Developers do not bad money to help push house prices next year development credit increase will slow down

The 2010 real estate market regulation has become increasingly clear, although next year the government will accelerate the withdrawal of economic stimulus policy is difficult to guess, but industry experts generally believe that the tightening signal has been more obvious, next year, the bank will be the real estate development loans to the strict governance. Gao Shanwen Securities chief economist, in the 2010 Investment strategy report, "Sheng extremely difficult to follow" four words to describe the real estate market next year. He thought, the real estate industry's serious froth, has already brought the pressure to the government, but under the economic recovery, the massive capital returns to the real economy, the capital face also will cause the housing industry pressure.　　If inflation rises too fast in the first half of next year, it may force monetary policy to accelerate, and the bursting of the bubble is only a matter of time. Policy signal: Increase the implementation of differentiated credit policies according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, this January-November, real estate development enterprises source of funds for the year 4.817 trillion, an increase of 44.2%, domestic loans 899.4 billion yuan, growth of 40.2%.　　In addition, personal mortgage loans exceed $700 billion. "Developers have the best activity in history, but also indirectly push up land and house prices, and the government's signal to curb house prices is bound to slow down the growth of credit growth and possibly tighten the volume."　　A Northern brokerage Bank analyst told the Huaxia Times reporter. Huang Yu, executive vice president of China Index Research Institute, told the Chinese Times reporter that the activity of real estate business depends mainly on bank credit, sales and other financing channels three.　　Look from the market situation, next year sales situation still has a good expectation, the credit fine-tuning has little influence on the activity of the real estate business. King Wenjun, an industrial analyst at the capital, believes that the "punitive interest rate" of individual housing mortgage loans will play a more significant role in curbing house prices.　　In order to boost investment and increase the supply of commercial housing, the government will not put the development loan too tightly.　　Guo, director of China Banking Research Center at the University of Finance and Economics, said: Curb house prices, on the one hand, the bank's credit structure to adjust, on the other hand to pay more attention to the loan after the fund management, banks need to have measures to monitor the development of loans for developers, used in the building, instead of buying the ground, so as to increase effective supply. China Merchants Bank related personage also to "Huaxia Times" reporter, the bank to the real estate industry's monetary contraction probably will be reflected next year. Now prices are too high, people's money is on the mortgage, lack of consumer confidence, violating the government's intention to stimulate consumption.　　However, the possibility of braking is very small, credit contraction should be phased step-by-step. Refinancing pressure: or restricting the size of bank development loans this year, in order to meet the demand for economic growth, banks have been to the market to put in the volume of credit, the end of the three-quarter capital rate decline has been very obvious.　　In addition to the currently completed refinancing of Minsheng Bank and Pudong Hair Bank, basically, all listed banks will have a certain degree of refinancing requirements next year. "The refinancing pressures of banks themselves will also control the size of lending and the structure of lending." According toThe government ' has the pressure ' principle, the real estate industry is at least not next year to ' protect ' the industry.　　"The banking industry analyst said. And days congenial researcher Wang Yifeng from the activity angle analysis, thought next year activity is abundant, to the bank will be a suitable refinancing window.　　Next year about 7.5 trillion of the credit scale has basically been the tone, mainly the loan structure adjustment.　　Shang, Chairman of Bank of China, also said to the media: "Structural adjustment" will be the important task of the bank next year, by adjusting the asset structure to save costs and ease capital pressure.　　Interest rate policy: the early impact of the real estate industry late at the end of next year's increase in expectations more and more obvious, is bound to increase the real estate business capital use capital, but industry experts have said that the interest rate hike in the early days of the real estate industry will not be too big. King Wenjun said: "The interest rate hike is unlikely to toss, and the current lending rate is too low, real estate business loans can sometimes get a discount on interest rates."　　The policy impact of early interest rate hikes will not be obvious.　　Gao Shanwen speculated that next year it would probably raise interest rates in February, not more than two times a year. And developers insiders also admitted that this year has won a large amount of credit to the bank, the short-term activities of the pressure will not constitute a threat.　　At the same time, based on policy stability, the government will not shrink credit on a large scale. However, industry scholars said that the policy fine-tuning, of course, will not have serious impact on the leading enterprises, but the small and medium-sized real estate enterprises will still have a more obvious role.