Cross-bank: the possibility of a small year inflation or a resurgence

"Xinmin Network," The Bank of Communications released the latest research report predicts that the first half of the CPI negative growth has become a foregone conclusion, inflation will not rise again during the year.　　The report author, Bank of Communications Research senior macro analyst Tang Jianwei postdoctoral told the Xinmin network, the possibility of inflation in the year is very small, but next year, the possibility of a resurgence of inflation is increasing. Tang Jianwei that inflation worries come mainly from two aspects, one is loose monetary policy. The United States and the EU implemented a "quantitative easing" monetary policy, and according to the Western economic operation of the law, M2 growth rate is basically equal to GDP growth rate plus CPI.　　In addition, China's money supply of high growth, the price of the promotion of a year or so lag. The second is the change of pork price. The recent fall in pork prices could lead to a massive withdrawal of manpower and capital from the pig industry, and a decrease in pork supply will increase future pork prices. He cited a sharp drop in pork prices in the first half of 2006, and a year later, the price of the supply was soaring.　　The mad rise in pork prices pushed up the domestic CPI at that time.　　Tang Jianwei that in the current situation of ample liquidity, the central bank should not put interest rates too low, so as to avoid future inflation expectations, the pace of interest rate hikes will not be timely. In addition, the rise in domestic oil prices, also caused by the market may affect the CPI speculation. Industrial Bank chief economist Lu Commissar told the Xinmin Net, the oil price hike will likely increase June PPI 0.16%, CPI Rose 0.04%. Given the direct impact of the rise in oil prices on final consumer spending and the indirect impact on industrial production, the rise in oil prices will likely increase the CPI by 0.15% in the next few months of the year. (Xinmin network reporter Bu Chunyan)