Dilemma of economic dilemma

From May 13, 2010 to 14th, Premier Wen Jiabao went to Tianjin to investigate the current state of the economy, stressing that: "The current national economy continues to rise to a good, but the situation is still extremely complex, macro-control facing a lot of dilemma, we must calm observation, calm response, in-depth study of new situations, new problems , fully implement the policies and measures that have been put in place, adhere to the active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, grasp the direction, intensity and rhythm of macro-control, and maintain steady and rapid economic development. "How do you understand the dilemma that Premier Wen put forward?"　　We have planned this group of special reports, the comprehensive expert's analysis and the viewpoint, attempts from the economic entity the present situation, the macroscopic adjustment difficulty, the stock market investment speculative opportunity and so on many aspects, has made the deep explanation to "the dilemma". -Morning news reporter Liu Chang, April 17, the State Council issued "about resolutely curb the rapid rise in the price of some cities" notice, as the trigger for this round of stock market adjustment, a short 24 trading days, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 17.47%.　　On the surface, real estate, finance led the market down, however, the deep "dilemma" of China's economy is the underlying reason for this round of stock market downward. As early as March 5 this year at the third meeting of the National People's Congress, Premier Wen Jiabao on the government's work report, said that this year's economic development environment facing the situation is extremely complex, economic and social development "dilemma" problem increased. This dilemma makes the uncertain factors in the future development of China's economy increase, which leads to a unified judgment on the future economic expectation of the market.　　When the market does not understand the context of the future development of the economy, the stock market adjustment is reasonable.　　The "dilemma" of economic development trend is confronted with many contradictions and embarrassment, which makes economic decision dilemma. The first is the contradiction between economic recovery and property regulation. Since April, the State Council has issued a new deal to regulate the property market, the effect remains to be seen, but the sharp decline in real estate transactions is immediate. At present, the land market has been cooling signal, and according to the April National Bureau of Statistics, real estate investment, real Estate index and other leading indicators have "peaked down." However, the fall in house prices is not obvious, to curb high housing prices, the policy needs to be overweight, the current "property tax" rumors have been flying. However, really put down the real estate market, the overall pattern of China's economic recovery will bring about the adverse impact?　　These are the issues that policymakers have to think about. Second, the embarrassing situation of RMB appreciation. As the global economy recovers, the demands of the renminbi to appreciate have been on the rise, but on the other hand, China's export sector has just experienced a recovery after the global economic crisis, and China's worries about the external environment must be cautious. So, in what way does the Chinese government appreciate, and if it is decoupled from the dollar, how much is the appropriate rate of appreciation?　　This is the mystery of the market to be solved. Third, whether to raise interest rates in the two quarter is also entangled. Some experts believe that the April CPI growth of 2 per cent year-on-year.8%, the red line from 3% is only one step away, the one-year real deposit rate has been negative for 3 consecutive months, with domestic inflationary pressures and the market warming up again; on the other hand, the Fed has not used interest-rate instruments, and the European debt crisis is in short order, and the likelihood of hot money pouring into China is increasing, China's unilateral interest rate hike will lead to more hot money pouring in. NDRC economist Hanzhiguo points out that what is more important now is not the CPI, but the deep contradictions in China's economy may be on the verge of a hair-trigger.　　The deep-seated contradiction he refers to is that there is no innovation in science and technology, no new growth point of economy, only by repetitive construction and blind investment to stimulate GDP growth, overcapacity is becoming more and more serious. The "dilemma" of regulation and control policy from May 13 to 14th, Wen Jiabao's in-depth study of Tianjin again stressed that the current national economy continues to rise to the good, but the situation at home and abroad is still extremely complex, macro-control faced many dilemmas.　　He pointed out that the emphasis on macroeconomic policy coordination, not only the formation of the overall force of control, but also to prevent a number of policies superimposed negative effects, and always reasonable grasp of policy. This round of regulation brings property market, the stock market both fell and the "last boot" of the policy side never landed--such as a two-quarter rate hike and a more hawkish housing policy, such as a property tax--when markets were in shock, the top was releasing positive signals on different occasions, especially "macro-control faced a dilemma,　　Should prevent a number of policies superimposed on the negative impact of "such speeches caused the market to slow down the speculation on macro-control."　　Li Kang, chief economist of Xiang Finance Securities, said the current inflation data is not serious, but the risk of deflation and stagflation still exists, the government's regulation of the real estate market may cause demand to shrink. Recently on the "real estate tax" rumors twists, the industry believes that less than the forced, the government will not introduce a property tax, the central regulation of the property market attitude is also tending to ease. The central bank issued 120 billion yuan 3-year 2010.5.19/5.20, the March issue of the interest rate rose 19th, the central bank issued 120 billion yuan 3-year vote. This figure was magnified on the basis of the 110 billion yuan in the previous period, but the demand for 200 billion-300 billion yuan was far from market rumors.　　20th, the March issue of the central vote rate in the stability of nearly 4 months after the rise of 4.04 basis points to 1.45%. In 2010.5.13, the State Council issued "a number of views on encouraging and guiding the healthy development of private investment" ("new 36") document to further broaden the field and scope of private investment.　　"New 36" to encourage and guide private capital into the field, including basic industries and infrastructure, municipal utilities and policy housing construction, social undertakings, financial services, trade and industry, National defense science and technology industries, participate in the reform of state-owned enterprises. In 2010.5.2, the central bank raised reserve requirements for the third time since May 10, the deposit-type financial institutions raised the reserve requirement ratio of RMB 0.5%, agriculturalVillage credit cooperatives, rural banks do not raise. This is the third time this year that the central bank raised the reserve requirement ratio.　　Some experts point out that the central bank's adjustment is to take into account the cooling of the property market. 2010.4.21 two apartments defined as the housing units no longer with loans to the Banking Regulatory Commission, a director Yang Jiacai 21st in an interview with reporters, read the latest mortgage New deal. He stressed that the new mortgage policy is to determine whether the number of housing is the second set, the third set, at the same time, to determine the scope of the family as a unit.　　This with the previous implementation of the two suite determination standards have undergone a fundamental change.　　In 2010.04.19, the Ministry of Housing and construction requirements of the real estate housing strict implementation of house and urban Construction issued the "on the further strengthening of the property market supervision and improve the pre-sale system for commercial housing" notice, the demand for commodity housing strictly implement real-name real-estate purchase, after the subscription must not change the names of the　　2010.4.17 State Council: Excessive housing prices can suspend the third set of mortgage commodity housing prices too high, rising too fast, tight supply areas, a moratorium on the purchase of third sets of housing loans and above, for those who can not provide more than 1 years of local tax certificates or social insurance payment certification of Non-resident residents to suspend the purchase of housing 2010.4.15 State Council executive meeting: loans to buy two suite down payment must not be less than 50% for loans to buy a second housing households, the first payment of loans shall not be less than 50%, the loan interest rate must not be less than 1.1 times times the benchmark rate.　　For families who buy the first set of housing and have a building area of 90 square meters, the first payment of loans shall not be less than 30%.　　In 2010.2.25, the second time the central bank raised the reserve requirement ratio from February 25 onwards, the deposit-type financial institutions raised the yuan deposit reserve ratio of 0.5%.　　2010.2.20 CBRC issued interim measures for the administration of liquidity loans to crack down on capital loans for fixed assets, equity and other investment, shall not be used for the country's prohibition of production, business and use. 2010.1.12, the central bank raised reserve ratio to curb the credit charge from January 18, raised deposit-type financial institutions Renminbi deposit reserve ratio of 0.5%.