Dialogue Wu Xiaobo: Structural problems are difficult to solve labor and labour contradictions increasingly acute

June 4 News, the famous financial writer Wu Xiaobo and Sina Financial exclusive dialogue, said that the regulatory policy in the short term can not solve the structural problems, the second half of the macroeconomic environment is bad, at the same time, "Foxconn incident" also shows the increasingly sharp labor conflict. Regulatory policy ends in short-term Neinian solution to structural problems about the New deal this year, Wu Xiaobo that these means of regulation is the form of surgery, is the external force of repression, not from the institutional level to change, the effect is very interesting; now our country is in the domestic inflation pressure, currency liquidity surplus,　　In the case of excessive hot money, under the condition of foam, the effect is not ideal.　　and macro-control, he pointed out that the overall economic overheating, rely on investment to stimulate GDP, the gap between rich and poor to solve the problem is very difficult, these structural problems in the short term difficult to solve. In this respect, Wu Xiaobo explained that the government's huge investment in fixed assets in the 09, mainly railways, roads and other infrastructure, as well as huge credit, mainly from November 08 to June 09, the huge amount of lending has set a tone for the next two or three years macro-economy, so on the financial level,　　The question now is whether the bubble can be moderately slowed down to reduce the likelihood and destructive power of a bubble burst.　　The second half of the poor macro environment of small and medium-sized enterprises on the current situation of private entrepreneurs, Wu Xiaobo told Sina Finance, the period since 2009 may be private entrepreneurs since 1990, the lowest morale has fallen, this year they are not very concerned about industrial investment, and the overall speculative atmosphere is very strong. "For small and medium-sized enterprises, now may be very difficult, the second half of this year, that is, from now to winter, for foreign trade enterprises may be the most severe period since 08."　　"he said.　　In this respect, Wu Xiaobo in the second half of the macro-economic forecasts, the renminbi may be loose against the dollar, the renminbi may be a trend of appreciation, and domestic inflation pressure is so large, there will be interest rate increases.　　Therefore, he believed that the pressure from both sides, coupled with the increase in production and labor costs, manufacturing enterprises, especially foreign trade manufacturing enterprises may encounter a very serious period of time, external demand-oriented enterprises must be vigilant in the second half of the impact of prices.　　Foxconn appears to be sharp at the same time, with regard to the Foxconn jump, Wu Xiaobo said that Foxconn is a more extreme case, on the one hand rely on the advantages of labor costs to focus on the production of the model to the extreme, on the other hand, the previous 12 jump is also due to the Foxconn model. "Is the Foxconn model going bankrupt?" The manufacturing industry in the future is still dependent on labour-intensive mode, so we have to consider this problem in reality.　　He pointed out. Wu Xiaobo that, as a manufacturing power, the acute of labor and capital contradictions has become an unavoidable problem, including the Honda shutdown after the incident has also indicated that Labor conflict is a serious problem.　　In this respect, he says, the most important thing is for workers to have an organization that can really protect them, the need for an independent trade union to meet their own demands, because if no trade unions in the form of negotiations, there will be no rights of vulnerable groups and large capital to negotiate the situation, so it can only be suicide or violent revolt.　　Wu Xiaobo also said that now private enterprises and foreign companies continue to be the original state-owned enterprises trade union system, trade unions are biased towards the capital side, so if the Foxconn model has not been replaced, independent trade unions are imperative. "Of course, the establishment of independent trade unions may bring about other problems, but in the case of labour conflicts alone, the only solution is to have an organization that truly represents the interests of workers." He added. (Cam fully from Shanghai) dialogue record: Sina Finance and Economics: You have said that November 09 to this year is the most idle year for entrepreneurs, is a private entrepreneur lost a year, now 2010 years is about to half, what is your understanding of the status of Chinese entrepreneurs?　　What is the current state of development of private enterprises?　　Wu Xiaobo: Now the situation of private enterprises is still similar to me, the period since 2009 may be private entrepreneurs since 1990, the lowest morale has fallen, this year they are not very concerned about industrial investment, the overall speculative atmosphere is very strong. Sina Finance: This year, with the introduction of various important policies, the Chinese stock market enters the concussion period, each kind of economic mist makes the economic outlook not very clear, how do you think about this?　　How should SMEs develop in such a puzzle?　　Wu Xiaobo: For the volatility of the stock market in these two months, I think there is a big relationship with the uncertainty of the real estate market, the fact that only the introduction of the property tax has triggered a big fluctuation of the stock market, which shows that the uncertainty of real estate is very big, because the real estate industry itself is sensitive　　And for SMEs, now may be very difficult, the second half of this year, that is, from now to winter, for foreign trade enterprises may be the most severe period since 08. The renminbi may loose against the dollar in the second half, there is a tendency for the renminbi to rise, and at the same time domestic inflationary pressures are likely to raise interest rates; Such a combination of factors such as the increase in production and labor costs, manufacturing enterprises, especially foreign trade manufacturing enterprises may encounter a very serious period of time.　　However, the domestic demand market will be better, if necessary, the second half must be wary of the impact of prices.　　The most critical point, SMEs to know the second half of the macro environment will be relatively bad, and ready. Sina Finance and Economics: you mentioned our country rich and rich not strong, that 2010 years of real estate New deal to alleviate this phenomenon?　　After the two sessions of a series of macro-control in the face of economic interests of the game showed what weaknesses? Wu Xiaobo: Now the real estate policy, on the one hand, conforms to the needs of the whole public opinion, because the 09-year house price rise is not what everyone wants to see, soThere is a great need for this regulation.　　But on the other hand, regulation is the form of surgery, is the way of external force suppression, not from the institutional level to change, the effect is very interesting; now our whole department in the domestic inflationary pressure, currency liquidity surplus, hot money over the situation, so in the bubble under the situation of strong repression, the effect is not ideal.　　Macro-control, the government's huge investment in fixed assets in the 09, mainly railways, highways and other infrastructure, as well as huge credit, mainly from November 08 to June 09 Huge lending, has been for the next two or three years macroeconomic set a tone.　　At the financial level, the question now is whether the bubble can be moderately slowed down, reducing the likelihood of a bubble bursting and damaging.　　But the overall economic overheating, investment to stimulate GDP, the widening gap between the rich and poor to solve the problem is very difficult, these structural problems appear to be difficult to solve in the short term. Sina Finance: What is the problem that the Foxconn incident exposes? Is this problem prevalent in other private enterprises in China?　　What do you think should be done to solve the problem? Wu Xiaobo: Foxconn is a very extreme case, on the one hand, relying on the advantages of labor costs to focus on production mode to the extreme, on the other hand, the previous 12 jump is also due to the Foxconn model, that is not the Foxconn model will go bankrupt?　　The manufacturing industry in the future is still dependent on labour-intensive mode, so we have to consider this problem in reality.　　In my opinion, as a manufacturing power, the acute of labor and capital contradiction has become an unavoidable problem, including the subsequent Honda shutdown, which shows that Labor conflict is a serious problem.　　The most important thing is that the workers have an organization that can really protect them, they need an independent trade union to meet their demands, and if there is no trade union to negotiate in the form of organization, there will be no right to the vulnerable groups and large capital to negotiate the situation, so it can only be suicide or violent revolt.　　Now private enterprises and foreign companies continue to be the original state-owned enterprises trade union system, trade unions are biased towards the capital side, so if the Foxconn model has not been replaced, independent trade unions are imperative.　　Of course, the establishment of independent trade unions may bring about other problems, but in the case of labour conflicts alone, the only solution is to have an organization that can truly represent the interests of workers. Sina Finance and Economics: Your recent new book "Mr. Wu biography" is very concerned about, you are based on what kind of idea to write such a book? What kind of influence does teacher Mr. Wu have on you?　　What kind of revelation do you hope this book brings to the reader? Wu Xiaobo: Write "Mr. Wu biography" on the one hand is Mr. Wu teacher this year 80 years old, and he began the study of China's macro-economy at the age of 20, so this book is also a summary of the past 60 years on China's economic thinking and the path of China's modernization; Besides, I agree with his critical scholarly views, That's what we need to learn from the older generation.Of。 Note: Mr. Wu Xiaobo will be in Guangzhou on June 19 to serve as the first keynote speaker of the Guangdong Mobile Global VIP Club, the theme is "Unscramble the economic fog of 2010", and discuss how to grasp the focus of management investment in the year of regulation.