Dongxing Securities: Retail Industry Depth Report: E-commerce

&http://www.aliyun.com/zixun/aggregation/37954.html ">nbsp;

E-commerce has experienced a decade of undulating, the three major mainstream models with the ups and downs of representative enterprises and the emergence of this market pattern. China's e-commerce over the past decade has experienced a rapid growth phase, of which the composite growth rate of 90.48%, the 2004 online shopping users turned 6 times times more.

2010, is the domestic E-commerce blowout year, the overall market size reached 4 trillion, the number of enterprises has reached more than 25,000, e-commerce business, Business-to-business, Consumer-to-consumer three models, online shopping (including the business and Consumer-to-consumer) the first Super 500 billion yuan, and the company is in full swing.

The business-to-business model represented by Alibaba is relatively low in technical barriers, in the background of the negative impact of RMB appreciation on trade, scenery is no longer; the market pattern of China's consumer-to-consumer is in the situation of Taobao, in fact, it opens the door of net shopping, which is based on the drawbacks of credit system, product quality and price system in China, With the unified access to the back end of the client, the front-end unified identity model is better than the Consumer-to-consumer mode. According to IRIS Statistics, the tide of the business (including Taobao Mall) to set off or change the current network shopping market 82 pattern (80% market share is c2c,20% is the business), gradually become 55 situation (c2c50%;b2c50%).

According to the rich level of business category and the different channels of the channel model for the portal category (integrated middlemen), Business category (vertical middleman), direct-type and platform four class of consumer mode. From the market share, basically presents Jingdong, when, excellent pillars situation, the total market share of the three reached 65.6%.
At present, the penetration rate of E-commerce is 40%, 800 billion of the business is One-third, the size of 240 billion. NET purchases accounted for 5% of the total consumer goods, and the plan Twelve-Five doubled. As a branch of e-commerce, it has been rising since 2009, however, in a short period of two years, the trend of the industry as a whole has been more obvious. And this year to when, easy to buy, Bowser, Beijing-east four oligarchs led by a single category to the whole category of radiation price war makes capital, backstage support in the background of industry differentiation is particularly important. The former depends on the original profitability (gross profit margin, each single cost rate, customer unit price) of cash flow and external financing capacity, the latter is reflected in the improvement of inventory turnover, logistics system construction and the matching of category expansion. Under this pattern, from the stock to the increment, from the price to the value, from the capital drive to the profit drive is advantageous to the traditional enterprise's comprehensive net.

The profit balance of the electric dealer depends on two large scale and two platforms: one is the effective scale-logistics and sales mismatch, the larger the scale, the greater the loss; the second is the scale of business-single goods high value is the key, high margin but low commodity value of goods even if large-scale also difficult to profit.

Taking Suning as an example, the easy to purchase in the logistics matching scale and superior category of the single product value have a first-hair advantage barrier; Two platforms one is the supply chain platform, the other is the network storefront platform. The core of the former is logistics warehousing, the latter is the core of customer experience-oriented technology extension. From these two platforms to reduce operating costs of space to see, at present, the most important component of the electronic business is logistics, which will maintain the high position with the long-term of the related fixed assets investment, and it is expected to realize some benefits after the socialization logistics docking, while the advertising marketing expense, as the second largest expenditure, will still be high in the short term, Or it will decrease with the rationalization of capital and the return of the value of the industry, and the cost of research and development will steadily stabilize as the scale effect continues to play.

In addition to the smooth and marginal cost decreasing, the outflow of electric dealers ' cash flow balance it construction, self-built logistics warehousing is the main part of the expenditure, the United States third party logistics distribution system developed and China's lack of this makes the cash flow expenditure has formed two completely different development trajectory : Amazon is almost all over the world leasing warehousing, so that upfront fixed capital investment less, not the current period of cash flow impact, but also from 1997 to 2005, Amazon for 8 consecutive years of losses, but still with good cash flow control the continuous operation of one of the important reasons. In China, the logistics cost of the independent distribution in 4.5 yuan-5 yuan, the use of Third-party Express cost is 10 yuan, and the latter is difficult to effectively control for the electrical business critical customer experience, since the establishment of logistics warehousing has become a common choice for many electric business enterprises. From the Logistics base rented "Roughcast room" every day to spend 1 yuan/square meters, the construction of 10,000 square meters of warehouses, fixed costs in 6 million yuan, plus IT systems, fixed supporting assets after the cost will increase to 10 million yuan. We initially speculated that Jingdong's book capital is 6 billion, of which half of the upstream suppliers accounted for, that is, the available funds for 3 billion. At the same time, Jingdong has been in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other six cities have purchased thousands of acres of land, each place will be built "Asian number", each "Asian one" area of not more than 360,000 square meters, we are above 10 million inputs/10,000 flat warehouse unit price calculation, warehousing total investment in 6 billion yuan, The financing means such as listing become the key to the sustainable of the low price core competitiveness.

Source: Snowball