Delivery: After two quarters may raise interest rate

The report expected that the reserve ratio could be increased by 0.5%-1% per cent during the year, and the interest rate would be slightly higher 27~54 a basis Li Cao Jinling recently, the Bank of Communications Finance Research Center released the 2010 China Macroeconomic Financial outlook. According to the bank, in 2010, as economic growth continued to rebound, rising price pressures and international capital inflows accelerated, monetary policy is expected to gradually move steadily from the first half of 2010 onwards.　　In this process, the open market operation, the credit policy, the interest rate and the reserve ratio will show the directional change. The bank said that with the increase of the reserve requirement ratio for January 12 this year, monetary policy will enter a gradual and steady phase.　　The main reason was higher economic growth in the 12th quarter, a marked rise in CPI in the first half and a possible acceleration in international capital inflows. "But given the uncertainties surrounding the recovery of the world economy, the continuing need to look further at domestic private investment, and the large demand for follow-on funding for newly started projects last year, monetary policy will not tighten sharply," he said. Past experience in monetary policy has also shown that monetary policy is often a gradual process from loose to tight, while the transition from tight to loose is more rapid.　　"Lianping, chief economist at the bank, said.　　Quantitative tools first of all, in terms of monetary policy instruments, the Bank believes that the number-type tool will play a major role and be applied in the first place, and that the open market operation and the Credit window guide remain the main means. In particular, in the 2010, open market operation will play an important role in guiding financial institutions to reasonably put credit, adjust capital supply and demand, and hedge foreign exchange accounts. 2010 Open market operation will be biased towards the net return of funds, increase recovery efforts, the period of repurchase and the central vote will be elongated.　　The regulatory authorities will adopt window guidance, strengthen supervision, risk-prompting and other means to moderately control credit growth and focus on optimizing structure and controlling risk.　　However, the bank believes that the statutory deposit reserve ratio may be slightly higher in the year. Lianping pointed out that as an important means of regulating liquidity, the current increase in statutory reserve reserve ratio will mainly refer to the growth of money supply.　　The liquidity of the banking system and foreign exchange reserve ratio may continue to increase by 0.5%-1% per cent during the year. "This is mainly due to the increase in foreign capital inflows and the likely acceleration of asset prices as a result of appreciation of the renminbi, higher interest rates and better asset markets." But given that the reserve ratio is already at a high level, the likelihood of a big hike is slim.　　　　"Lianping said.　　Interest rate slightly up 1~2 but for the application of the price-type tool, the bank believes that the 2010-year quarter is not the most favorable time to raise interest rates, the deposit and loan benchmark interest rate remains unchanged.　However, the report pointed out that the 2010 two quarter after the rapid rise in CPI, asset prices are likely to increase too large, the Federal Reserve is expected to start to raise interest rates (or increase the prospect of more clear), domestic interest rates are slightly up 1~2 times, 27~54 a basis for the possibility.　In addition, the report predicts that international liquidity will remain plentiful for at least the first half of the year, as China's economic growth continues, and with expectations of a long-term appreciation of the renminbi, the flow of foreign capital into China remains unabated. Therefore, China's trade, capital account surplus balance of payments situation will continue, if not to consider the 2010 foreign investment factors, the end of the year is expected to exceed 2.8 trillion U.S. dollars, remains the world's largest foreign exchange reserves.