Delivery: February export growth will obviously fall

"Financial network," reporter Pan Ying February 14, the Bank of Communications released the latest report that January China's import and export year-on-year growth exceeded expectations, the trade surplus narrowed sharply.　　However, exports are expected to fall in February year-on-year growth will be significantly lower, while imports of year-on-year growth may also fall, but will remain relatively high, the trade surplus rebounded to about 10 billion U.S. dollars.　　The General administration of customs 14th released the latest data show that January, China exports 150.73 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 37.7%, the chain down 2.2%; imports 144.28 billion U.S. dollars, year-on-year growth of 51%, chain growth 2.2%, the trade surplus of 6.45 billion U.S. dollars, a sharp decline of 53.5%. Author of the report the Bank of Communications Finance Research Center Lu Zhiming said that the reason for the sharp rebound in export growth in January, in addition to the lower base last year, mainly based on the traditional developed countries such as Europe and the United States, especially the U.S. economic recovery has improved, and exports to emerging markets have increased.　　But these two factors will fade in the future. "At a time when emerging market countries are generally entering the stage of high inflationary pressures and accelerating external capital inflows, higher inflationary pressures will lead to tighter monetary policy, while the acceleration of external capital inflows will boost the currencies of emerging markets, which would be detrimental to China's exports." At the same time, while the U.S. and Germany and France have a better economic recovery, the eurozone as a whole and Japan's economic recovery is still at a bottoming stage. In addition, Europe and the United States and Japan and China trade friction intensifies and the Spring festival holiday production shutdown, the future of China's exports year-on-year growth will have a significant decline.　　"Lu Zhiming said. On the import front, he said that the year-on-year increase in imports in February, though likely to fall, will remain relatively high. One is from the import demand brought about by domestic economic growth, the rebound in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2010 showed a stronger endogenous dynamism in economic growth and continued strong import demand, while domestic commodity imports continued to grow at a faster pace in terms of international import costs, while international commodity prices continued to record new highs, as at the end of January, rj/ CRB Index shocks upward to 341.42, the overall import cost will remain high; third, the government actively uses the import growth to reduce the trade surplus, the signing of large-scale purchase contract with the developed countries, will improve the Chinese High-tech and electromechanical goods import scale; The four is that the international short-term capital inflow expected by the appreciation of RMB will still push up the import scale under the current account.　　。 As export growth continues to fall below import growth, the bank's full-year trade surplus is expected to fall from $183.1 billion trillion last year to around $150 billion trillion, while the monthly trade surplus will fall from an average of more than $15 billion a month to around $12 billion trillion.　　In view of February for the annual foreign trade off-season, the Spring Festival long holiday business shutdown may lead to a lower trade surplus, but relative to the January rebound, is expected to trade surplus in February may be around 10 billion U.S. dollars. (Stock market Weekly feeds)