Data show China's foreign trade has been determined to rebound growth of more than 10%

Sun Jianfang recent months of data show that China's foreign trade has been determined to rebound. Who is buying "made in China" when the international economy remains volatile? What are the changes in China's foreign trade pattern?　　We listen to the voices of practitioners and investigators in the hope of finding answers in certainty and uncertainty. Editor "The first two months of this year, foreign trade and import and export than we expected, big business orders grew 15%, Small business orders grew 10%, this is a real recovery."　　When asked about the foreign trade situation in Dongguan this year, Dongguan deputy Mayor Jiangling replied.　　This is not only the case of Dongguan, securities research reflects the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta is also generally the situation of continuous recovery of foreign trade, before this, the General administration of customs published data also verified the authenticity of this recovery.　　Still, officials remain cautious about the growth of foreign trade throughout the year, and investment banks are much more sanguine.　　Real recovery in the 2008 financial crisis, the export-oriented Guangdong province of Dongguan suffered a heavy blow, the past 30 years, Dongguan economic growth rate (GDP) in 20%, but 2009 years ago in the last few quarters of Dongguan GDP drop to negative. Foreign trade was created, and led to economic decline is the Pearl River Delta and the general phenomenon of the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong vice Governor Wanqingliang introduced, from November 2008 to the end of 2009, Guangdong Foreign Trade and import and export has been 12 consecutive months of negative growth, including January 2009 down 31.1%.　　In Suzhou Industrial Park, last January year-on-year decline of 49%. By the third quarter of 2009, China's coastal foreign trade began to stabilise, Wanqingliang introduced, from November 2009 onwards, Guangdong Foreign trade began to reverse the continued decline in the momentum of the growth of the track, by the end of 2009, the annual import and export decline narrowed to 10.8%.　　In January-February this year, Guangdong's foreign trade continued to maintain the growth trend, Guangdong Province Foreign Trade Department deputy director Wu told this newspaper, the January-February Guangdong Import and export reached 48.8 billion, compared with the same period last year nearly 33%, is a sharp rebound. The continuous growth of foreign trade in the Yangtze River Delta region has also been confirmed, August 2009, Citic Securities to the Yangtze River Delta Foreign Trade Enterprises conducted a survey, when they saw the general increase in enterprise orders, especially the demand for mechanical and electrical products increased the fact.　　March 2010, Citic Securities again to the Yangtze River Delta area, the research target of Zhejiang Province, Ningbo Export-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises, Jiangsu Private enterprises and industrial park Enterprises, the industry covers machinery, textile, electromechanical, chemical and small commodity processing fields. According to Jianfang, chief economist of Citic Securities, surveyed enterprises generally reflect the continued growth of foreign trade demand.　　Enterprises from the second half of 2009 began to increase the order began significantly, especially the long single recovery, now some enterprises orders to the June 2010 or so, capacity utilization reached about 80%, especially in some industrial parks in January 2010 exports year-on-year growth of 93%. The continued recovery of foreign trade is verified by the data of the general administration of Customs and exports of China in February 2010It grew by 45.2% over the same period, and the value of imports and exports increased by 44.8% in January-February over a year earlier, more than most investment banks expected. For the future, Zhou Binglin Securities macro Analyst is more optimistic, he pointed out in the report, "After March, China will usher in a continuous growth of the same chain, when the market for export recovery is expected to be more consistent, some out of context of the analysis of empty exports can not find a realistic basis."　　"The number one problem is the rising cost of foreign trade in the continued recovery, but whether the government managers, or enterprises themselves are still suspicious." "We are still more cautious about this year's foreign trade situation in general.　　Jiangling, vice mayor of Dongguan, said he thinks the enterprise faces three big problems this year: one is that the problem of labor is still there; second, with the price of raw materials, the cost of enterprises will increase; Third, the export of enterprises will face more international trade friction. Employment difficulties in the CITIC Securities research also has feedback, but the enterprise feedback came up with another message is that the human cost accounting for about 20% of the total cost of enterprises, at present, companies can raise wages, or the workshop moved to the Midwest to solve.　　Jiangling also suggested that enterprises in the future should be more through the adjustment of industrial structure to digest human costs.　　By contrast, the rising cost of raw material prices is the biggest problem facing companies. "At present, the biggest problem is the cost of production and operation, such as rising labor costs, raw material prices rise, will further depress the profit margins of enterprises." Jiangling said, "We are also thinking of a lot of ways, hope to promote enterprises to explore emerging markets, to do more business, to more digest its costs." "Citic Securities research also got the same message," as the economic crisis resumed, the price of raw materials increased substantially, enterprises generally reflect their loss of commodity price trend, difficult to grasp the stock cycle of raw material prices, corporate profitability there is uncertainty. "The third uncertainty is the issue of trade friction, before the Ministry of Commerce Statistics, the 2009 foreign trade in China to start 116 cases, the number and amount of year-on-year increase."　　As for the amount of trade friction in 2010, investment banks are now being asked to continue to increase, but most of the companies surveyed reflect that the current trade friction has not yet posed a threat and impact on enterprises. Compared to trade frictions, the exchange rate needs to be more realistic, Citic Securities found that at present, most of the company's net profit is below 10%, individual enterprises below 3%.　　Once the renminbi appreciates, the lack of pricing power of the enterprise profit margins will shrink a lot, and even losses, so now some companies are increasing imports to resist the risk of currency fluctuations.　　China's foreign trade will continue to grow in the future, as demand from outside is still booming. "Although the January-February export quarter growth rate is lower than the second half of last year, but February is higher than January, March exports can rebound steadily." Xiaohui, a macro analyst at National Gold Securities, said he judged the March export growth of 33%, with the forecast of 20.2%, while CICC looked up to 35%. For the whole year foreign trade trends, whether the official, or investment bank is believed that the year-on-year growth will be "before the high and low", "from the current point of view, we judge the overall growth of imports and exports is high after the low."　　"Guangdong Foreign Trade department deputy director Wu said, the National Gold Securities macro-analyst Xiaohui and Wanguo Li Huiyong also agreed that this year's exports will appear" before the high stability "or" before the low "pattern.　　The trend of foreign trade is consistent, but does not mean that the market can agree on the growth rate of foreign trade, in 2010 the growth rate of foreign trade, the official and investment bank views are divided, the official relatively cautious, and investment banks are optimistic. In February this year, the Ministry of Commerce spokesman Yao Jian said at a news conference that the current foreign trade situation has continued since last July's low wandering pattern, far from the financial crisis before the scale and level. It is understood that the Ministry of Commerce earlier this year to increase foreign trade growth and economic growth rate of the same, are 8%, followed by the development of the situation to 10%. "We expect growth of around 10% this year, but the situation may be better than this," Jiangling told the newspaper. "In contrast, investment banks are much more optimistic, and they think export growth is mainly about external demand." CITIC Securities macro team found that China's exports and the world's economic growth has a positive correlation, the global economic growth of 1%, China's exports will increase by 6.5%, and the current OECD Index index has been rising for 10 consecutive months, China's G3 export countries-the United States,　　PMI in the eurozone and Japan continued to rise, with CITIC Securities predicting that exports could reach $60 billion trillion in January 2010, an increase of about 15% per cent over the year. But more brokerages expect more than 15%, such as the National Gold securities that the annual foreign trade growth rate of 15%-20%. SYWG expects annual export growth of 21.9%. However, due to official sentiment, such as Guotai macro analyst Wang said that the company at first more optimistic, then cut the forecast, but it is estimated that exports will be more than 20% this year.