Downstream demand to stimulate coal prices strong Coke stocks opportunities

Haitong Securities that the second half of the coal demand will determine the trend of coal prices, coal prices are more likely to present the "cowhide market" operating posture.　　Investors are advised to pay attention to Shanxi's major coal stocks and coking coal stocks. Demand determines coal price trend in the second half of Shanxi Province coal mining enterprises merger and reorganization is still in progress, firmness is also difficult, but the signs of policy flexibility has emerged, deserves special attention. Haitong Securities visited another coal mining district in Shanxi Province, Shanxi Provincial Government 2009 10th document Spirit in the implementation, however, because of the special conditions of occurrence, the policy forward is difficult. The coal production in Shanxi province has been greatly reduced since the beginning of the year, the economy has been negative, and the revenue has plummeted.　　Haitong Securities through other means of understanding, this policy has been flexible, small modifications can not change Shanxi province 2009 years or even 2010 years of coal production decline trend, but for the entire industry future development has negative impact, need to closely follow. The growth of coal production in Inner Mongolia and China Shenhua is the two main force to make up for the production of Shanxi province. Since the beginning of 2009, the production of Inner Mongolia and China Shenhua has increased rapidly, which has become the two main source of raw coal production in the country. From the 2009 capacity arrangement of Datong-Qinhuangdao railway and the change of the recent coal redeployment structure in Qinhuangdao, Haitong Securities found that the restriction of coal railway transportation in Inner Mongolia has been greatly reduced.　　The restriction of railway transportation bottleneck is weakening, which makes the supply elasticity of coal production in Inner Mongolia increase greatly. In the second half of 2009 coal price trend mainly look at demand, coal price is more likely to show "cowhide Market" operation posture, different coal variety trend. The decrease of coal production in Shanxi Province has made great contribution to the stability of coal prices since 2009; in the second half of 2009, there was still room for growth in Inner Mongolia and China Shenhua, and the reduction of railway transport restrictions has increased the elasticity of domestic coal supply. The steady increase in demand for coal downstream, coupled with the rise in international energy prices, domestic coal prices are more likely to maintain a relatively strong "cowhide City" state, its amplitude is significantly less than 2008.　　Because coking coal enterprise is impacted greatly, the trend of coking coal price will be slightly better. The operating environment of the industry has changed some changes have taken place in the coal industry and influenced the industry investment strategy. The operation Environment of the coal industry has changed, which is manifested in: in the coal supply and demand relations, the demand becomes the main aspect which affects the price trend, the downstream each demand trend is doomed to be different. Among the factors that affect income change, scale expansion trumps price increases. The fluctuation of international energy price is huge, and its driving effect on domestic coal price cannot be neglected. Different types of coal in the coal industry vary in trend and need to be treated differently.　　The impact of coal prices and coal plate two market performance, not only the fundamental factors, more money (inflationary expectations) of the factors. Haitong Securities to maintain the industry "overweight" investment rating, focusing on Shanxi province's key listed companies and coking coal companies. The future coal prices will remain stable, the coal industry fundamentals to a good trend has not changed, some coal listed companies because of the rapid expansion of resource integrationProbability is large, maintain the coal industry "overweight" investment rating.　　Haitong Securities advised investors to focus on the main coal listed companies in Shanxi Province, recommended to buy Lu ' an ring energy, the oil-building, Xishan Coal power, orchid Division; In addition, Shanxi coal mine merger and reorganization of coking coal industry, the supply of the impact of higher prices will remain stable, the proposed focus on Taurus energy, Panjiang shares. Haitong Securities