Summary: Check the latest quotes Beijing time July 22 Morning news, Deutsche Bank released a study today, the Good Future (NYSE:XRS) of the stock rating to maintain the same, the target price of 32 U.S. dollars. The following is a summary of the report: Fiscal year 2015 first quarter: Check the latest quotes
On the morning of July 22, Beijing time, Deutsche Bank released its research report today, keeping the NYSE:XRS stock rating at "buy" unchanged at a target price of 32 dollars.
The following is a summary of the contents of the report:
Fiscal year 2015 first quarter: performance exceeded expectations;
-First quarter performance highlights: Higher profit margins make performance exceed expectations
Good for the next 2015 fiscal year, the first quarter revenue of 89 million U.S. dollars (up 45%), in line with Deutsche Bank analysts expected, compared to the company's expected range of the upper limit of 1%, compared to Wall Street analyst's average forecast is 2% higher. Not according to General accounting standards in the United States, a good future in the first quarter of the U.S. depository receipts for the 0.22 U.S. dollars, compared to Deutsche Bank analysts and Wall Street analysts, the average forecast of 0.18 dollars higher than 20%.
A good future first quarter gross margin of 53.2%, respectively, compared to Deutsche Bank analysts and Wall Street analyst average expected higher than 5.2 and 3.2%. We believe that this is mainly due to: 1 utilization rate improvement; 2 continued to shift from one-to-one courses to higher-margin small classes, which accounted for 23% of the total revenue in the first quarter of the future, compared with 29% in the first quarter of the 2014 fiscal year and 3 per cent in May. Saturday.
The operating profit margin for the first quarter is 15.4%, up 4.5% from 10.9% in the same period last year, compared with the 11.8% per cent expected by analysts at Deutsche Bank and 11.5% and 3.6 of Wall Street analysts.
-Student enrolment growth is the main driver of growth:
The main reason for the good future revenue growth was the 45% per cent year-on-year increase in student enrolment in the first quarter, which was driven by small-class classes. At the same time, however, the average price of the course was flat, as the increase in small-class classes (up 8.4% per cent) was offset by the growth in online revenue contributions. Despite the strong pricing power of small-class classes, executives still expect the average price to fall slightly in the next few quarters, as online businesses grow faster and one-on-one courses are reduced further.
In addition, business continued to grow rapidly in cities outside Beijing and Shanghai in the first quarter, up more than 100% per cent year-on-year.
-The second-quarter performance outlook for fiscal year 2015 was not included in the negative calendar shift; We expect further increases in profitability:
Good future management expects revenue to grow 31% to 34% year-on-year in the second quarter of fiscal year 2015, below Wall Street analysts ' average year-on-year growth of 37% and Deutsche Bank analysts ' expected year-on-year growth of 38%. This seemingly weak revenue outlook is mainly due to: 1 The structural growth of a pair of courses is slowing down, with the company expected to grow at a lower rate of 10% to 19% in the future, while the year-on-year growth of small classes will still reach 40%; 2) 2015 The second quarter of the fiscal year will be affected by unfavourable seasonal factors ( The belated Chinese Lunar New Year holiday has benefited 3.4 million US dollars in the second quarter of fiscal year 2014.
We expect that Beijing's policy changes for the English test will not have a significant impact on the future (only 15% to 20% of Beijing's revenues) because of its strengths in smaller RICO subjects. In addition, we expect that a shift in the portfolio of good future business towards a core small-margin business could further increase its profit margins.
-Preemptive mobility and online strategy:
A good future will be to rename its online education website from "eduu.com" to "Jiazhangbang" (parent help), which will be consistent with its mobile application. Although we believe that the primary and secondary school tutoring business is relatively vulnerable to online competition, the good future has always been a pre-emptive strategic investment in the online and technical fields.
-Maintain a "buy" rating and a target price of USD 32:
Despite the modest revenue outlook, we are still revising the 2015 fiscal year against a good future EBIT (pre-tax profit) margin of the US general accounting standards by 1% to 22.8%, and not to be revised by 0.1% to 22.3% per cent of the US GAAP net profit margin. We set the target price for the good future stock at 1 time times the peg value (the market surplus growth rate), and the 2014 to 2016 profit compound annual growth rate of 29%. We will maintain a good future stock rating in the "buy" unchanged.
Main risks: Increased competition and adverse regulatory policy changes. (Tangfeng)