Do you still use Weibo? Tell me the reason why I am not optimistic about Weibo!

Cao Chao, chairman of Sina Weibo, has said that Ali has the potential to bring monetization to Sina Weibo, but Sina Weibo is more concerned with long-term cooperation, from the depth of data social and payment. Sina Weibo wants to work with Ali and Taobao to create a mobile business social system. Weibo payment system, is Alipay for the background payment system, each other to try in marketing, trading, pay for the closed loop.

I'm not optimistic about this future. And it turns out that people really rarely go to Weibo.

The core attributes of Weibo are still media, not social. There is a reduction in the number of personally effective information to be centralized, and more, such as a personal account advertisement, which is mainly used to show the hypocrisy of the ego. Previously, some research institutions believed that only 5% of users published original information, most of them belong to forwarding or plagiarism class information. The biggest advantage of Sina Weibo is that it focused on enough celebrities at the time, these big V let the grassroots gather, but this model also destroyed the transmission of effective information, from the central to the personal social attributes, into a follow-style diode structure.

In other words, Weibo has become the talk of gossip, not to obtain efficient and effective information. For example, a joke makeover will be repeated by one of your 20 fans; Some accredited media are forwarding some unsubstantiated disinformation; morality and justice have become the commodities of micro-blogging. There are indications that this means that the user does not regard the account as a platform for self-expression, but as a transit point for external information. Most of the properties of microblogs remain media or medium. This can be seen from the grassroots into marketing large size.

This is also reflected in the user's active degree. In fact, Sina Weibo is still the main platform to disseminate hot issues. But the problem is that as it becomes a gossip-type platform, people's participation is declining. Only in the face of the real gossip of the event, people come up to find some content. This is not the same as the daily conversations on the above. I remember when the Super Girl, every live on the day, Baidu Bar in a boiling. This activity is not really active.

The operation of Sina Weibo is mainly based on advertising, which is also decided by this point. Chao said the future is data, business, and payment. The path is true, but is Sina Weibo capable of this task?

My answer is no. The reason is that because microblogs embody too many media attributes, this results in the loss or distortion of real data. A user of the media properties of the site is not interested in exposing too much real information. In particular, those who accidentally "tell the truth" and "do the real thing" are exposed or Shang or caught on Weibo. And the so-called Big V is also regarded as the show field.

In such a place, how willing are you to publish all your information to the public unless you have a propaganda intent? Sex, region, education, constellation, unit and marriage should be the ceiling of exposure. Such social attributes can be targeted ads, but still not big data.

Second, because of the different attributes of Weibo and Facebook and Twitter, the spectrum of interest is missing. Weibo has done a lot more work than anyone else, but because of its pseudo social attributes, it cannot fully import real social relationships as Facebook does. In this way, nature will not be able to form a complete interest map. And because the activity degree is not high, the user only then pays more attention to the overall dynamics in the important event. Interest ads are also hard to put into scale.

These data are missing, and will lead to the lack of effective advertising. Therefore, even if the advertisement or can reach the user, but because the user's activity degree is not high, or the accuracy is not high, but also causes the advertisement effect to be limited.

So when I look at the future of Sina Weibo, I find that it is because of the sway between the media and the social, and ultimately the inability to establish a leadership position in any one area. Social is the first to be micro-credit, and the media, it is also waiting to be overturned by others.

This kind of sway makes it have a large number of users, but can not build a complete database system. Advertising will still be a profit model for the foreseeable period, but 5 years from now, I don't think people will be more concerned about Sina Weibo than the embarrassing encyclopedia. And after 10, I can't imagine what it still looks like.