Cyclical industry bubbles are accumulating

Economic observer Liu Chaojiong Cai Zhijie/Wen in the market hesitation mood, characterizing the economic upward cyclical industry emergence. The recent rally in commodities has led to strong performance in cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, steel and real estate. Throughout May, the non-ferrous metal plate overall rose nearly 10%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 5.22%, exceeding the A-share market overall gains.　　Jiangxi Copper, CICC and gold rose by the front.　　On June 4, CICC released its report that global capital is helping to create bubbles in asset prices in the Asian market. Fundamentals remain fragile June 3, a strong optimistic about Jiangxi Copper Private equity fund said, Jiangxi copper industry in the future to create high, the share price may be to 80 yuan.　　The same day Jiangxi Copper closed the price of 32.16 yuan, a new high. "At present, commodities have a good rebound, may be a record high, so the stock will be innovative."　　"The private equity said. In the futures market, the recent sharp decline in the United States dollar, driven by the Bulls to launch an offensive, Lun copper rose sharply, a breakthrough in the earlier highs of 4885 U.S. dollars, hit the first target of 5100 dollars since this year.　　In just 4 months this year, copper prices have recovered nearly 90% from earlier lows to recent highs, while domestic growth is significantly higher than in the international market, with copper rising 55% per cent domestically and London up 42% per cent in the past December.　　Suketon, director of global industrial commodities futures, Jerome Gedwin said recently that copper could reach its all-time high in the next two years. "The international market price of copper futures is likely to reach 10,000 U.S. dollars, so Jiangxi copper industry at least to 60 yuan." Another private placement said, "Gold prices may first be high, followed by other colored varieties." and Jiangxi copper industry only 300 million of the circulation plate, as long as the market does not plunge, innovative high probability.　　"However, most of those who are bullish on the nonferrous metals sector say that the current rise in copper prices is only a capital-driven rise, and real industrial demand, especially international demand." The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Department of Raw materials industry Inspector Yinsong said that in the second half of the year, non-ferrous metal prices plummeted, prices fell sharply, the entire industry loss, large area production, domestic demand significantly reduced, almost half of the enterprises are in production.　　The volume of non-ferrous exports also decreased significantly, by 80% in December.　　In fact, China's stockpiling and China's money-driven rise are the main factors underpinning copper prices, not only digesting excess copper, but also reviving China's economy faster than the world's, leading to a rapid rise in commodity prices.　　Copper's supply glut from last year to this year's supply is also a reflection of the global demand for copper, which will be the main pressure on future upside.　　Asset Bubbles again?　　But such fears have not hindered the soaring of non-ferrous-metal stocks.　　Led by Non-ferrous Metals, the whole cyclical industry has become the main market, shipping, real estate, steel has risen, the market to reproduce the "28" phenomenon. Major institutionsbegan to recommend cyclical industry. The Wanguo study said China contributed to the rise of the BDI (Baltic Dry Bulk Index). June 2 closed 4,061 points, since the beginning of December 2008, the lower part of the 510% rise, 125% since the beginning of May.　　China Ocean, Cosco Shipping becomes the new favorite of institutions. and iron and steel stocks in the early June week of the collective emergence of the new record of the rebound.　　Everbright Securities said in a report recommending Angang shares that the price of steel continued to rise, driven by currency expectations and downstream demand. "Cyclical industry will take turns to rise, the next will be the brokerage, real estate, such as the growth of the industry is not obvious." In the cyclical industry driven, there will be the explosion of asset prices, most will be innovative high.　　A public offering fund manager said. "Loose monetary policy is an environmental factor that has led to a cyclical rise in the industry, but there is a growing debate over whether monetary policy should shift to a more heated argument, and the central bank will not raise interest rates and loose monetary policy will continue until the real economy is visibly warmed up." "The private equity said.