Developers shrink front housing supply will slow

Under the influence of a series of regulation policies, the real estate developers ' capital chain will face the severe test, the developers ' expectation for the development of the industry is becoming cautious, and the radical land-taking strategy and the investment development strategy have changed.　　Industry forecasts, the future real estate development investment growth, new start area growth rate will decline, so that the housing supply growth slowdown.　　Developers cautiously take the "history of the most stringent" real estate regulation policy, some developers said that the market outlook is uncertain, the capital chain of tension so that they slowed the pace of expansion, the purchase of land will be more cautious. As of the end of the first quarter, the amount of money in the hands of listed housing companies is about 180 billion yuan, but analysts pointed out that most of the housing companies are currently in the "defense of money but the expansion of the lack of money" situation, in the credit has been tightened, the future real estate business "money" is not optimistic, in the current market environment,　　Many developers will abandon radical development strategies.　　Zhongyuan Securities statistics show that in the last week of April, the national homestead turnover compared to 2009 years of Sell-off turnover plummeted 81%, a few of the first-tier city homestead deal, second-tier city homestead stream rate as high as 42%.　　The developer's caution is not without reason, in addition to the Ministry of Lands prior to the land price payment progress accelerated, the CBRC on April 23 expressly put forward to the development of loans and land reserve loans, "three loans, three hooks" principle. Industry insiders pointed out that this will lead to a large number of irregular developers out of the land market, some of the more radical developers will also be able to converge.　　In addition, more real estate chambers of commerce to avoid the relatively large regulatory impact of the first-tier cities, in turn to two or three-tier cities for the future development of the center of gravity.　　CICC analyst Bai that the CBRC launched the "three-hook" policy to standardize the project level of credit use, the test of the developer's funds operating capacity, will prolong the release of supply time.　　Supply growth will slow apart from financial pressure, the sharp drop in sales caused by the policy will also slow down the investment of developers and reduce the progress of resuming.　　Southwest Securities analyst Tri Shouhong that the new start plan will be reflected in the second half, from the 2008 situation, the new start area adjustment, will lag sales for half a year, the expected two-quarter sales decline will affect developers in the second half of the start plan, which may be more evident in the four quarter.　　Wind data show that 2008 new construction area grew only 3%, 2009 New Start is a 8 consecutive month of negative growth.　　Guo Xin Securities analyst Fontim pointed out that the new start area to reduce the industry accumulated 100 million square meters of supply gap in the short term difficult to back up, which is caused by the market sales hot, inventory can not be timely back up the reasons, but also some cities in the rapid rise in prices of important background. Fontim said that the increase in supply is a long-term goal, because from land transfer to start to form an effective market supply of engineering time lag, so that the real estate industry supply in a short period of time difficult to upgrade. This regulation changed the developer's expectations for the future, developers more cautious, for fearBlindly reverse the expansion of the city and repeat the 2008 mistakes. Fontim that the future housing supply or lower than expected. However, some people also pointed out that the expansion of supply is not only to increase the number of new developments, but also the mobilization and wake-up of the stock of housing resources.