Dialogue Kurzweil: AI will delegate to more people

Editor's note: This article is based on a dialogue organized by the founder Zhang Peng and Kurzweil at the 2015 Geek Park Innovation Conference. The singularity theory in Kurzweil's eyes Zhang Peng: In the "Singularity near" you talk about the 2045 artificial intelligence beyond human wisdom to bring a new form of civilization, why is the 2045 this accurate time? How did you figure out this conclusion? Ray Kurzweil: The singularity involves things that are predictable and unpredictable. It is not predictable which companies can succeed and which ones will not. But the computer's ability to compute at the same cost is one-fold. This is predictable, and by 2020 our cost of simulating human intelligence is low. Many people think this will be a revolution, 2045 years of technology can expand our ability to think, which is why we determine the singularity. Zhang Peng: Is it meaningful for us to discuss the question after 30 years? Why do you spend your energy doing research on the future, and even a lot of people can't understand its meaning? Ray Kurzweil: We don't have to wait until 2045 to see the big changes and the future is closer now. 100 years ago, grandparents were doing the same thing you wanted your grandchildren to do. But now it's changing too fast. Five or six years ago, people didn't have mobile phones and social networks, and now the world is changing so much that change is accelerating. A colloquial word takes 1000 years to be accepted, printing technology takes 400 years; The phone is accepted around the world for 50 years, and mobile phones are 7 years old. Now, social networks such as Weibo have been widely accepted for only 3 of years, and change has been accelerating. The last 5 years of the conference from the Geek Park can also be considered from the General Assembly for the first time to change. The future is not far away from us, we must plan for the future from now on. 3 years later, mobile devices will become smaller and more powerful, and cloud capabilities will rise many times, which will bring new opportunities to applications. Artificial intelligence will be one of our tools. Zhang Peng: Indeed, as you said, the farther future is worth paying attention to, what will be the field of artificial intelligence within 3 years? What's the impact on the world? Ray Kurzweil: AI can indeed change our world, and soon there will be driverless cars. In the next 5-10 years the search engine will also change, people can not only search through keywords, search engines will understand what you want to search, what you want to do, the machine can communicate with people you want to understand the problem, provide more information. While you may be walking, search engines will tell you that blood clots in your veins don't flow into your brain, but there are some new ideas that I can summarize for you. Machines talk to human beings and understand your thoughts, which is the future relationship between people and computers. 15 years later, the computer will be the level of human intelligence, 2045 years will surpass mankind. AI does affect us.All aspects of life: Robots in education can diagnose students in what aspects of understanding, what not understand, machines can explain to people, so that our education has been greatly changed, everyone in the world can get quality education. Does artificial intelligence make us lose jobs? 200 years ago people were worried about losing their jobs, but now we have better skills, and these skills are like ladders that help us keep climbing, creating more technology, and we're constantly changing the world. More than 100 years ago, most jobs were artificial, and more than 60% of the jobs in the United States were made up of computers, and in the future in China. A lot of work has not been done 25 years ago, and now we find that work is not just for survival, but to satisfy you. Zhang Peng: the so-called experimental level of artificial intelligence products, in our sense it is not very intelligent, and people's wisdom is very far. You said the future and the contrast between today so obvious, will it make people doubt that we can finally reach that point? Are you admitting that this breakthrough is difficult to achieve in a very short time? Ray Kurzweil: You can see in the past some of the fields that only humans can do, and computers can do it today. For example, in the past only humans were chess masters, but the computer defeated the chess master (Deep Blue defeated Kasparov). Of course, computers are not capable of doing everything that humans can do, but by 2029 computers should be able to do what humans do, and software will grow exponentially. I've been working on artificial intelligence for 50 years, and computers are getting smarter, and every time people say, "They can't do that," but 2 years later they can really do that. For the artificial intelligence this double-edged sword, the emotion is human's last line of Defense Zhang Peng: The computer does in the computational ability, the logic ability, the data processing ability far surpasses the human, but the human creativity, the emotion is difficult to be summed up by the logic and the computation ability, is it the artificial intelligence last defense Or will these eventually be broken? Ray Kurzweil: Yes, this is really the last line of defense. I gave you a quick introduction to my theory: the ability of artificial intelligence rocket-type growth. The human brain has a cortex, and the near cortex is the ability to influence language, art and science. Now the computer has such a grading system, can have feelings, but also can be humorous. My book has written about how to reconstruct the brain, the creative spirit and the figurative phenomenon, our near cortex is a very important part of the cerebral cortex, we can recognize different styles and apply to different fields, build the pyramid model. There are many levels of creativity and humor at the top of the pyramid on the human pyramid. In the 2029 the computer was able to go to the top of the pyramid, and of course some people doubted that the machine could not tell jokes or play humor. But now there is really a robot telling a level joke, really let us feel very shocked. People read encyclopedias to get a lot of knowledge, but computers can read 20-Page Encyclopedia. We have made a lot of progress, creativity and emotion are indeed the top of the pyramid. But more than 15 years later, robots will be closer to this level. Zhang Peng: Although we are very confident, but in this matter the industry has a lot of controversy, Elon Musk public comments that artificial intelligence to the human world opened a Pandora box. Artificial intelligence will one day surpass human beings, should we be afraid? Or should I be happy? Ray Kurzweil: A few weeks ago I wrote an article for Time magazine in the United States, and I personally think that technology has a positive and negative impact, that is, a double-edged sword. For example, we have a fire to cook, but also can burn the house, this is a double-edged sword. Like all other technologies, AI has a destructive side, but we have to secure it. It was recognized 30 years ago that there was a General Assembly that was discussing how to ensure the safety of biotechnology, which is now held annually. There are no problems in this field, and we see biotechnology entering medical practice, and many diseases such as heart disease and cancer will be cured in the next decade, but some people thought that biotechnology was devastating 20 years ago. So is AI. Now biotechnology can help us diagnose and treat diseases, we must ensure safety. The strategy can also be applied in artificial intelligence, and we need to design some protective software or measures to ensure that smart technology is not disruptive. Some of the AI in the film to attack humans, but artificial intelligence is not one or two people, is in the hands of 1,000,000,020 people, we have to control artificial intelligence. We are now much more lethal, but we know what is right and what is wrong. I think the future of artificial intelligence in many hands will be decentralized, not centralized, and can overcome disease or poverty, which is more meaningful to us. Change is certain, biotechnology, virtual reality, 3D printing represents the future Zhang Peng: We are interested in the singularity of your university, we want to know how the Singularity University in Google's support to create, what is the purpose? Ray Kurzweil: The University of Singularity is a university, but not the usual university--we are thinking about how the future will benefit mankind through technology. One of the themes is to understand exponential growth, not just 2045, but how to push our world through exponential growth after a few years. We need to consider how to use technology to bring more wealth, health, well-being, education and, at the same time, avoid the negative effects of these technologies. The future spacecraft will need to rely on intelligent technology, Mars detection also requires artificial intelligence, so Google would be interested. Google and other well-known companies are interested in overcoming human challenges that make our world safer, healthier and more educational, and that's why they want to be interested in supporting it. The Singularity University is different from other universities, and it is done while learning. Students change the world through projects, and the goal of these projects is toHelp 1 billion of the population in 10 years. Although some projects have not succeeded, but through practice to learn something, we also have the enthusiasm to help the world. Zhang Peng: What do you think about the development of driverless cars over the years and how it will affect society in the foreseeable future? Ray Kurzweil: There are people who worry that there will be problems with the drone, but even if someone drives an accident. Unmanned driving also has many advantages, easy to accident area unmanned driving can avoid, can save parking space, and have environmental significance. Many other companies, other than Google, are considering unmanned vehicles, but the technology is promising. Zhang Peng: The latest news in Google's Googleglass encountered some difficulties, this eye equipment, head-wearing equipment, it will play in the future what role? Ray Kurzweil: I think this is the right direction, no matter how many years ago we talked about this issue. We need more experiments, especially some specific products that need to synthesize more technology, because it helps us to live better and healthier. Now googleglass on the face can learn a lot of information, I think this is the right direction. Zhang Peng: Most people will fear change, but in your theory it is an inevitable trend. Today so many young Chinese entrepreneurs come to the scene, what should they think of change in the future? Ray kurzweil:20 A lot of the work of the century no longer exists, if 20th century someone said to us "don't worry, IT industry has a lot of work, you can write a blog and do many other things", no one understands these words. This is a real social problem, and people see a reduction in job opportunities, but they don't see the new jobs invented. As I said, the essence of work and the nature of why work has changed, and the changes have begun in the 19th century when much of the work in the textile industry has disappeared. Automation has made people feel that employment opportunities have been lost because they have not seen new jobs. In fact, there are many new jobs in the US, more pay and more satisfaction for them. Many people work in the IT field and get a high degree of satisfaction from their work. Let's compare the lives of now and 200 years ago, healthier than today, and the expected life span. In the 19th century, people were prone to disease without antibiotics, and there were many examples of how difficult and painful life was. Change naturally represents some positive, positive opportunities, but people will pay attention to what they have in their moods and worry about and fear changes. There are some changes that they don't like and don't know how to get better. When we think about the future, we can plan for the future, we can improve people's lives, we can redefine our mechanism, for example, education can make full use of the advantage of exponential growth. The most important thing is to accept failure, brave adventure Zhang Peng: apart fromBeyond the technology of artificial intelligence, what are the technologies and areas that are noteworthy and have great potential in the coming years? Ray Kurzweil: One is biotechnology, and we can treat the body as a software from biology. Biotechnology will change our health over the next 5-10 years. and virtual reality, three-dimensional has entered the game, and eventually we will create a reality similar to the virtual world. There is also a printing technology, may be 2020 3D printing to change the world. It will print a lot of physical world products, we will have a strong open source market, physical and virtual can exist at the same time. For example, you can download the design, you can edit the picture, from your favorite designers to get design patterns. Zhang Peng: In the future development process, how can Chinese entrepreneurs play a greater role in the world's influence? Silicon Valley has been leading the innovation of technology, what do you think is the core of Silicon Valley? Ray Kurzweil: The essence of the spirit of Silicon Valley consists of many, the most important thing is to accept failure, brave adventure. Failure can make you feel ashamed, but to succeed you must try new ideas, and these new ideas may not succeed. You have to try many times until you find the idea of success. Look at the spirit of the Geek Park GIF assembly, in which we embrace change and we are willing to take risks. We can look at the trends in the future, to seek the future opportunities, we do not worry about change, change, this is to achieve success in science and technology must have the spirit. This is already the spirit in China. China's technology companies have made so much contribution in a few years, and China's future is very bright. We need to celebrate everyone's success, because the more we innovate, the more we benefit from it, and everyone will benefit.