credit volume, the pressure of bank funds allocation will be increased, and the market structure of the bond market should be strengthened. CPI will be positive at the end of the year, according to statistics released 11th by China National Bureau of Statistics, April CPI year-on-year decline 1.5%,ppi 6.6%. The April CPI was 1.5%, slightly lower than the previous estimate of 1.4%, but higher than February 09-1.6%, making the February 09 CPI more likely to be low for the year. May 09 CPI is expected to be-1.2%, by the end of the negative positive. The April 09 PPI was 6.6%, higher than our previous 7% forecast. PPI in April, the chain of 0.5% positive growth, so that PPI growth than expected.　　PPI is expected to be the lowest point in August 09, but from the chain view, the future PPI is expected to maintain positive growth, that is, from the chain view, has entered a period of moderate inflation. Central bank policy or fine-tuning the new credit crunch in April, the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, 15th in the "2009 Lujiazui Forum" in the media interview explained, "April, the central bank in the credit policy without any adjustment." "However, on the next step toward monetary policy, Mr Zhou left room to say," according to the actual needs of China's economic development, the monetary policy of dynamic fine-tuning is OK, need to take a step to see step. Mr Zhou's speech raised concerns that the central bank's monetary and credit policies would tighten, while Xiaoling, the former central bank's deputy governor, was more indicative on the same day as a media interview, with a flood of market attention, vigilance from financial institutions, and the attention of central banks and regulators,　　Believe that the next time the credit will be more stable.　　In the face of a credit boom in the first quarter, the central bank is more likely to fine-tune credit policy, so credit growth in the next few months will likely be lower than we had expected 400 billion, but if the economic recovery remains fragile, the central bank's monetary policy of low interest rates will remain unless the economy is fundamentally turned around. Cowhide market pattern can last last April, the macro data were announced, in April credit compared to March, and CPI and PPI continued to be negative impact, the interbank bond market continued to move the overall rate of return.　　Interbank short-term interest rates across the line, the 2-year and 3-year rate of return on the decline reached 3.2 and 7.3bp respectively. With the decrease of bank credit volume, the pressure of bank funds allocation will be increased, and the market structure of the bond market should be strengthened. In this case, we recommend medium-term notes for a period of 5 years. On the one hand, the economy is at a delicate time of initial recovery, and if credit growth declines, it will lengthen the recovery of the economy, thus making debtmarket opportunities; On the other hand, the issuing of the votes of the enterprises are the bank's high-quality customers, so that the vote can withstand the risk of credit contraction, but also to hedge against the worries of the economic rebound, in addition, due to the early issuance of large votes, the yield rose, especially about 5 years about AAA and The credit premium for the same term financial debt has widened, so its current investment opportunities deserve attention.