Dangdang's next step: Looking for "Godfather"

"It's just as easy to play with the U.S. market as it is to sell dumplings," said a recent Wall Street investor on Weibo. This is indeed the case, the beginning of the year to the present, almost all of the shares have found the secret to enhance the price of the weapon, in the only product will be driven by the overall positive market, and the general stock in most of the way in the red.

The company's performance is the fundamental factor that affects the stock price, but many times it is difficult to make a correct prediction of the company's ups and downs, and the hard work of the analyst can not reach inside information or internal operation. Of course, the U.S. stock market is not like a shares as an open gambling field, some good rules of the system set up, but again strict system norms, it is difficult to prevent some of the self-guidance of the shares.

Last night, Dangdang released its second quarter of 2013 earnings, many such as "Dangdang Q2 continued reverse attack", "loss of rapid narrowing, department store rapid development" of the PR manuscript a diarrhea, in the Dangdang still loss of the case, some PR manuscript written "Dangdang profitability continued to strengthen" the words, Pugo thought of 2013q1 earnings after the launch of the large-scale public relations activities, then declared that "Dangdang is expected to achieve profitability in the second quarter" ...

Pugo not when Black, Dangdang had because Pugo based on its earnings data written analysis of the article and exert the right, this led to the blow to the road of Dangdang. Recently a friend earnestly advised me that Dangdang is now weak, and Pugo is always playing strong weak, and then continue to criticize Dangdang is not enough atmosphere. Thinking repeatedly, Pugo feel really should abandon the hatchet, to the weak Dangdang should have a little compassion, as this article spit the nature of the article for the last time.

Pugo in the previous published article on Dangdang has several evaluations, that Dangdang transformation difficult, missed open platform opportunity, Dangdang users lost, competitive decline, is still the view:

The first is that Dangdang is difficult to get rid of "sell book Lang" image. This involves the positioning of the problem, consumers sell books when they think of Dangdang, buy other categories it is difficult to associate to Dangdang, although Dangdang external publicity has been successful from the online bookstore to the integrated shopping mall change, but the result is not true, The results show that: 2013Q2 Media products (books and audio-visual) revenue of 154 million U.S. dollars, other general products for 79 million U.S. dollars.

Second, Dangdang's open platform has no future. Pugo wrote the first article on the Open platform (reply number "39" can be viewed), which refers to the status of the open platform is "the cat eats meat, Beijing east to drink soup, other gnaw bones." For itself in the days of the cat and QQ online shopping Dangdang, its flow, warehousing logistics capacity, payment means, technical strength are very poor, and there is no money, it is the possibility of a good open platform is almost zero. 2013Q2 its open platform for the gmv of 788 million yuan, and the real cat and jingdong ratio is too far away; with the September after Suning exerting open platform, Dangdang will be more embarrassed, because the quality of businesses do not have the energy to care about a weak platform.

The third is that Dangdang attraction drops, the user is losing. Pugo used to be Dangdang active users, because the site experience is poor, because the price has no advantage, because the distribution link is very tangled, Pugo now almost completely give up Dangdang. Ask relatives and friends around, and I have the same people are indeed quite a lot. Dangdang's earnings showed that 2013Q2 's active users were 7.6 million, but orders were 15 million, averaging less than two per person. Except QQ online shopping and cat data, Dangdang itself platform users and orders more bleak. Dangdang claims that its users are more high-end than the general Web site, but Dangdang does not provide high quality services to the so-called high-end people, such as Pugo "high-end users" a lot of loss.

In addition, at the mobile end level, Dangdang is one of the earliest distribution of electric business enterprises, but the current Dangdang mobile end of the sales accounted for a very low, can not be its lifting the concept of stock prices, its sizzling "tail goods", in addition to show their lack of moral integrity, in fact can not give themselves how much performance As for Dangdang claims to use technical ability to improve efficiency, with personalized recommendations to promote sales, which is even more ripped, understand the technology of the big to Dangdang technology a rating it!

Pugo six months ago, although not optimistic Dangdang, but that its share price is indeed underestimated, by May, Dangdang's share price and market value has been significantly increased, Pukoyian think it has room for improvement; By now, Dangdang's share price between 9-12 dollars, the corresponding market value of 71 billion dollars, The whole has returned to high normal. Dangdang wants to return to its 16 dollar price, which is hard to convince: its revenue growth slows and other new businesses have no future. Dangdang, if you still want to survive in China's brutal electric business environment, to seek potential strategic investment or acquisition is more and more realistic way out.

Dangdang Petty style makes it gradually in the Chinese electric business pattern is marginalized, now has to find "Godfather" stage, 2013q1 since a series of PR action is a lot of potential "godfather" to see. Dangdang the only gratified is more than 10 years of painstaking accumulation of a well-known, but Dangdang lack of money, lack of logistics warehousing capacity, lack of technical strength, these need "Godfather" help. Strategic investment is a more acceptable option from the perspective of Guoqing and Yu. Of course, now the initiative is not Dangdang, the more time to push back, Dangdang's value is smaller.

The industry has passed Dangdang and a larger company in talk about being invested or acquired news, anyway, bless Dangdang! Pugo later don't criticize Dangdang, let us all together to cherish and support Dangdang this weak bar! Finish）

[Huang (Pugo) is the research director of product network, Internet industry analyst, micro-credit public number "Universal Society" (Micro-signal: puji-she), reproduced articles please attach Pugo micro-letter public number, thank you! ]